The Adelaide Carnival at Morphettville revs up this Saturday where it is Manihi Classic Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out six metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out four metres for the remainder.
Race 1. (12:36) Hit107 (bm72) 2500m
5 Enrico Pallazzo (Bet Now: $6.00) for me. Team Corstens trains this stayer, who let down strongly to win two back over 2400m at Bendigo before remaining at that trip at Sandown where he was forced to cut back towards the inside to make ground and that wasn’t the spot to be. Still, game in defeat behind Tigre Royale, who is flying. That form holds up really well for this.
1 Turf Man (Bet Now: $3.10) is a John Hickmott trained stayer who was far from disgraced in defeat two back in the Adelaide Cup before racing over 2250m on the Parks track two weeks ago where he loved the mid race pressure in front and really, he was the best stayer in the race and won accordingly. Up to 2500m is fine and is hard to beat.
13 Searaven (Bet Now: $21.00) is getting ready for the Oakbank Carnival and this should tune him right up for it. Ran on the Parks track three weeks back and didn’t mind his effort from off the pace when second to Serious Spender. Has since had a trial over the jumps at Oakbank to tune up. Not sure he wins, but runs well for sure.
Race 2. (13:11) Maddy And Chad's Wedding (58) 1600m
If this track is playing fairly, I think 2 A Knight In Paris (Bet Now: $5.00) is worth a gamble here. Liked the run two back behind Cotillion before stepping up to 1400m two weeks ago on a day where being on speed/rail was the spot to be and given he was back near last in the run so I thought his effort to run a close up fourth was quite good. Fitter and up to the mile, in his corner.
9 Always The King (Bet Now: $9.50) is a David Tootell trained gelding that was heavily backed when racing on the Parks track a few back and under a lovely ride from Jerry Chau, with his claim, it came in hand big time, finishing strongly to get the job done. Rises in depth somewhat, but that run was encouraging and finds a winnable race again.
11 Lisette (Bet Now: $10.00) took forever to get that elusive win on the board but it finally came over 1500m at Gawler last time when given a sweet steer just off the speed under Pannell before easing wider and showed good change up speed to win. Third horse has come out and won, so the form has been ticked off. Just needs luck from the gate.
Race 3. (13:46) Tab (bm58) 1600m
Bit of a bludger of a race this. The one that has potential for upside/improvement/progression is 2 Budget King (Bet Now: $5.00), a former Lloyd Kennewell runner that is having his first run for Travis Doudle. Dare say he is on the SA Derby path so 1600m is short of an ideal trip, but haven’t minded the way he has gone in two jumpouts and this race isn’t strong. Doesn’t need to be a star to win.
6 La Richesse (Bet Now: $8.00) is the interesting one. Danerich filly for Will Clarken who attempted to lead all the way here two weeks ago over 1400m and on face value, she was ordinary in the straight, but was found to be lame post race, so there were excuses for her. Her best is clearly good enough. Just hasn’t produced it this time in. Hopefully it’s here.
9 Diamond Tycoon (Bet Now: $7.50) is just under two years between wins so backing her with confidence means you haven’t got much doing upstairs. In saying that, I think she is racing well enough to fill a minor hole. Just missed out on the placings over 1500m at Gawler last start when back and forced wide on the turn. Wanted to lay in as well, so she didn’t help herself at all. Include her in exotics.
Race 4. (14:26) Dequetteville Stakes 1050m
Finding it hard to get away from 3 Maha (Bet Now: $2.50). Been on her in both career outings, each time winning. Toughed it out strongly to win on debut at Bendigo before going to the Valley where she was outstanding and dominant on speed. Good test here, but looks very much above average and should just about take this out.
4 Geist (Bet Now: $6.00) is still a maiden after four starts but to be fair to her, she has contested some good races and for the most part has been far from disgraced each time she has stepped out. The latest run though came behind Minhaaj at Flemington and you’d have to mark her down as disappointing off the back of an impressive jumpout. Giving her another chance.
7 Zoushine (Bet Now: $9.50) is a well bred daughter of Zoustar for Team McEvoy that was well tried as a short priced elect when debuting on the Parks track three weeks back. Looked to get every chance near the speed and gave a good kick when asked by Stubby. Just found Ecumenical too good, right on the line in a bob of the head finish. Has to be respected.
Race 5. (15:06) Winning Edge Present. (bm68) 1050m
8 Larkham (Bet Now: $3.40) looks a Stakes winner in waiting. And I won’t be putting a limit to what level of blacktype he can reach. He produced one of the wins of the year, so far, when bolting up over 1000m three weeks ago, doing a bit wrong in front but he was just far too good. Smashed the clock relative to the day. Hoping he can repeat the dose and confirm he’s indeed a potentially high class animal.
Really keen to see 11 Garvoc (Bet Now: $3.40) resume. Will Clarken trains this filly, who is unbeaten in two career outings, the latest coming back on November 27 when spanking the older mares, which is such a good sign for a lightly raced younger horse. Loved the way she went to the line in a trial last week. Just watch the market with her.
3 Little Rich Boy (Bet Now: $16.00) is a John Hickmott trained three year old that is well suited back to this level. Forget he went around last Saturday on the Parks track when wide no cover for the trip on a good speed and rightfully dropped out of the hunt late. Better suited here and if he can find the lead, he’ll take some catching at odds.
