Eight races are set down to be run and won at the home where legends are made, Moonee Valley, this Saturday. The rail remains in the true position from last Saturday, where the track played pretty fairly.
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Race One: Slickpix Handicap (70) 1000m:
Back Me: I am a bit surprised to see such a big gap in betting between Witless and Wild Rain. Those two are the clear pair to beat, but I am surprised that Witless (Best Odds: $4.40) has opened at $5 while Wild Rain is at $2.40 hence I am going for Witless. She was too speedy for them first up at Sale, then came here, sat outside Wild Rain, quickly put that filly away on the turn and drew clear to win. Thanks to the Jordan Childs claim, the two fillies meet at level weights from that race, with the margin being over three lengths. Has Wild Rain improved three lengths since? Perhaps, but I am happy to take $5 for Witless.
Big Danger: Wild Rain (Best Odds: $2.80) was a bit disappointing in that race Witless won. She needed a confidence boost and got that in spades at Kyneton, spanking them by eight lengths. Very short in betting for mine, but she will take some beating if Damien Lane can overcome the barrier.
Roughie: Former Port Lincoln youngster Oridane (Best Odds: $16.00) had his first look at this track in a 55 second challenge heat and worked home well late when third to Bullpit. That run should bring him on for this and is a definite place chance.
Race Two: LF Sign Group Handicap (84) 2040m:
Back Me: There is a bit to like about Spanish Love (Best Odds: $2.60) for Kav and Craig Williams. She did plenty wrong here two back, but proved far too classy in breaking her maiden status, then went to Flemington, and again did things wrong, but surged to the front close to home and pulled clear late for a good win. Back to the Valley, Williams sticks and is on the limit weight…ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: There was plenty of money for Orion Love (Best Odds: $5.50) at her Australian debut at Sandown, but she was very one paced to the line yet worked to it okay when fourth to Navajo Run, beaten just under three lengths. The big loopy bends here should really suit her racing style and Bossy sticks.
Roughie: There was plenty to like about the win of Kept Woman (Best Odds: $7.50) on Wodonga Cup Day given she had to make a 600m run from midfield and was forced quite wide on the turn. It didn’t matter to her because she just kept at it and drew away to win, although tiring late, but that was understandable given the workload she had for the previous 40 odd seconds. She should have no qualms running 2040m here after a fighting second to Spanish Vixen last time out and is a live chance fifth up from a break.
Race Three: Ranvet Handicap (78) 2040m:
Back Me: Refectory (Best Odds: $12.00) was first up since Ipswich Cup Day when attempting to lead all the way at Sandown, and for a few strides it looked as if he was going to do it from barrier to box, but he just felt the pinch late. He isn’t really noted as a first up performer, so I am sure all concerned were very encouraged by his return. Should roll forward from the gate and give plenty of cheek.
Big Danger: Second Bullet (Best Odds: $4.80) is on the quick back up after winning here last Saturday, aided by a peach ride from Ollie, who lifted this beautifully bred type over the line. Now that he has got back to winning form, he could go on with it.
Roughie: Darbadar (Best Odds: $10.00) has had two runs now in Australia for Saab Hasan and he hasn’t been too bad in each. The first one was here when eighth to Kingdom Of Dreams, beaten four lengths, then was outsprinted in a slowly run race over 2000m at Flemington when sixth to Phantom Brew. Should be near peak fitness now third up from a break, Williams sticks which is a good sign, and he appeared to handle the track alright first up.
Race Four: 1PRINT Handicap (70) 1500m:
Back Me: Inishowen (Best Odds: $8.00) closed off really strongly first up off a hot speed at Mornington when second to Scarlet Billows. Second up last time in she was three lengths of Group ll winner Griante without much luck, so I think that form does read pretty well for a moderate 70 handicap.
Big Danger: Lucky Romance (Best Odds: $9.00) had a soft run out the back near the inside and jockey Regan Bayliss saved all the ground in the world to just fail in picking up Tee ‘N’ Tee, beaten a short half head. Gets a drop in weight now, stays at 1500m and strikes a winnable race.
