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Ten races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday where it is Winter Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Winter Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Winter Cup

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Race 1. (11:00) Bowermans Hcp 1300m

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Back Me

1 Barocque Road (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS) is a nice juvenile in the making. Trial form was solid, the market support for the debut suggested he was there to win and the end result was a dominant win from the front under Nash Rawiller. There is depth to this line up, but he does still hold a nomination for the JJ Atkins, so if they intend to run there, you’d think there will be intent to win this.

Danger

2 Backrower (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) looks like he will eat up 1300m for Michael Freedman. Lot to like about his debut win at Newcastle over 1200m. Loved the way he knuckled down late to surge hard the final few strides and win well, clocking the best last 600/400/200 of the race. The rise in trip is ideal. Just needs luck from a tricky gate.

Long Shot

6 Osipenko (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is a Pierro colt for Chris Waller that is on debut. He’s had three trials throughout his career, with two trials this prep to get ready for start one, the two trials seeing him sit on speed and moving well. He looks a nice horse…Josh Parr isn’t riding too great but a good gate on the home track, he’s a winning threat.

Race 2. (11:35) Tab Highway Hcp (C3) 1100m

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Back Me

7 Dalavin (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) looks the map horse. Brett Robb trained gelding that ran over 1100m at Mudgee last time out where he was wide with cover but unfortunately was forced wider on the turn while the eventual winner was on speed and kicked clear. This horse should get run of the race from the draw and only run well.

Danger

14 Summer Glow (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a key threat. Paul Messara trains this mare, who was ridden with intent first up on her home track at Scone and with that, the market support was strong, suggesting she was there to win, and that she did in good style. Think she commands respect.

Long Shot

19 Hurn Court (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) has always shown ability and I think he could be better now he’s under the care of Brett Robb. Big win from near last to win over 1000m at Dubbo, rocketing to the line in an impressive debut for the new camp. Confident he can measure up here.

Race 3. (12:10) The Agency (Bm72) 1800m

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Back Me

3 Tympanist (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS) looks one of the best on the program to my eye. Very promising three year old for David Payne that resumed over 1550m on the Kenso track and while I doubt he beat a great deal, the manner in which he put them away was impressive. He’ll eat up 1800m, on the home track…all points to him winning again.

Danger

7 Willinga Rufio (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is heading in the right direction for Mark Newnham. Market didn’t want him late when debuting over 1500m at Hawkesbury but I liked the ticker he showed on speed to fight them off and win. Bred to eat up the 1800m and has good upside to come.

Long Shot

2 Verbek (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) could have found his calling, and that is racing over middle distance trips. He’s been racing as a sprinter throughout his career but they stepped him out to 1500m at Hawkesbury last start and the end result was a spank job from on speed. If he can build off that, I do think the rise to 1800m is ideal and he’ll take beating.

Race 4. (12:45) Midway (Bm72) 1400m

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Back Me

1 French Bonnet (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) can run an improved race for Kim Waugh. Ran over 1500m here two weeks back where I just think she overdid it a touch in front and that left a tired horse in the straight when down the track behind Philipsburg. Reckon with a more conservative steer, she’ll run a better race, and she has the gate to do that.

Danger

7 Anagain (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) looks ready to win. Jury was somewhat out on her after a plain return, albeit it was the Hawkesbury Guineas, so can cut her some slack. Raced in a Midway two weeks ago after that return and she charged late from the back when second to Momack. If she can continue to improve, she’s hard to beat.

Long Shot

9 Harvey’s Way (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) is a promising animal for David Atkins that comes here with fresh legs, having not raced since April 21 at Newcastle when a closing third to New Republic after getting a mile back in the run. Liked a recent tick over trial from him and he wants this track to dry out.

Race 5. (13:20) Winter Cup 2400m

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Back Me

5 Military Mission (Bet Now: $1.80) is a few weeks between runs for the WaterBott camp after racing at Gosford where he looked the winner when he shot clear on the turn, but he switched off before the peg and threw the race away, getting nabbed late by Hameron. In form, sits on speed, hard to beat.

Danger

3 Pappalino (Bet Now: $11.00) is back on track for Matty Smith. He failed to fire a shot in the Gosford Cup but bounced back to form two weeks ago in the Lord Mayors Cup with a closing fourth to Hopeful. He’s won up to 3000m so the rise to 2400m is ideal and has got upside in the tank compared to some.

Long Shot

1 Taikomochi (Bet Now: $14.00) isn’t going too bad. WaterBott trained gelding that ran in the Lord Mayors Cup two weeks back where he got back in the run and while he was never really a factor, but was good late behind Hopeful. Hard fit now and up to 2400m, with upside and gate one, he’ll run an improved race.

Race 6. (13:55) Farewell Nevesh Ramdhani-Bm72 1400m

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Back Me

I’m with 15 Newley Wed (Bet Now: $5.00) for Team Hawkes. This well bred filly had been knocking on the door to break the maiden tag and it finally came at Newcastle on testing ground last start, lumping 60.5kg. She tumbles to 52kg here, she gets a soft gate to use and with upside, I’m in her corner.

