The best week in Australian racing is Cup Week at Flemington and it kicks off this Saturday with Derby Day. Nine races, four at Group l level. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Cup Tips 🏆: View our Melbourne Cup Tips
Race 1. (11:45) Carbine Club Stakes 1600m
11 Octabello (Bet Now: $8.00) looks a great bet each way here for mine. Mick Price trained youngster who scored a fab win over 1400m here at the midweeks before racing in the Gothic at Caulfield and really, if you backed him, like I did, it was just an utter nightmare. Should have won but just had no luck. Fast splits despite being under a hold. He’ll eat up the Flemington mile.
7 Levendi (Bet Now: $3.60) is a very good colt for the Gelagotis boys. Loved his run in the Guineas where he didn’t really have the best of luck in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer. Could have gone down the Derby path but they have kept him to the mile, he draws well and Ben Melham jumps back aboard.
15 Rellson (Bet Now: $15.00) will be a very good horse in 6-12 months time I feel but I think he can run a beauty here. Hasn’t raced since the Poseidon over the 1400m here where he got back from the wide gate in a slowly run affair but still kept coming when fourth to Snitzepeg. The mile looks ideal as does the little break between runs.
8 Paseeto (Bet Now: $20.00) is the X-Factor here. Tony McEvoy trained three year old who has been electric in both runs back from a break, both resulting in sharp wins on the Parks track over 1300m and 1400m respectively. Has beat nothing, but he has been running time, he’ll eat up the mile and stable should always be respected when they bring them over from SA.
Suggested Trifecta: Boxed 7, 8, 10, 11, 15
Race 2. (12:20) GH Mumm Wakeful Stakes 2000m
10 Teodora (Bet Now: $8.00) looks the way to go for mine. Won two from two in awesome fashion prior to going to the Ethereal where it was just a complete forget run. Got caught wide no cover from gate four (don’t ask), and really, the way the track was playing, she had no hope. She did a remarkable job to run fourth. If she gets cover here, she’s the one.
1 Bring Me Roses (Bet Now: $4.00) is the real unknown here. Smart looking filly for the Tony McEvoy yard who hasn’t raced since giving them a galloping lesson in the Edward Manifold where she absolutely spanked them, admittedly in very slow time. She has the upside, the fresh legs and she will have no trouble with the trip.
7 Luvaluva (Bet Now: $7.00) is the watch horse. John Sargent has had this and the Oaks in mind before her debut win at Goulburn. That’s the only race she has won, and has been disappointing overall given the boom on her, but the blinkers went on last time at Randwick and she was excellent in behind Kaonic. 2000m is no issue and she looks the overs.
4 Lucky Louie (Bet Now: $31.00) is still a maiden but she is a progressive type for the Cummings team and she does look suited. Ethereal run was full of merit I thought given the way the race was run and the way the track played. She clocked some really good splits late in the piece so up to the Flemington 2000m looks an ideal scenario.
Suggested Trifecta: Boxed 1, 4, 5, 7, 10
Race 3. (13:00) Skip Sprint 1100m
Taking the chance each way in the shape of 7 Lake Como (Bet Now: $7.50). Very good mare that resumes for the Pat Hyland team after a hot and cold Autumn/Winter where she was outstanding one run, awful the next. What I do know is that she loves racing down the straight, unbeaten fresh and she looked sharp in a recent jump out.
1 Sheidel (Bet Now: $5.50) is the proven Group l performer who is thrown in here at the weights given her record, and keep in mind she won this race last year. Nothing wrong with her Schillaci effort I thought. Just found a couple better on the day. Back to her own sex, loves racing down the straight and should take some beating.
10 Concealer (Bet Now: $16.00) resumed in the Allinghi a fortnight back and despite being poorly weighted, and seemingly outclassed at first glance, she ran well in defeat behind Fuhryk. That form reads very well for this, she should naturally improve with the run under the belt, and she loves racing down the straight.
11 Written Era (Bet Now: $18.00) was an ugly watch if you were on her in the Rosemont Stud last Wednesday at Geelong. Just had no luck at all in the straight when appearing to be bolting in what was overall a messy race won by Deja Blue. First look down the straight, but off that last start effort, have to include her here.
Suggested Trifecta: Boxed 1, 5, 7, 10, 11
Race 4. (13:40) Lexus Stakes 2500m
2 Harlem (Bet Now: $4.00) does look the obvious horse. Complete forgive in the Caulfield Cup I thought. Looked to be going well behind them but when it came to getting a run, he just didn’t get the luck required. He wouldn’t have won, but would have finished closer. Significant drop in depth here, backed in early markets to win the Melbourne Cup and Dunn takes over. The horse to beat.
