Outside The Autumn and Spring Carnivals, one of the better meetings Flemington hosts is Finals Day and the 2020 edition rolls around this Saturday with a very strong nine race program. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:50) 2yo Sprint Series Final 1200m
1 Jabali Ridge (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) looks really hard to beat here I think for the Price/Kent team. Condition beat him first up at Caulfield behind Valaquenta before going to the Valley three weeks ago where he didn’t look 100% happy on the tight track and was held up with seemingly something to offer behind Crosshaven. Proven down the straight, hard fit…he’ll take some beating.
6 Sense Of Honour (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) is a stablemate of Jabali Ridge that comes through the Crosshaven race as well. Her run was quite good given she was back near last in the run and had to come wide to make her run, which wasn’t the thing to do for the meeting, so I thought her run had plenty of merit. Gets the gate to get good cover and dash late.
A rise to 1200m should definitely suit 3 Standoff (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS), who was an impressive winner down the straight here two back before going to Sandown where he was a bit flat footed but sound late, suggesting a rise to 1200m would be ideal, and stable finds Olly to steer. Not sure she wins, but is one for exotics.
Race 2. (12:25) Banjo Paterson Final 2600m
3 Chapada (Bet Now: $2.50 TOP ODDS) has put a couple of strong runs on the board now so I think you can trust him. Was put into the race early over 2500m here two weeks ago and was there to be run down, which he was by Lord Belvedere, who had the drop on Chapada and was too good, just. Chapada seems to be holding his form well so I’ll go his way.
4 Lord Belvedere (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) could win this comfortably or flop. Win this comfortably given he won here two weeks ago and was several weeks between runs, with a stack of upside to come. He could flop because his best efforts have come when he’s had a break between runs, a month or more. Two weeks between runs is the query, but the last start effort has to be respected.
Straight after the race, gee I was disappointed with the effort of 5 Alfarris (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) because I was really keen on him and he did nothing, but upon reflection, he was ridden far too warm by Williams. Much better when ridden quiet and having something to chase. Can’t back him to win, but certainly goes in the Early Quaddie.
Race 3. (13:00) Taj Rossi Final 1600m
Any hint of early speed here for 6 Alcyone (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) and I think he’ll be too good. He looks a Derby horse for the Spring but I think he can take this out. Ran over 1400m here a fortnight back where he was last in a slowly run affair and had no chance but gee you had to like the way he found the line. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take a power of beating.
If this is another sit/sprint like it was two weeks ago, then 1 Cherry Tortoni (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS) wins again because he has the turn of foot to put these away. Both runs/wins have seen him attack the line with purpose off moderate tempos but to be fair, he has looked sharp each time. Good test here, but he should be fine at the trip. Interesting to see how he goes if the tempo is genuine.
7 Burleigh Boy (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) can be an improver here at odds. Resumed over 1400m here two weeks ago when unwanted in betting but was a little unlucky not to finish closer behind Cherry Tortoni, not getting the clearest of paths in the straight but was sound to the line. 1600m should be okay for him and has upside to come.
Race 4. (13:35) Mahogany Challenge Final 2500m
4 Sign Seal Deliver (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) has no turn of foot but a testing 2500m will be no issue for him so I’m going his way. Ran over 2400m at Sandown a couple of Wednesdays back when near the speed throughout and he battled away strongly as he always does when second to High Emocean. Flemington 2500m will be fine for him and he’ll do me.
1 Persan (Bet Now: $1.75 TOP ODDS) is a Maher/Eustace trained colt that has come back in super order. Thought there was plenty of merit in his win two weeks ago over 2000m here, sitting near a good speed and was there to be run down, but was simply too strong in the run to the line. Off that, 2500m here should be fine and is a leading chance.
To me, this 2500m will be a slog, so I give a big tick to a horse with the 2400m form, which lies with the Paul Preusker trained 9 Zoffmira (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS). Showed good ticker to win his maiden over 2400m two back at Geelong before remaining at the trip at Bendigo where he had a suck run on the fence and found the line strongly against the older horses when third to Jukila, who is flying. 2500m here should be no issue provided it’s a proper race and not a sit/sprint.
Race 5. (14:10) Vic Sprint Series Final 1200m
I’m trusting the Front Page form from the Creswick and going with the three year old 10 Hi Stranger (Bet Now: $11.00), who was very good I thought in defeat, running second to the boom sprinter, who is running figures of a Group horse and potentially Group l class. Gets a lovely run from the gate and the key to him this prep is that he’s being trained as a sprinter and not as a miler.
