The Summer Carnival at Ascot wraps up this Saturday with a brilliant program, highlighted by the $500,000 Group ll Perth Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (15:29) : Amelia Park Lamb Handicap (66+) 2200m:
Back Me: 2 Preselection (Bet Now: $5.00) deserves a crack at this trip after being such a strong winner over 1800m here last time out. She is a really tough horse who loves a struggle and she got that in the win. Nothing flash or fancy about it but it was strong. She is a winner at this distance range and did perform well with Star Exhibit last prep, who of course won the ATA last weekend.
Big Danger: 1 Mosserati (Bet Now: $1.90) was a dominant winner over 2100m here before stepping up to this trip where he chased hard off a hot speed and finished off strongly but couldn’t quite reel in Already Famous, who pinched the break and held on. He has had the two hard runs over the trip now, so he should be ready to go and prove hard to hold out.
Long Shot: 8 Toppa Dawozza (Bet Now: $21.00) is a horse I couldn’t back to win even if my life depended on it, but there was a bit of merit to his last start third over this track/distance last Wednesday where he sat off a slow tempo and chased hard all the way but couldn’t quite reel in the leaders. Whiting jumps back aboard and he’ll do no work from the gate.
Race Two (16:04) : James Boags Premium Handicap (72+) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Dendee (Bet Now: $4.20) is a mare who has been really good in three runs this time in. She landed some big bets when resuming here on Winterbottom Day under the guidance of Tim Clark and she has been quite solid in two runs since, the latest coming three weeks back over the mile here behind Astronomite in a strong form race. Back to 1200m is no issue and she has a touch of class on her side.
Big Danger: 5 Dezzie’s Dream (Bet Now: $5.50) is a former kiwi who raced three times for Adam Durrant during the Winter which yielded just one win, which came first up and in impressive fashion. Now with Team Williams and her recent Lark Hill trial placing looked very good to the eye. Hard to beat.
Long Shot: 1 Corporate Larrikin (Bet Now: $16.00) was first up for 238 days when racing over 1100m here two weeks ago where he sat just off the speed and fought on quite well in defeat when fifth to Volkhoff, who will go around as a leading contender in the Summer Scorcher. Draws a soft gate and Johnston-Porter rides the horse very well.
Race Three (16:44) : Get The Tabtouch Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Gatting (Bet Now: $3.00) is a talented gelding who has been outstanding overall this prep. He stepped up to the big boys a fortnight back over 1500m here where he got back in the run and was seemingly never a winning threat, but gee the final 150m he just savaged the line and ended up drawing clear. Back to 1200m is the obvious query, but he is very promising.
Big Danger: 6 Carocapo (Bet Now: $4.20) is a smart looking gelding for Jim Taylor who is more than capable of measuring up here. Had several nice trials under the belt prior to debuting over 1100m where he was confidently backed late and the punters faith was rewarded with a commanding display. Has to do it an extra 100m but you always have to respect the stable with these up and comers.
Long Shot: 10 Miss Lawrance (Bet Now: $7.50) won two on the trot at the provincials with a spell in between. Trainer Steve Wolf then sent him to this track/distance a fortnight back where she sat off speed and fought on strongly, not beaten far at all, when a length fifth to Lord Ludlow, who ran well without much luck last weekend. Capable of bouncing back hard third up from a break.
Race Four (17:24) : La Trice Classic 1800m:
Back Me: 4 Cosmic Storm (Bet Now: $2.10) just picks herself here I think. She ran in the Starstruck (1600m) here a fortnight back where she was heavily backed late in betting and aided by a peach from Pike, the mare proved too classy for her rivals and was strong to the line. Ran third in this race last year but is a much better mare 12 months on.
Big Danger: 3 Ideal Image (Bet Now: $8.50) won this race last year and appears to be ticking over well enough to defend her title. She was outclassed in the Railway before going to the Starstruck where she got well back in the run in what was a messy race and didn’t have the best of luck behind Cosmic Storm. Just needs clear running and a bit more of a genuine tempo to be right in the finish.
Long Shot: 1 Balmont Girl (Bet Now: $13.00) contested some the key lead ups to the Railway before taking the step back to her own sex when contesting the Starstruck and she tried very hard nearer the inside but couldn’t quite finish off when fourth to Cosmic Storm. Doubt she will turn the tables, but she should run well nonetheless.
Race Five (18:00) : Tabtouch Race Replays Handicap (72+) 1500m:
Back Me: 1 Pounamu (Bet Now: $3.80) on top for me despite the weight impost. Oliver didn’t give him the best of steers over the mile here two back before dropping back to 1400m and his class got him, charging at them late to get the job done in the last few strides. Looks suited up to 1500m and though rising 2kg in weight, I still think he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: 7 Cronkite (Bet Now: $3.40) is a gelding in ripping form who looks a major threat here. He ran in that race won by Pounamu and gee his effort was very good in defeat. He got a long way back in the run and Pike almost pulled off the magic steer, but he had to settle for a close up third. Gets a 2kg weight swing on that horse and Pike sticks.