Expecting a much improved effort from 1 Ecuador (Bet Now: $12.00). His best efforts in recent times have come over the staying trips so I’m glad they have stepped him up to 2500m. Ran in the Seymour Cup (1600m) last time out where he attempted to lead all the way but just felt the pinch and they were a bit sharp. Should get a cosy time of it on speed here and prove tough to run down.
6 Vengeur Masque (Bet Now: $7.00) is the big danger. He had been crying out for ground and that is what he got in the Geelong Cup last Wednesday. Beautiful ride by Pat Moloney and yes, you could make a case that Gallic Chieftain should have won, but credit to this horse. He’ll eat up the extra journey and is trained on the track, so he has a few things going for him, plus he has upside.
I like 3 Havana Cooler (Bet Now: $24.00) here with the fresh legs to run a race at odds. I thought his run in the St Leger last time out at Randwick was strong. Loomed as a place chance halfway down the straight but just ran out of puff. Should be hard fit now, he draws to sit out the back and have last say, and he does have the upside compared to most.
Suggested Trifecta: Boxed 1, 2, 3, 6
Race 5. (14:25) Coolmore Stud Stakes 1200m
Cracking edition. I’ll side with 6 Jukebox (Bet Now: $14.00). Freshened up after the Danehill and ran in the Blue Sapphire where I thought he was enormous in defeat behind Formality. Just had to sit wide no cover for the trip and he did pull quite hard, which cost him. If he relaxes here, with the run under the belt, he’ll take some beating.
16 Catchy (Bet Now: $8.50) comes back to the 1200m after contesting the Caulfield Guineas where she was far from disgraced I thought but the mile probably just saw her out. Like the fact she comes back in trip, and a track/distance where she won at via the Danehill. and the stable finds Bowman, who won this race last year.
8 Merchant Navy (Bet Now: $12.00) is the big watch here. Aaron Purcell trained three year old freshened up after failing in the Golden Rose where he was expected to strongly challenge Menari. Been given the break and his work on Tuesday at Sandown looked very good to my eye. Draws the right part of the track and will be strong late.
7 Goodfella (Bet Now: $21.00) is the X-Factor here. Bjorn Baker trained three year old who toughed it out strongly to win two back over 1400m before coming back to the 1200m of the Brian Crowley where he was nothing flash in winning, but it was impressive considering the scenario. Love the fact he comes to this race, a sign of confidence from a stable who do place their horses well.
Suggested Trifecta: Boxed 2, 6, 7, 8, 16, 19
Race 6. (15:05) Myer Classic 1600m
2 Global Glamour (Bet Now: $5.00) is one of the best mares in Australia right now and her win first up in the Tristarc was outstanding. Sat on speed, under pressure, copped pressure and 250m out Cool Passion had her chance to run it down but the Tulloch Lodge bone and muscle kicked in. She’ll eat up the Flemington mile and is one of the hardest to beat.
I think 16 Shoals (Bet Now: $5.00) is the big watch here. We know I Am A Star won this race as a three year old last year but I’d argue that Shoals is a better three year old. Thousand Guineas run was full of merit and no disgrace running second to Aloisia, and we know that filly did last Saturday. Very well weighted against these even bunch of mares and I think she’ll give a bold sight.
5 Silent Sedition (Bet Now: $7.00) could be the big improver here at odds. Just fair fresh down the straight in the Gilgai before going to the Tristarc where she sat wide throughout and that was not the spot to be, but she did a good job to fight on like she did. Just needs cover I’d say to bounce back hard here, and she will be at decent odds.
14 Now Or Later (Bet Now: $15.00) is another that could launch off the Tristarc. Just forget she went around that day. Williams hooked her back from the wide gate and from that point on, it was a 1400m barrier trial. She draws to sit much closer in the run here, and if that does eventuate, I think she is a real knockout chance.
Suggested Trifecta: Boxed 2, 3, 5, 8, 14, 16
Race 7. (15:50) AAMi Victoria Derby 2500m
1 Ace High (Bet Now: $6.50) on top, just. Trainer David Payne has had this race in mind since his early 2YO days, so fair to say this has been a long term plan. Looks just about set to come off after his electric win in the Spring Champion where he led all the way and fended them off. Stable have said they will ride with cover, so the draw is perfect and I think the trip will be no issue.
