Morphettville Parks is where South Australian will take place this Saturday, and this will be the second meeting where we get to see the youngsters in South Australia. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:32) : William Hill Plate 1000m:
Back Me: Northern Lass (Best Odds: $5.50) was odds on when debuting over this track/distance a month back where she just looked in need of the experience when third to Mr Markou. She wobbled badly on the turn and didn’t really want to run straight in the run home. Has the run under the belt and is in the right stable.
Big Danger: Neapolitan (Best Odds: $2.20) is a first starter for Phillip Stokes by Denman out of Viennetta, a Group ll winning mare from New Zealand who produced Golden Archer, a multiple Stakes winner and did run third to stablemate Black Caviar in the Lightning. This filly looked sharp in a recent trial here behind Manuel, who went on to run well at Flemington. Runner up won the lone two year old race in Adelaide.
Roughie: Day Spa (Best Odds: $16.00) is an interesting type. She is a first starter for Tony McEvoy who placed in a recent Murray Bridge trial. Interesting to note that Neilson elects to ride this filly ahead of Northern Lass. Watch market moves with this one.
Race Two (13:08) : Akeed Mofeed At Goldin Farms Handicap (82) 1950m:
Back Me: I like that October Date (Best Odds: $2.90) is on the quick back up. He ran over 1400m here last week and failed badly when finishing second last behind Counter Spin despite going around as favourite. Hasn’t done the seven day back up before, but on class, he is clearly the best horse in the race.
Big Danger: Wicked Tycoon (Best Odds: $3.50) ran over 1800m at Morphettville a couple of weeks and was given every chance in the run by Caitlin Jones, but the seven year old couldn’t hold out the finishing burst of Have Plenty. He has won at this distance before and is in just ripping form.
Roughie: Frost Dodger (Best Odds: $7.50) ran fourth in that 1800m race mentioned above, and though he was under pressure before the home turn, he just kept finding under hard riding and kicked on strongly for fourth. He has a very good record at the track/distance, he’ll lead and he will take some beating.
Race Three (13:48) : Quayclean Handicap (82) 1550m:
Back Me: Looks just the perfect race for Back On Target (Best Odds: $1.65). He led everywhere bar the last couple of strides in the Murray Bridge Cup (1600m) when second to Excites Zelady, who ran a beauty at the Valley last Friday night. Back On Target is near unbeatable on the Parks track, back in class…just wins IMO.
Big Danger: Burnro (Best Odds: $6.00) broke through for a well deserved win last time out over 1400m on this track on October 3. It had been a little while since he had greeted the judge. Now that he has got the win on the board, he could go right on with it.
Roughie: Martian (Best Odds: $12.00) could be an improver. He wasn’t too bad when resuming over 1200m at Morphettville when finishing ninth to the above average sprinter Northern Zhar. He can perform well second up, and outside Back On Target, this is a thin race, so he could sneak a place at odds.
Race Four (14:33) : David Loy Maiden Plate 1400m:
Back Me: Not much depth here. I’ll go with China Town (Best Odds: $4.40) but with no confidence. She ran at Murray Bridge last week and attempted to lead all the way but was grabbed in the last couple of strides by Bang For Ya Buck. Up in distance is some query, but she will be on speed and on this track, that is such an advantage.
Big Danger: Materialised (Best Odds: $6.50) was well backed in that Murray Bridge, but the daughter of Authorized couldn’t get into the race from the back and had to settle for ninth, beaten just over six lengths. I’m respecting the market support for her there, and this race isn’t strong.
Roughie: Owl On The Prowl (Best Odds: $21.00) sat on speed last time out at Strathalbyn and fought on well when running fourth to Optimize, who is a definite chance in the next race. Harder here, but will be up on speed and is an outside winning chance.
Race Five (15:13) : Exelsuper Handicap (70) 1250m:
Back Me: Yoenis (Best Odds: $2.50) was crunched in betting when running over 1200m at Morphettville and thanks to a gun on speed ride from Joe Bowditch, the son of I Am Invincible just bolted in and won with ease. Steps up in class, but this looks a very winnable race.
Big Danger: Caro Kann (Best Odds: $6.00) has been given a six week freshen up since failing over 1200m at Morphettville behind Beau Rivage, who has run quite well in a few runs since. She is the clear class runner, and if she is anywhere near right, she will take some beating.
