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Racing continues at Rosehill Gardens this Saturday for a bumper nine race program, highlighted by the $150,000 Group lll Festival; Stakes (1500m), with most runners heading towards the Villiers Stakes (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit, and with fine fine weather for the week, leaders could well dominate.

 

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Race One (12:40) : Schweppes Plate 100m:

Back Me: 4 Trekking, (Bet Now: $2.45) despite being a 2YO on debut, looks one of the best, if not the best, on the program. He has only had one trial for Godolphin, which came last Tuesday here over 900m where he sat off speed before Angland peeled him wide and clicked him up, showing a brilliant turn of foot to race right away and run very slick time. If he produces that here, he’ll win, and at this stage, he is the horse I want to be on for the Golden Slipper.
Big Danger: 3 Pymble (Bet Now: $3.80) is a Snitzel colt that debuts for the Gerald Ryan stable and we know the record that man has with the progeny of his former gun sprinter. This Vinery youngster has trialled twice in preparation for his return to racing and has looked the goods on each occasion. Can he beat Trekking? I think not, but he is trained on the track and the strike rate of Ryan/Snitzel is freakish.
Long Shot: 5 All Too Ready (Bet Now: $5.50) is a filly from Canberra that debuts for Nick Olive. She comes to town off the back of a five length trial win on her home track last Friday where she led all the way and won under a hold. To the eye, it was impressive, but the clock doesn’t back it up because the other trial was run in much quicker time. Still, you have to respect the fact he comes to Sydney for start one.

 

 

Race Two (13:20) : ATC Membership Handicap (72) 1200m:

Back Me:  Leaning towards 8 Montreal (Bet Now: $1.90) in a tricky event. This Waterhouse/Bott runner debuted a tick over two weeks back at Hawkesbury where he sat on speed most of the trip and though ridden along hard, he found plenty when challenged to win. Form out of that maiden has been outstanding with Improvement and Oakfield Ali winning during the week. $1.80 or thereabouts is a tough price to take for a horse jumping from maiden to Saturday grade, but the scratchings and soft lead he gets does leave him on top.
Big Danger: 9 Phuket (Bet Now: $17.00) was green as grass yet was far too good for them in a Hawkesbury maiden two back before racing over this track/distance two weeks back where he was backed at a price but the slow tempo was clearly against him and he just couldn’t sprint. I think there will be a more genuine tempo here so he can bounce back for sure.
Long Shot: 10 Cudabeen (Bet Now: $19.00) was confidently backed to win first up a Warwick Farm last Wednesday and on the turn it was no betting because she looked as if she was going to zip straight past them but as soon as Clark let her down, she didn’t find much and whacked away for third. If you go back to her 2YO season, she ran behind some high class animals. Prepared to give her another look.

 

 

Race Three (13:55) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1100m:

Back Me: Matty Dunn has dominated the Highway and I think he will do it again courtesy of 13 Isla Tristina (Bet Now: $4.60). She ran in a maiden at Ballina last time out where she sat back in the run and when presented by McGuren, she savaged the line to put the field away and win comfortably. Time compared well with the older horses from the same meeting and she just has enormous upside, plus a lovely turn of foot.
Big Danger: 4 Oakfield Time (Bet Now: $4.00) ran in a Highway at this track/distance a fortnight back where she copped severe heat on speed and really had every right to drop out but she stuck on well to be beaten 2.6L. Gate one here and with her early speed, I highly doubt anything will cross her. May cop pressure again, but on the rail with it being out over the 1100m is a big tick.
Long Shot: 5 Kanerupt (Bet Now: $8.50) is a gelding who is in really good form for Gratz Vella. He bolted up fresh at Wagga before going to the Snake Gully Carnival at Gundagai where he looked in a bit of trouble but once he got clear, he finished off hard nearer the inside and got the win. He has versatility in terms of racing pattern and that is a big tick when it comes to these kind of races.

 

 

Race Four (14:30) : Treeserve Handicap (85) 1200m:

Back Me: Tony Gollan hasn’t really fired a shot since opening up the satellite stable but I think he can get a win on the board here courtesy of 4 Dee Nine Elle (Bet Now: $4.60), a handy mare who resumes here. She contested some really good events during the Winter against quality opposition and was far from disgraced each time she stepped out. Trials have been sharp, she looks the leader and on a firm track with the rail out, that’ll be the spot to be.
Big Danger: 8 Painted Firetail (Bet Now: $5.50) is a mare in really good form this time in for Godolphin and John O’Shea. She ran over this track/distance three weeks back where she sat back near last in the run and closed off strongly late in the piece when a close up to the low flying mare Daysee Doom. Was due to run last week at Eagle Farm in a Stakes but the wide gate put that chance of blacktype to bed. Very winnable race here I think and should take some beating.
Long Shot: 6 Tree Of Jesse (Bet Now: $21.00) is a really talented mare when right and I think she gets conditions to suit here. She resumes for James Cummings off the back of a solid trial effort where she was pushed at and responded okay. Looks to be good speed here and she will do no work from the soft gate, plus she she has a really good fresh record.