7 Weather With You (Bet Now: $7.50) is the betting proposition for me. Got a slice of $26 for him before his first up run, so I’ll be cheering hard for him. Loved his win in the Geelong Classic. He pulled hard in the run and hit the front far too soon. He was there to be beaten but he really toughed it out and on the line he was holding. If he relaxes, he’s the one for me. Just has that slightly inferior form.
6 Sully (Bet Now: $9.00) hasn’t raced since the Spring Champion where I thought he was rather gutsy in defeat behind Ace High. He wasn’t suited by the apparent bias that day and again, like the Gloaming, he was very one paced, but stuck on well behind Ace High. Gets Bowman steering now, and though the draw ain’t ideal, his ability will carry him a long way.
11 Ocean’s Fourteen (Bet Now: $13.00) gave them a galloping lesson two back to win a Donald maiden before trainer Aaron Purcell threw him in the deep end in the Geelong Classic and he ran an absolute beauty when second to Weather With You. He has the upside and the trainer was very bullish about his chances on Tuesday morning.
Suggested Trifecta: 1, 7/1, 2, 6, 7, 11, 12/1, 2, 6, 7, 11,
Race 8. (16:35) Kennedy Mile 1600m
6 Egg Tart (Bet Now: $8.00) gets my nod again. I think you have to forgive her for the Toorak run. She had the setback prior with the eye, she was a few weeks between runs, and I think being boxed in and dashing late isn’t her go. She is a horse who needs clear air early and momentum, like we saw last prep in a few of her wins, most notably the Queensland Oaks. If she gets that here, weights wise, she’s perfectly suited.
1 Tosen Stardom (Bet Now: $5.50) is a very good horse for Darren Weir, but he just needed to tick the Group l box. He did that last time out in the Toorak under a lovely ride by Damian Lane, who got the horse out in time, full of running and he went right on with the job to be dominant. If he brings that here, he’ll go close.
10 Sovereign Nation (Bet Now: $9.00) wa sectional star in the Toorak, admittedly near the inside where it was better ground, but he did a really good job to get as close as he did given he was a mile back on the turn. Does tend to save his best for Flemington so the fact he ran so well at Caulfield tells you how well he is going.
9 Shillelagh (Bet Now: $11.00) was one of the runs of the day a fortnight back in the Tristarc I thought. Had to come out wide in the quicksand yet still produced some outstanding splits before running out of condition late. Provided we get an even playing field here and she gets tempo, I think she is a great each way play.
Suggested Trifecta: Boxed 1, 6, 7, 9, 10
Race 9. (17:20) TAB Multiplier Stakes 1200m
7 Missrock (Bet Now: $14.00) is one of the best each way plays on the card for mine. The stable was going down the Myer path but after a poor run in the Blazer (1400m), they scrapped that and started again, going to the Caulfield Sprint over 1000m at Caulfield and yes, beaten a fair way, but she clocked the fastest 600/400/200m of the meeting. Proven down the straight and is silly odds.
1 Illustrious Lad (Bet Now: $6.00) won this race last year and there is no reason to say why he can’t go back-to-back. Thought it was an excellent return in the Schillaci behind Super Cash. Sat on speed as he usually does, fought hard and looked home but the class of Super Cash just got the better of him. Has to go up 3.5kg from last year to win again, but I think he can handle it.
9 Ravi (Bet Now: $8.00) got back in the good books with a super first up win in the Sheraco aided by a gun McEvoy ride. Then D Dunn got back on in the How Now and was far too negative on her, like he was in his other ride on the mare in the Proud Miss. Should have nearly won had she got clear running. Would have preferred her at 1400m, but still, a threat.
12 Sold For Song (Bet Now: $21.00) is a ripping mare for the Kevin Kemp stable at Toowoomba but she just always finds bad luck due to her awful racing pattern of getting out the back. That was the case last time in the Tristarc when back and never really clear, going to the line under a hold really behind Global Glamour. Ran a beauty in the worst ground down the straight in the Gilgai start prior, so she’s right in this.
Suggested Trifecta: Boxed 1, 4, 7, 9, 11, 12
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 Egg Tart
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Ace High
VALUE: Race Nine Number 10 Missrock
Have a Tip? Post your Tips and Bets for Derby Day in the comment section below!
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 11, 16
Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 7, 9, 11, 12
$50 Investment= 4.08% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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