Some of the better mares Sydney has to offer will kick off their Autumn campaign this Saturday in the Breeders Classic (1200m) and that highlights a nine race program at Randwick. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:45) : Alm Handicap (93) 2000m:
Back Me: 4 Montauk (Best Odds: $2.90) goes on top now in what is turning out to be quite a thin race. He is backing up for his third Saturday on the bounce. The tempo beat him last Saturday at Rosehill where the leader and eventual winner Embley just had it too good on speed and Montauk just couldn’t dash. In saying that, he was there to win and he did what Montauk does- get scared of the winning post. Small field, should press forward and take some beating.
Big Danger: 2 Gold Ambition (Best Odds: $5.50) almost made a mess of things over 1800m at Bathurst last Friday but he clung on and got the win by a lip, more so the fact I think Jay Ford rode a bit too cute on a horse that does prefer to get rolling. Up to 2000m here looks ideal and the quick turnaround suits.
Long Shot: 6 Vassal (Best Odds: $4.60) is on the seven day back up after racing over this distance at Rosehill last Saturday where the slow tempo was really against him and he just couldn’t sprint with them when fourth to Embley. Waller has a great record with horses on the back up and this is a very thin race. Knocking on the door.
Race Two (13:25) : Hinchinbrook Plate 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Eden Roc (Best Odds: $3.00) is a highly talked up colt who was backed as if unbeatable when debuting over 1000m here a fortnight ago where he was outsprinted when they quickened around him, which cost him the win, but he was strong to the line and past it, so that does say he will be much better suited at 1100m here, got the run under the belt and you have to respect the noise from stable and rider.
Big Danger: 1 Veranillo (Best Odds: $2.60) probably isn’t considered one of the top seeds for Godolphin when it comes to the Slipper but I thought there wasn’t much wrong with his debut win at Rosehill in November where he sat on speed and kicked strongly under Avdulla for a decisive win. Looked to trial well at Warwick Farm and I’ll be keen to see how he measures up here alongside several handy types.
Long Shot: 5 Lightz (Best Odds: $12.00) is one to watch here at odds. Ran twice during the Spring, debuting in the Kirkham behind Luiza before not pulling up 100% in the Pierro behind Champagne Cuddles. Really liked her trial win at Warwick Farm where she was pushed out but showed a lovely turn of foot and ran time. Should get a suck run from the gate and is a knockout hope.
Race Three (14:00) : Schweppes Gardenia Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Religify (Best Odds: $3.10) maps quite well here and I will lean his way. I was suspect with him running a strong mile when racing at this track/distance three weeks back but it was left to Blaike McDougall to absolutely crawl them in front and the horse just had to sprint 400m to win. Not sure he will get it his own way here, but if he can, he’ll take some beating once again.
Big Danger: 1 Allergic (Best Odds: $13.00) is a classy stayer that kicks off his Sydney Cup prep here. He hasn’t been seen since the Metropolitan where he sat near the speed and fought on strongly when third to Sir John Hawkwood. He has been tuned up for his return to racing with two trials, the latest behind Music Magnate in sharp time, so he’s been given a good grounding for his first up assignment.
Long Shot: 5 Rednav (Best Odds: $51.00) is the interesting runner here. The Grafton Cup winner resumed on December 31 in the Bernborough at Eagle Farm where he got back in the run and worked home strongly late in the piece when seventh to the well performed and above average galloper Cylinder Beach. Got a really solid second up record and the Randwick mile appeals.
Race Four (14:35) : The Chi-X Sprint (93) 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Dal Cielo (Best Odds: $2.50) looks one of the better bets on the program. He looked like a Stakes class sprinter when absolutely spanking his rivals over 1000m at Warwick Farm last time out, and he did it sitting wide no cover. He isn’t up against much here, and really, I think only bad luck beats him. Should be winning.
Big Danger: 6 Bullpit (Best Odds: $14.00) ran down the straight at Flemington a few weeks back and was ridden positively by Thompson, sitting on speed throughout and the horse reacted, giving a really good kick but was no match late for Thermal Current. The key to this horse is letting him roll clear of horses. Hates being cluttered up, so if he can lead, he’ll take some catching.
Long Shot: 4 Heart Testa (Best Odds: $19.00) was having his first run for Matty Smith in the Falvelon at Eagle Farm where he was ridden cold from the wide gate and though never a winning threat, I thought his effort was quite good without much room in the straight and it was a day where making ground from the back was difficult. Form has been franked with Viddora running a beauty in the Magic Millions Sprint. Goes well second up and has a strong record at Randwick.
Race Five (15:10) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1200m:
Back Me: Sticking solid with 13 Clipper (Best Odds: $4.00). I was keen on this filly when she ran in a Highway at this track/distance a fortnight back and I think she just got exposed to the front too far out from home which left her gassed late. If she can get a cuddle here and have the last, I cam confident she can bounce back a winner.