Long Shot: 3 Special Delivery (Bet Now: $7.00) has been given a six week freshen up since running midfield behind Chocolate Holic in the Carbine Club on Railway Day where he got back in the run and closed off hard despite the dawdling tempo. He flies fresh and just looks so well weighted after the claim.
Race Six (18:40) : Mumm Champagne Handicap (66+) 1100m:
Back Me: 10 Presentatie (Bet Now: $9.00) is another kiwi for Team Williams/Bob Peters who ran well during the Winter in some hot YO races but she just couldn’t quite crack it for a win. Been given a really good break since and I loved her recent trial effort at Lark Hill where she about her business quite nicely.
Big Danger: 6 Just Act Natural (Bet Now: $5.00) should be forgiven for his first up failure over this track/distance four weeks ago given he copped way too much pressure on speed and given he was first up, plus the horse pestering him was hard fit, he couldn’t sustain it and weakened late. I think the lead is there for him, and with a cheap sectional, he’ll take some stopping.
Long Shot: 7 Castle Retreat (Bet Now: $34.00) resumed at the midweeks three weeks ago where he led at a steady tempo but couldn’t quite shake them off and had to settle for fourth to Crusoe. Ryan Hill jumps on and the senior rider on now should toughen this horse right up and he does have some tidy second up stats.
Race Seven (19:15) : Schweppes Summer Scorcher 1000m:
Back Me: Keen here on the mare 11 Volkhoff (Bet Now: $4.20). She loved the fast tempo when racing here over 1100m here a fortnight back and when Casey eased her to the outside, she put the race away in a couple of strides and won with a fair bit of class and quality. Back to 1000m is no issue and they will go crazy hard here.
Big Danger: 8 King’s Troop (Bet Now: $5.00) is such an interesting runner here. Former Gerald Ryan galloper owned by Arrowfield that was solid and is now racing in WA under the care of Chris Gangemi. This bloke has trialled in preparation for his WA debut and he has really impressed me in the way he has trialled. If he brings his A-game, he’d spank these.
Long Shot: 1 Durendal (Bet Now: $8.50) is such an interesting runner here. Former Ellerton/Zahra sprinter from Melbourne that is now under the care of Chris Gangemi. Had some really good form during the Melbourne Spring in some solid Stakes races. 1000m might be short of his best, but his class will take him a long way towards victory.
Race Eight (20:00) : Tabtouch Perth Cup 2400m:
Back Me: Looks a race in two between 8 Kia Ora Koutou (Bet Now: $3.20) and Perfect Reflection with a slight leaning towards the former. He had been teasing for a long time, pretty much since his unlucky effort behind Tarzino in the Victoria Derby last year, but he put it all together impressively last time out in the JRA Cup when ridden on speed and he was strong to the line. 2400m is perfect, he’s at peak fitness now and is on the minimum. Ticks the boxes for me.
Big Danger: 1 Perfect Reflection (Bet Now: $5.00) is a wonderful mare for Team Williams and Bob Peters who started odds on over 2100m here a fortnight back in the Ted Van Heemst but she looked no hope in the run as the tearaway leader Fathoms Of Gold just kept running and the pack wasn’t making an impression until the home turn and then Pike weaved his magic to get the mare home over the final 75m. She has to carry the grandstand, but she is the clear class runner and class will take her a long way towards victory.
Long Shot: 15 Zarantz (Bet Now: $15.00) comes through the same race as Perfect Reflection and his effort in defeat was very good. He had to do a fair bit of work to be in the front division of the pack to drag up to Fathoms Of Gold and that effort was just too much but he stuck on really well to run fourth, beaten just under two lengths. He gets a lovely weight drop here and is a sharp improver at a price.
Race Nine (20:45) : Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap (1MW) 1500m:
Back Me: Keen here on 8 Point (Bet Now: $6.00) to bounce back into the winners list. He ran over the mile here a fortnight back and was just run off his legs by the tearaway leader Gloryland, who led them up at a good gallop and that got a lot of runners out of their comfort zone, including this bloke. Third up now, so he should just about be ready to bounce back.
Big Danger: 11 Romelo (Bet Now: $4.00) is the very interesting runner here. Former kiwi that had three runs in WA in his first prep here and he didn’t quite reach expectations. Wasn’t asked to do much in a recent Lark Hill trial but you have to respect the fact that Pike steers and has chosen him.
Long Shot: 2 Baraki Beats (Bet Now: $9.00) will be suited by the slight distance increase after racing over 1400m here last time out where he surprisingly got a long way back in the run and finished off okay without really threatening behind Pounamu. He is better when ridden near the speed and if that eventuates here, he will be a threat.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 8 Kira Ora Koutou
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 11 Volkhoff
VALUE: Race Nine Number 8 Point
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 6, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8, 11
Leg Three: 1, 8
Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 8, 10, 11
$50 Investment= 41.66% of the dividend if successful
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