4 I Am Someone (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Paul Preusker trained sprinter that was very good first up at Caulfield behind Tavisan before going to the Flemington straight two weeks ago where the race shape was perfect for his style and was too good for a very gallant Prezado. He’ll eat up 1200m and has upside to come you would assume.
A big improver here is 3 Rich Charm (Bet Now: $5.50). Narrow second to Great Again in the Straight Six first up before coming back to 1100m two weeks ago here where the tempo was against him and he pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial. Back up to 1200m and a more genuine tempo are two big, big ticks for him.
Race 6. (14:50) Leilani Series Final 1400m
You can say that 5 La Tigeresa (Bet Now: $4.00) is third up from a spell, but when you look at her two runs back from a break, she’s pretty much first up still. Two runs back have been barrier trials, first up in the Straight Six and then over 1200m at the Valley, both runs seeing her getting no luck at al. Eats up 1400m here on the bigger track and given her record, is very well treated at the weights.
4 Snogging (Bet Now: $8.50) can be a big improver here. Forget she went around in the Great Duchess race from two weeks ago over this track/distance given she was tardy away, then forced to sit wide no cover for the trip in a total forgive. Gets gate one, so does no work in the run and I think is the main one to follow from that race.
I would have loved a rise in trip for 11 So You Swing (Bet Now: $10.00). Think she’s going really well. Comes through the Great Duchess race from two weeks back at this track/distance when six weeks between runs and that lack of race fitness just told late. She’ll come right on from that. If this was 1600m, would be very tempted to have her on top.
Race 7. (15:30) Silver Bowl Series Final 1600m
The upside clearly looks to be with 14 Over The Sky (Bet Now: $13.00) for the Price/Kent team. Really caught the eye on debut at Bendigo over 1400m before having a month off and racing over the mile on the Pakenham Synthetic where he took an eternity to wind up but he eventually got there to win, but they did run good late splits. He’s got improvement left in him and I think a fast run mile will suit.
2 Smoke Bomb (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Price/Kent trained gelding that is three weeks between runs since bolting up at the Valley. Admittedly, the track pattern suited him, but he still had to take advantage of it and that he did, leading throughout to win impressively. Good test here, but looks to get a good run near the speed and is hard to beat.
1 Barbie’s Fox (Bet Now: $23.00) has done little wrong this time in for the Louise Bonella team. Few weeks between runs since racing over the mile at the Valley where she was no hope given the track pattern and IMO was a total forgive behind Smoke Bomb. That run was a seven day back up effort after a strong outing at Flemington behind Jolly Sailor, so can bounce back here.
Race 8. (16:05) Winter Championship Final 1600m
2 Heptagon… (Bet Now: $5.00) can he win two Grand Finals? He won the Swan Hill Cup in impressive fashion before going back to 1400m here two weeks ago, perhaps a prep run for this race given he was back in trip and lumped 61.5kg, but he was simply too good for them to continue his winning ways. He isn’t going backwards and just has to hold his form to go close again.
5 Plein Ciel (Bet Now: $4.20) is flying this time in for the Danny O’Brien team and he seems to be trained as a miler, which I do like. Very good here first up over 1400m before going to the mile at the Valley when put into the A1 spot by Billy Egan and was able to share the spoils with Shot Of Irish in a dead heat finish. Hard to beat here third up.
Back to Flemington I do like for the Lindsey Smith trained 1 Reykjavik (Bet Now: $14.00). Gee he gave them a spanking at this track/distance two back before going to the Valley three weeks ago and given the way the track played, he had no chance so I think just forgive and forget he went around. Better suited here and can win without surprising.
Race 9. (16:37) Rivette Series Final 1400m
2 Beauty Bolt (Bet Now: $6.50) has her hoof on the till for Grahame Begg. Didn’t run the trip out in the Oaks at Morphettville before coming back to 1400m here a few weeks ago and got very close to beating Queen La Diva, who was ridden a treat in front by Chris Caserta. Beauty Bolt should improve off that and is hard to beat.
Up to the mile I do like for 5 Diaquin (Bet Now: $11.00). Bit of a horror show two back at Geelong when luckless behind Cordillia, but bounced back to winning form with a strong win at Bendigo under a confident ride from Williams, who remains on for this race. Strong to the line there, so 1600m is no issue and looks good value at around double figures.
17 Vistabelle (Bet Now: $35.00) is a Henry Dwyer trained filly that comes to town off the back of a somewhat arrogant maiden win on the Synthetic at Ballarat last time out. Led throughout under Melham and really could have won much further than the original 1.25L margin had Melham been fair dinkum. Good test here, but she’s got ability.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 5 La Tigeresa
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 6 Alcyone
LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 10 Hi Stranger
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 5
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 14
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 8, 17
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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