Danger

The smaller field certainly helps the cause of 1 Lady Of Luxury (Bet Now: $3.10), who has a bit of class on these if she’s anywhere near right. Resumed two weeks ago over 1200m here and was good late without threatening behind noted swimmer Mariamia. Gets in well after the claim and this is a significant drop in class/depth.

Long Shot

11 Hunnam (Bet Now: $19.00) hasn’t exactly fired a shot since joining Chris Waller but is fourth up from a spell here and should just about be at peak fitness. Down the track behind Star Patrol at Flemington but that horse looks a really good one, so I like the form and the stable can improve one that seemingly are going like a busted.

Race 7. (14:30) Petaluma (Bm94) 1800m

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Back Me

He hasn’t won in a while, but 4 Skyman (Bet Now: $7.50) has a bit on these I feel, especially with the 3kg claim for Dylan Gibbons. His Victorian form reads very well for this, with efforts behind the likes of Ayrton and Mankayan, who are both proper Stakes class animals, Ayrton a Group/Group l talent. Normal luck and he’ll be too good.

Danger

12 Zing (Bet Now: $14.00) gets very good weight relief and has upside to come for Chris Waller. Ran over 1500m here a fornight back and just battled in very testing ground behind Night Of Power. I think she’ll appreciate firmer footing and with the claim, she’s right down in the weights to run an improved race.

Long Shot

7 Mirann (Bet Now: $16.00) is hard to beat. John O’Shea trained gelding that was wide throughout in the Lord Mayors Cup two weeks back and actually didn’t do a bad job to stay on as he did in defeat behind Hopeful. He’s on track to win one. Is it here? Down in the weights, he’ll take beating I’d suggest.

Race 8. (15:05) Schweppes (Bm78) 1200m

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Back Me

10 Bitcoin Baby (Bet Now: $5.50) is hard to beat for the Ryan/Alexiou camp. Market didn’t want a bar of her when she resumed here two weeks go. It was proven right. She looked the winner at the top of the straight but condiiton just gave way. Better for the run, I want to give her another chance.

Danger

5 Irish Angel (Bet Now: $10.00) deserves another look. Chris Waller trained mare that resumed a fortnight back behind Mariamia and IMO she just looked in need of the run when down the track behind the Joe Pride mare, a noted swimmer. Back on firmer footing, expect sharp improvement.

Long Shot

9 Showtime Lady (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented mare for Brad Widdup that was backed with confidence when resuming in a Midway a few weeks back and the bets were landed. Tim Clark put her into the race from the outset and she knuckled down strongly late to win and win well. Off that, she has to be respected here.

Race 9. (15:40) Ranvet (Bm78) 1500m

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Back Me

10 Nikau Spur (Bet Now: $16.00) is worth a throw at the stumps. His two runs back from a break have been solid, first up producing a closing third at Canterbury before going to Randwick and he couldn’t pick his feet up on the bottomless track behind Bethencourt. Much firmer deck this time around and third up, hard fit, I think he’s worth a 1×3 speck.

Danger

12 Dhakuri (Bet Now: $14.00) gets a much better set up here compared to first up. The resumption came over the mile at Gosford. Not sure he was comfortable on the tight track but liked the way he finished his race off behind Solar Apex. Might want one more, but he has a touch of quality.

Long Shot

3 Strawberry Rock (Bet Now: $34.00) is a fascinating runner. Former UK stayer that makes his Australian debut for the Maher/Eustace camp. He’s just had one trial to get ready for start one, but I thought it was a good piece of work behind Hungry Heart. His Timeform rating suggests he’s Listed class, so keen to see how he goes.

Race 10. (16:20) Canadian Club (Bm78) 1200m

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Back Me

8 Dynamic Impact (Bet Now: $7.50) should love the rise to 1200m. Bjorn Baker trained gelding that was very good in defeat fresh at Scone when back near last in the run in a race dominated on pace, he was quite good in taking ground off winner Redoute’s Image. Like him up in trip, has the run under the belt and will love getting to firmer footing.

Danger

9 He’s A Hotshot (Bet Now: $7.00) has come back really well for Bjorn Baker and with upside, as well as finding firmer footing, leaning his way. He ran four weeks ago at Gosford when on speed and though headed quickly by Coal Crusher, I liked the way he dug in and got close to coming back and beating Coal Crusher. Lands on speed and is hard to beat.

Long Shot

2 Kordia (Bet Now: $21.00) can be an improver for Cody Morgan. Resumed three weeks ago at Scone in what was a pretty solid 78 I thought and he didn’t disgrace himself at all behind Athelric. Tick over trial win last week was a good piece of work and he does tend to get better as the prep goes on.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Skyman

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Barocque Road

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 7 Dalavin

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 4

Leg Two: 1, 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg Three: 10, 12, 13, 14

Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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