Big Danger: 1 All Summer Long (Best Odds: $10.00) is a very talented gelding that resumes for Greg Bennett. This time last year he was being touted as a serious Country Championship horse but things went array in the lead up. Ran twice afterwards and won during the Scone Carnival before running well in town and tipped out. Trial at Newcastle was very good to the eye, sprints well fresh and has loads of class.
Long Shot: 10 Our Meteor (Best Odds: $21.00) is a handy galloper that resumes for the Greg Bennett yard. Put together a couple of nice wins last prep before failing and then being tipped out. Two trials leading in have been quite good to the eye. The negative is that he has the bar plates for the first time, which normally is a no go, but Bennett has had success with them eg Clearly Innocent.
Race Six (15:45) : Australian Chinese Jockey Club Eskimo Prince Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Bryneich (Best Odds: $4.20) is a very talented colt for Godolphin and John O’Shea who has the run under the belt, which came at Canterbury and gee he was very impressive to the eye, sitting behind the tempo and when Avdulla pushed the button, he showed an electric turn of foot and won with a bit in reserve. In all trials and race day starts, he has been on soft ground, and the forecast is for rain, so he gets a big tick there, and the fitness edge he has will be a huge advantage.
Big Danger: 1 Comin’ Through (Best Odds: $7.00) is my early pick for the Doncaster, so I am sure whatever he does here he will improve but he might just have the natural brilliance to look the winner. Kicked off his career in the Spring and showed what a top class colt he is when winning the Carbine Club on Derby despite doing plenty wrong. Trials leading in have been good and he will be very strong late.
Long Shot: 2 Guard Of Honour (Best Odds: $4.80) is another with race fitness on his side and a touch of quality. This Kris Lees trained three year old resumed over 1000m here a fortnight back where the big weight and slow tempo was clearly against him, so he really had no hope but his final 150m was very good from a future point of view. Suited up to 1200m and if he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take some beating.
Race Seven (16:25) : China Horse Club Breeders Classic 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Danish Twist (Best Odds: $3.80) is a high class mare who will go close to winning a Group l this time in. Arguably should have done that in the Spring when contesting the Myer Classic but she got badly held up when appearing to have plenty to offer. Two trials leading in have been very good and both in quick time, so she is forward enough for mine to sprint well fresh, and indeed win.
Big Danger: 4 Egyptian Symbol (Best Odds: $4.80) took care of them comfortably at Wyong in the 3&4YO Magic Millions before going to the Gold Coast where she attempted to lead all the way and just tired late behind Private Secretary. I think she is much better when ridden just off the speed and pouncing. If that eventuates here, she’s the one to beat.
Long Shot: 7 Circular (Best Odds: $12.00) is an up and coming mare that resumes for Godolphin. She ran well during the Spring, ending the prep with two wins on the bounce, the latest in the Goulburn Cup when wearing down Sweet Redemption. I’m sure whatever she does here, she will improve on, but she is certainly capable of storming home if they go hard in front.
Race Eight (17:05) : The Star Club Handicap (78) 1600m:
Back Me: 8 Liapari (Best Odds: $4.80) was heavily backed when racing over this track/distance a fortnight back and gee if you backed him, it was just a complete nightmare to watch given he got no room in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer. Form out of that has held up with Olympic Academy running well last weekend. Just needs better luck to go close to winning.
Big Danger: 2 Classic Uniform (Best Odds: $6.50) is a tough, tough galloper trained by Gary Moore who comes here off the back of a tough on speed win at this track/distance three weeks back where Adkins controlled things from the front and a couple of cheap sectionals, as well as bad luck to Liapari, got him the win. Maps well again and remains at the same weight, so he has to rate highly.
Long Shot: 4 Invincible Knight (Best Odds: $13.00) came with a well timed run to win first up over 1400m on Boxing Day here before racing at the same track/distance where he got back and did nothing behind Careless, but he does tend to race flat second up. Don’t be shocked to see a hard bounce back third up.
Race Nine (17:45) : It’s On! In Sydney Handicap (82) 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Deploy (Best Odds: $4.80) is a well bred gelding that is absolutely low flying this time in for the Gerald Ryan camp. He ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he looked to be absolutely bolting behind the speed and though he had to wait a tad longer than normal for the split, once he got it, he savaged the line and got the win. Creeping up in the weights, but can’t ignore the way he is racing.
Big Danger: 14 Nikitas (Best Odds: $6.00) is the very interesting runner here. Talented yet frustrating three year old that resumes for Chris Waller after a frustrating Spring where he teased on a couple of occasions but couldn’t go on with it. Been given a couple of quiet trials to tune up, but with his A-Game, he’d do a number on these.
Long Shot: 11 Salthouse (Best Odds: $26.00) resumes for his second preparation down under for Godolphin and John O’Shea. He ran three times during the Spring and despite not winning, he ran pretty well in a couple of strong races. Whatever he does here, he will improve on, but perhaps wider exotics if they go hard in front.
BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 Dal Cielo
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 8 Liapari
VALUE: Race Six Number 5 Bryneich
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 8, 12
Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 9, 10, 11, 14
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