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Pakenham will host their biggest raceday on Saturday where it is Pakenham Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Pakenham Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Pakenham Cup

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Race 1. (12:35) John Duff & Co (bm70) 1600m

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Back Me

An interesting 70 to start the meeting and I think Jamie Kah can start her charge for the title via 7 Tycoon Bec (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). Matt Cumani trained that was unbeaten going into her first up run at Geelong. The mare just overdid it in front and tired late when third to Turbeau, who has well and truly franked the form via the Tatura Cup. Jamie is a master at getting these head strong horses to relax and I’ll bank on her doing that here.

Danger

4 Lyrical Lad (Bet Now: $4.70 TOP ODDS) is a talented animal for Phillip Stokes that went through the roof when winning three weeks ago at Cranbourne on a bottomless track. He lapped it up and smashed the clock relative to the meeting. Trained on the track here, he’ll take beating.

Long Shot

2 Blow Torch (Bet Now: $6.0.00 TOP ODDS) has the right form lines to give this a shake. Just a matter of how well he is going. Ran in the John Letts last time at Morphettville and found the class a bit much behind Regalo Di Gaetano, who franked the form last Saturday. Back to 70 grade, his best is clearly good enough.

Race 2. (13:10) Momentum Gaming (bm78) 1400m

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Back Me

If 2 Mariamia (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) can stretch her brilliance to 1400m, then they are well and truly cooking with gas. Her win last Friday night at the Valley was one of the wins of the night racing season to date. Led throughout, won by seven, and on times, raw times, she would have gone close in a Manikato. Just needs to stretch out to 1400m.

Danger

5 Groovy Kinda Love (Bet Now: $12.0 TOP ODDS) can bounce back here. Sharp win two back before going to 1800m on Cup Day where she wasn’t helped by the anchor drop mid race and couldn’t run on well enough but was stil3.98definite pass mark. Back to 1400m and back to Mares grade, she appeals.

Long Shot

8 Standoff (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) certainly has the engine under the hood to give this a shake. Ran over the mile at the Valley a couple of weeks back and was good late from off the speed when third to La Spezia in a race dominated by those on speed. If she’s within range, she’s good enough to win.

Race 3. (13:45) Iron Jack Aust. Lagers (bm78) 1000m

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Back Me

3 Lady Solly (Bet Now: $45.20 TOP ODDS) is a beauty for Adam Chambers. Lovely ride from John Allen saw her win fresh over 955m at the Valley. Despite carrying a decent weight, class came to the fore and she was too good. Gets the suck run from the inside gate, is honest and should be around the mark.

Danger

Market watch for sure with 10 Winsum (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS), a Team Keys trained four year old that resumes. He has shown really good promise since day one but I’d say for the most part, he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype, albeit he does have strong form lines around him, including efforts behind Curran and Minhaaj. If he brings his best, he can win this.

Long Shot

5 Huffington (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) has home track advantage and that should hold her in good stead. Just found the class rise a bit much at Cranbourne in the Apache Cat but was far from disgraced I thought. Gets onto her home track and with the claim, she gets in pretty well.

Race 4. (14:20) Fulmen Park (bm70) 1000m

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Back Me

1 Marine One (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) should be suited back to 1000m. A solid winner at the Valley before being thrown in the deep end in the Coolmore Stud when outclassed behind Home Affairs. He was down to run two weeks ago at Ballarat over 1100m but was scratched. I think 1000m is his go in life so is suited here.

Danger

6 Rusheen (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in good order. Resumed over 1000m at the Valley where he got a fair way back in the run but really liked the way he finished his race off when third to impressive winner Unflinching. Bigger track, should get clear air and launch late.

Long Shot

11 Lady Adelaide (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) has been up a little while but seems to be holding her form nicely. Wide throughout at Sandown last time but despite that, she showed good ticker, just missing out on the win when second to Lady Of Honour, who won the Twilight Glow last Saturday, so the form reads well. 1300m back to 1000m I find interesting but gets right down in the weights after the claim.

Race 5. (15:00) 9mile Fresh Hcp 1600m

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Back Me

7 Frankie Pinot (Bet Now: $2.05) on top in what looks a tricky race. He’s flying this guy. Only problem being he is not greeting the judge first. He tried at Ballarat last time but was just no match for a potential Group l horse, Lighthouse. Gets right down in the weights, he won’t be far away and should get last look.

Danger

2 Don’t Doubt Dory (Bet Now: $4.50) can bounce back here. I’d forgive his down the track effort in the Cranbourne Cup. He was near the brutal speed and on that testing track, he was a beaten horse on the turn and dropped out to finish down the track. Back a bit in depth on firmer footing, he can bounce back.