Roughie: Optimize (Best Odds: $18.00) was excellent in her debut win at Strathalbyn where she had to make a long and sustained run yet still finished best for a strong victory. Harder here, but small field suits and the rider is in cracking form at the moment.
Race Six (15:58) : Schweppes Handicap (80) 1400m:
Back Me: Trupt (Best Odds: $3.80) scored a strong win over 1200m here two back before running on the Morphettville track over 1250m and running a game second to the above average sprinter Northern Zhar. Easier here, draws well and gun apprentice Dylan Caboche takes the steer.
Big Danger: Sheez On Top (Best Odds: $5.50) is on the quick back up after racing over 1250m here last Saturday where she charged home late to just miss out on picking up impressive winner Scanty. She has a very good record at 1400m and this is a suitable target, and jockey Simon Price remains on.
Roughie: Sagapuss (Best Odds: $6.00) steps up in trip after running over 1200m on the Morphettville track where she charged home from near last to run fifth to Impulse Diavlo, who ran well without luck last week. She has a solid record at the track and senior rider takes over.
Race Seven (16:43) : Peter Elberg Funerals Handicap (70) 1000m:
Back Me: Alabama Missile (Best Odds: $3.00) is a talented mare that resumes for David Jolly. She performed very well during the Winter without winning, but she looks on target for a winning prep this time in after a slick trial win at Murray Bridge. Gate one is a big plus.
Big Danger: I Am Relentless (Best Odds: $16.00) could be an improver here at odds. Last few runs have been okay, but this race doesn’t look overly strong, down in the weights and stable rider steers. Hard to beat on his best day.
Roughie: I Got A Turbo (Best Odds: $13.00) resumed at Gawler and worked home well late without threatening when fifth to Sagabella. She was due to run last Wednesday but was scratched and instead targets a harder race here. Perhaps some stable confidence?
Race Eight (17:28) : Hughes Chauffeured Limousines Handicap (90) 1250m:
Back Me: Brimarvi Prince (Best Odds: $9.00) has had two runs back from a spell. He resumed at Gawler and closed off strongly late when a close up second to Last Day (Run well in a Group ll since). Brimarvi Prince then went to the sprint race at Murray Bridge and couldn’t get into the race behind Jennyfromtheblock, who ran a cracker here last weekend. Easier assignment here for Brimarvi Prince and should take some beating.
Big Danger: Dr Dapper (Best Odds: $4.80) resumed over 1200m at Morphettville three weeks back where he stuck to the task quite gamely when third to Swinging Arms and Counter Spin. Runner up won last Saturday and the winner pushed a Group l winner in a Stakes race so the form is outstanding and this horse is a second up winner.
Roughie: Double Pockets (Best Odds: $7.00) ran third in that Murray Bridge race Jennyfromtheblock suited in, and he was good considering he was run off his legs early, but he made up good ground late in the race. He races very well at this track and will get every chance from gate one with Hurdle remaining on.
Race Nine (18:03) : MAC Drink Driving? GROW UP Handicap (64) 1400m:
Back Me: Pretty keen here on Sovereign Duke (Best Odds: $6.00) in the get out stakes. He was very good in winning last week at Balaklava, doing some work on speed and fighting on strongly for a determined win. Harder here, but should get the run of the race and both stable and jockey are in super form.
Big Danger: Impulse Diavlo (Best Odds: $2.80) is on the quick back up after racing over 1250m here last Saturday where he had no luck at all when fourth to Magnus Knight after getting too far back in the run. 1400m is perfect and I like that he is backing up.
Roughie: Foreign Affair (Best Odds: $5.00) ran under the Cranbourne lights a couple of weeks back and worked home strongly from the back to run fifth to Plot The Course, who goes around at Bendigo on Wednesday and at the time of doing this preview, that Bendigo race hadn’t been run. Foreign Affair’s two runs prior were excellent but and you always have to respect Victorian trained runners.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Sovereign Duke
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Brimarvi Prince
VALUE: Race Three Number 4 Martian
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 11
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 10, 11
Leg Three: 2, 3, 9
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 11, 12
$50 Investment= 9.25% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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