 

 

Race Five (15:05) : Tab.com.au Handicap (83) 1200m:

Back Me: 1 Painte (Bet Now: $13.00) isn’t the most reliable horse to follow but ability wise, he is probably the best horse in the race. He resumed with a fighting second at Canterbury behind stablemate Mr Manhattan before racing over 1100m here and sitting back in a slowly run race dominated by the eventual leader/winner Princefamous. Really good record at the track/distance and rates highly to my eye…but he is hard to trust as a betting prospect.
Big Danger: 9 Elemenohpee (Bet Now: $6.50) has had two runs this prep, both over the 1100m here. First up he stuck on well after racing wide/no cover behind Upscale, who won last Saturday before perhaps racing a touch flat second up behind class mare Nieta, who will go around in the Starlight as a major contender. Prepared to forgive him for last start because the fresh effort was tough. Ready to bounce back third up.
Long Shot: 10 Realise Potential (Bet Now: $14.00) ran on his home track at Warwick Farm a couple of Wednesdays back and was given absolute peach of a steer from Avdulla to get the job done with the 61kg, beating Hogamany, who of course came out and beat up a similar field last week here, so that form reads so well and like Hogamany, he gets a lovely weight drop here.

 

 

Race Six (15:40) : Starlight Stakes 1100m:

Back Me: I think you just have to trust your eye with 13 Nieta (Bet Now: $3.00) in terms of how impressive she was when racing at this track/distance a fortnight back, sitting off a fast tempo before Parr eased her wider and gee she let down with a brilliant turn of foot to win and win by a space. I was worried that she wouldn’t handle a rock hard track but she put that theory to bed. She can measure up to these with the fitness edge.
Big Danger: 1 Shiraz (Bet Now: $9.00) is the clear watch horse. On ability he’s the best horse in the race but has been off the boil for some time and is now with Kim Waugh after formerly being with Tony McEvoy. His trials leading in have been high class, quick and he has done it pretty much under triple wraps. Whatever Waugh is doing with him it’s working and he can blow these away if he is in the right frame of mind.
Long Shot: 5 Kuro (Bet Now: $11.00) has been pretty solid in two runs this time, the latest coming over this track/distance two weeks ago where he sat outside a slow tempo and stuck on well to run second to all the way winner Princefamous. Nothing from that race will beat him here based on weights, and he is Group l placed. Hard to beat.

 

 

Race Seven (16:20) : ATC Cup 2000m:

Back Me: 10 Falkenberg (Bet Now: $4.60) looks ready to win here. She ran over 1900m here two weeks back where she was afforded a lovely steer from McEvoy and it really deserved the win but she was nabbed right on the peg by the hard fit and in form New Tipperary. There is improvement left in her and I think up to 2000m will really suit her. One of the better bets on the program.
Long Shot: 4 Malice (Bet Now: $9.00) comes through the New Tipperary race where you can read it two ways. On one hand, he was unlucky and wasn’t allowed to build momentum. But on the other hand, he did get out in time and didn’t exactly savage the line. Hasn’t won for a couple of years, and is impossible to trust, but I have to give him another chance.
Big Danger: 14 The Bull (Bet Now: $14.00) was well backed when racing at this track/distance a fortnight ago but unfortunately for his supporters, he just had to do too much work on speed and felt the pinch late when fourth to Multifacets. You’d be brave to take him on here and I think if he is allowed to lead at his own measure, he will give them something to chase.

 

 

Race Eight (17:00) : The Steel Builders Festival Stakes 1500m:

Back Me: 12 Extensible (Bet Now: $5.00) for me here in a really tricky event. She was a month between runs when racing in the Summoned (1500m) at Sandown where her effort in defeat was very good give she was back in the ruck and it was a race completely dominated by the front pair. Form out of that held up well last week and this mare does save her best for when she is produced fresh.
Big Danger: 1 Amovatio (Bet Now: $8.00) ran over 1400m at Flemington on Oaks Day where he got back to near last in the run and was under pressure before the turn, but he picked up strongly and closed off with purpose to run fourth to Rageese…the fifth horse was Takedown and he of course came out and won the Group l Winterbottom. Comes here with upside and has a fab record at Rosehill.
Long Shot: 11 Berry Delicious (Bet Now: $31.00) could be the one to include at odds. Her two efforts this time in have really caught the eye, the latest coming over 1400m here a fortnight back where she got back to near last and really had no hope the way McEvoy rode the leader/winner Religify, but she was making ground late and was good to the line. Should be more pressure here and the extra 100m is right up her street, plus she has upside.

 

 

Race Nine (17:40) : TAB Handicap (85) 1500m:

Back Me: Going to give 8 Sir Plush (Bet Now: $2.80) another look here. He has been quite consistent this time in for Bjorn Baker and looks one of the hardest to beat here after a fighting second over 1400m here a fortnight back where he led at a decent tempo and gave a really good kick but was nabbed in the last couple of strides by Choice We Had. 1500m will be no issue if ridden with a sit. I think if he is ridden like he was last start, that’ll be the risk, but I am happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: 5 Redoutable Heart (Bet Now: $4.40) resumed over 1300m here three weeks back and I thought his effort from the back was more than tidy behind Burning Passion in a race dominated by those near the speed. That fresh run followed a couple of really sharp efforts at the trials so he looks ready to win now second up despite the fact he is sparingly raced.
Long Shot: 3 Cauthen’s Power (Bet Now: $10.00) was just too bad to be true when resuming in that Burning Passion race mentioned above where I was quite keen on him after a couple of really impressive efforts at the trials. He has since gone back to the trials, last Tuesday here, and won that sharply and ran time. Unbeaten second up, I am willing to give him another look here.

 

 

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 10 Falkenberg

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Trekking

VALUE: Race Five Number 1 Painte

 

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 5, 6, 9, 13

Leg Two: 10, 14

Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 11, 12, 13

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 8

$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful

 

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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