Race 6. (15:46) Leconfield (bm72) 1050m
Best on the program for me in 8 Lakhani Rose (Bet Now: $4.40). Said prior to the first up win that she is a Stakes class horse and she thankfully showed what she produced at the trials with an explosive turn of foot and put them away like a good horse. Kept on ice and gee she was an eye catcher last week in a Strathalbyn trial behind Sunlight. Her turn of foot is too brilliant for these IMO.
2 Sizzlefly (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Sizzling filly for Phillip Stokes that had trialled up well prior to resuming at Mornington where Tom Stockdale put the filly into the right spot, tracking the speed, and once she peeled out, it was race over despite being out of petrol tickets late. 1050m here looks fine for her and has improvement to come.
1 Star Of Monsoon (Bet Now: $8.50) looks a knockout chance. On the quick back up after racing last Saturday over 1000m on the Parks track and despite sitting back near last in a slowly run race, gee he motored late and was one of the real eye catchers of the meeting when third to Equal Love. Up in weight, but if he can reproduce that effort, he’s in the mix.
Race 7. (16:26) Port Adelaide Guineas 1800m
The day he runs straight 1 Dalasan (Bet Now: $1.75), he’ll win a Group l at least, maybe more. He was outstanding in the All Star Mile at Caulfield. Again, wanted to lay in under pressure and given he was only beaten 1.5L, it cost him a place I think. Drops miles in depth here, Stubby on…surely his class gets him home here?
3 Perfect Route (Bet Now: $5.50) is an absolute beauty for Mick Huxtable and can only see him running well here. Had around a month off prior to racing over 1550m on the Parks track a fortnight ago where he was near what was a genuine speed and given the break between runs, was there to be run down, but class kicked in and he was far too good. 1800m should be fine and is one of the leading chances.
Don’t drop off 7 Ritratto (Bet Now: $27.00). Had been trialling up enormous prior to resuming three weeks ago where he was back near last in a very slowly run affair and really had no chance, but the run still had merit to it given the set up that was against him. Much better suited here and think he’s a Derby horse for sure. Hopefully can confirm it here.
Race 8. (17:06) Laelia Stakes 1600m
4 Wings Of Pastrami (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Jeff Searle trained filly who hasn’t done much wrong in her six start career. Resumed over 1200m at the Valley where she wasn’t 100% happy on the tight track but once she balanced up, gee she was good late and got close to knocking off Overkill. Love her back at Morphettville and up in trip, is the one for me.
Back to her own age should suit 2 Bonvicini (Bet Now: $4.00), a somewhat surprising first up winner of the Vanity before going to the Matron where she took on the Mares and while she was held, she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Paint The Town Two. Back to 3YO company, hard fit now, clearly a leading chance.
I think the bigger track and more ground are two big ticks for the Peter Blanch filly 13 Puissance Dusoleil (Bet Now: $12.00). Impressive win two back over 1550m on the Parks track before racing at the same track/distance and just had too much to do against the track pattern, tiring late to run third. Provided track is playing fair, she’s hard to beat here.
Race 9. (17:41) Manihi Classic 1100m
14 Garner (Bet Now: $4.00) has to be given another chance. Was really keen on him when he resumed down the straight at Flemington but despite previously winning there, he didn’t look 100% happy and I think Dunn just waited a fraction too long to get going. Has since returned home and loved the way he went in leading throughout in a jumpout here last Tuesday.
The turn of foot that 12 Shamino (Bet Now: $7.00) has will take him a long way towards victory here. Ran on Adelaide Cup Day and clearly should have won but just had no luck at all in the straight when a close up fourth to Mum’s My Hero. He can run sub 33 for his L600m if need be and that sort of change up speed certainly is good enough to run well here.
7 Everyday Lady (Bet Now: $21.00) is key threat for me. Will Clarken trains this mare, who is more than likely heading down the Robert Sangster path that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since Derby Day at Flemington when down the track behind Tofane in a disappointing effort. She’s a mare who sprints well fresh, trialled up good and dodged the 955m on William Reid Night for this.
Race 10. (18:20) Tab (bm72) 1200m
12 Kenyan Wonder (Bet Now: $6.50) for me in the get out. Three weeks between runs for Ryan Balfour. Last raced over this track/distance on Adelaide Cup Day and was very good off a slow tempo when third to One More Jack. Barend Vorster gets on with this mare very well and her jumpout on Tuesday morning was very good.
10 Oh Mo (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Sam Burford trained gelding that had really strong market support two weeks ago on the Parks track where he had the dream sit off the speed before angling into clear air late and surging hard to nab Two Odd Sox near the peg. He can be a bit hit and miss but if he holds his form, he’ll be around the mark.
19 Two Odd Sox (Bet Now: $8.00) is such a model of consistency for Shayne Cahill and is rarely far away from the action. Ridden positively on speed two weeks ago and gave a very good kick, only to be bloused near the line by Oh Mo, who had the drop on him and was too good, just. I think he is more effective when ridden cold and being saved for a late ambush.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 Lakhani Rose
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Dalasan
LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 2 A Knight In Paris
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 2, 4, 9, 13
Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 12, 14
Leg Four: 10, 12, 17, 19
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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