Roughie: Leia (Best Odds: $15.00) had to drag the field up to the leaders at Bendigo last time out, and given she was second up with 60kg, it was a task too great for the mare but she stuck on alright for third. Weight relief now and gets the services of boom Perth apprentice Chris Parnham.
Race Five: Eliza Park International Handicap (84) 1600m:
Back Me: Coronation Shallan (Best Odds: $8.00) worked to the line nicely when fourth to Petite Diablesse two back at Flemington, beaten just over a length, then looked the winner here last time out but was nabbed right on the peg by Chiquada. Gets much needed weight relief thanks to the Jye McNeil claim, draws well, handles the Valley and strikes a very winnable race.
Big Danger: I was really keen on Practiced (Best Odds: $7.00) last time out, but he just failed to the Flemington 2000m when fifth to Taiyoo, beaten just under three lengths. I think getting back to the mile and a drop in weight, as well as class, could spark enough improvement for this horse to greet the judge.
Roughie: The New Boy… (Best Odds: $9.00) more like The Digusting Boy, because he just doesn’t like winning, but he did sit outside a pretty good speed last time out at Flemington and wasn’t beaten far behind impressive winner Floatmyboat. Ollie booked to ride, drawn well and should get a good run on the speed this time.
Race Six: WeDrive.com.au VOBIS Gold Carat 1200m:
Back Me: Really keen here on Fast Cash (Best Odds: $3.80), who resumes from a break. He was a dominant winner at Swan Hill on debut, then ran second at Bendigo before being desperately unlucky here when second to Rich Enuff before running sixth at Flemington to Merion. I think he is a very underrated three year old and he could well stamp himself as a really good one with a win here, and I am confident he can from the good gate.
Big Danger: Profit Share (Best Odds: $2.80) is a very good three year old himself who has been excellent in three runs this time in, winning first up at Seymour before running second at his next two outings at Ballarat and Flemington respectively, with the last start behind Madam Gangster, who was most impressive in winning again last Saturday. Drawn awkwardly but has alot of talent and the stable and rider are in good form.
Roughie: Rough Justice (Best Odds: $4.50) loomed to win last time out over 1200m at Flemington against the older horses but just missed out in a four way photo finish. Handles the track well, back to his own age and gets the blinkers for the first time.
Race Seven: Telstra Phonewords Handicap (78) 1000m:
Back Me: Pink Perfection (Best Odds: $4.10) led all the way down the Flemington straight last time out at a good tempo, narrowly holding on. Should comfortably kick up from the inside gate, and with only 52kg on her back, she should take some beating.
Big Danger: Spartan Warrior (Best Odds: $11.00) didn’t have the best of luck last time out at Morphettville Parks, and only got clear 200m out, but he probably should have finished off a bit better. He draws to get the gun sit off Pink Perfection here and looks a great knockout chance provided he improves a touch from last start.
Roughie: Pretty Possum (Best Odds: $13.00) led them up at a really good clip at Benalla last time out and was just too speedy for her rivals, winning comfortably and running good time. Bit more depth here, but draws well and should get the nice sit off the hot tempo.
Race Eight: Sportingbet Powered By William Hill Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: Best bet on the card here in the shape of Reldas (Best Odds: $1.80). He was very stiff not to win first up when third to Last Sight, then Nick Hall jumped on and had the horse out of trouble, sitting wide with cover before peeling, letting down and winning by seven lengths without being fully extended. Looks the winner here.
Big Danger: I didn’t mind Bishops Castle (Best Odds: $8.50) at a price here last time out, and he was brave in defeat considering he was made to work hard for the lead and that effort just told the final 200m when fifth to Magnus Reign. Should have little trouble finding the lead here, and he should give some cheek on speed.
Roughie: Pixie Eyes (Best Odds: $18.00) has finished a close second at her first two runs this prep, starting off at Bendigo behind Search Squad and then at Mornington when just failing to pick up Magnus Lad. Ordinary record here, but draws well and has B Rawiller riding.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 10 Reldas
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Fast Cash
VALUE: Race Three Number 14 Refectory
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 13
Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 9, 11
Leg Four: 10
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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