Long Shot

4 Holbein (Bet Now: $17.00), for the first time this prep, is placed in a race he can actually win. Resumed in the Caulfield Sprint, then outclassed on Cup Day before showing little fight on wet ground in the Cranbourne Cup. He is much better on a dry track, firmer anyway, and hard fit now, he can run a much improved race.

Race 6. (15:40) David Bourke Memorial 1200m

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Back Me

1 Blazejowski (Bet Now: $7.00) is back on firmer footing and I want to give him another chance. Was with him fresh in the Apache Cat but the track was bottomless and it’s just not to his liking. That said, he battled on well when a close up fourth to Dexelation. Fitter, up in trip, firmer deck, class…he’ll do me.

Danger

6 Ranting (Bet Now: $4.00) gets the Blinkers back on to sharpen him and find that little bit extra to greet the judge first. He ran at Ballarat last time and tried hard, but as has been the case most of his career, he keeps finding one or two better, this time two better when third to Aquagirl. He’s a threat…could I back him to win? No.

Long Shot

9 Defiant Dancer (Bet Now: $8.00) screamed out of a second assault on his home track at Pakenham for their Cup Day because the resumption was too good to ignore. That resumption was on Oaks Day at Flemington when back near last in the run and worked home with purpose behind Halvorsen. Fitter, up to 1200m, he’s likeable.

Race 7. (16:20) Pakenham Cup 2500m

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Back Me

11 Long Arm (Bet Now: $27.00) looks to be ticking along nicely for this race. He ran in the 2800m race on Cup Day at Flemington and worked to the line well without really being a winning threat behind dominant winner Team Captain. Back to 2500m no issue, does no work from the draw and will be strong at the end.

Danger

6 Mankayan (Bet Now: $5.00) has been up a while but seems to be getting better as the prep goes on. The 3kg claim and his class edge got him home last time out at Cranbourne in what was a real slog to the line. A proper staying 2500m contest will be to his liking and is in the right camp.

Long Shot

14 Mimi’s Award (Bet Now: $11.00) is racing like she wants a proper staying trip and she gets it here. Not much went her way two back in the Matriarch before going to Ballarat when staying at 2000m and just looking one paced, racing like a horse that wants more ground, and she gets that here.

Race 8. (17:00) Vobis Gold Bullion 1400m

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Back Me

1 Yulong January (Bet Now: $2.10) won this race a couple of years ago and I think he can win it again. He resumes for the Maher/Eustace camp, having not raced since June 5 when a strong winner over 1400m at Flemington. He is a bomb on a dry deck, which is what he gets here, he goes well fresh, class factor…he’s the one to beat.

Danger

2 Winning Partner (Bet Now: $7.00) comes here with fresh legs for Team McEvoy, having not raced since the VOBIS Gold Star on Manikato Night at the Valley when a narrow second to Wicklow Town. He seems effective at the mile, so 1400m here, is this a prep run for something like the Lord Stakes? Market will be the guide.

Long Shot

Good test here for 7 Turbeau (Bet Now: $9.50) but he’s hard fit, in form and has a good racing style, so I think he can measure up here. Wasn’t a strong edition of the Tatura Cup last time but he made a mess of them and was sharp on the clock as well in making a sustained run. The hard fitness edge will carry him a long way.

Race 9. (17:40) Sportsbet Bet With Mates-bm78 2000m

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Back Me

Complete throw at the stumps in the get out via 2 Our Mantra (Bet Now: $91.00). Former Queenslander who has had two runs for the Maher/Eustace camp, and I would say both runs have been prep runs for 2000m+ target races this prep, starting here. 2000m+ is when he comes into his own, good third up record, more upside than most…worth a speck.

Danger

5 Kissinger (Bet Now: $2.15) isn’t far off a win. First run at 2000m for the prep came two weeks back at Ballarat and he was there to win, but couldn’t quite finish it off but was still close up in defeat in a good effort. He’s got upside to come and is hard to beat with the run under the belt.

Long Shot

14 The Awesome Son (Bet Now: $8.50) will always have a bit of a boom on him due to being closely related to The Autumn Sun. He won’t reach those heights, but he’s got talent and was a strong winner at the Valley last time, beating Rousseau. That horse is $5/thereabouts whereas this guy is close to double figures, which seems too big of a gap.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Mariamia

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 1 Marine One

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 11 Long Arm

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 6, 8, 9

Leg Two: 6, 8, 10, 11, 14

Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 11

Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 13, 14

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