Racing in the West this Saturday is at Ascot, where it is Asian Beau Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (15:33) : Seacorp Plate 1100m:
Sweet Ora was backed as if unbeatable when debuting here a couple of weeks back, but unfortunately for her supporters, she bombed the start and that was the end of her chances. Market support was strong, so I am respecting that and with a better getaway, she should take some beating.
Big Danger: Our Time Will (Best Odds: $2.70) Come jumped brilliantly in that race mentioned above and courtesy of that, the daughter of Oratorio proved far too good for her rivals. Draws to get every chance and will be around the mark.
Roughie: Double Light (Best Odds: $3.80) looks the pick of the first starters. The daughter of Artie Schiller, trained by Simon Miller, has looked sharp in a couple of barrier trials, the latest on October 19 at Lark Hill. Draws wide but looks a ready made two year old.
Race Two (16:18) : Mt Hallowell Stud Plate 1000m:
Back Me: Petite Charm (Best Odds: $15.00) was a well supported favourite last time out at Bunbury and she was given every chance by Pike. Looked the winner but was nabbed right on the peg. Looks above average and she can certainly measure up here.
Big Danger: Three Votes (Best Odds: $1.70) is a smart type for Chris Gangemi who has won both starts this prep in dominant fashion. Hardest test to date here, but he looks well above average. Just worried he will start too short.
Roughie: Pushin’ Shapes (Best Odds: $8.00) is on the back up from last Saturday where he sat wide no cover yet ran quite well and hit the line with purpose when fourth to potential Stakes winner Universal Law. Should get every chance from gate one and is a definite threat.
Race Three (17:03) : Hosemasters/Alfagomma Handicap (72+) 2100m:
Back Me: Military Service (Best Odds: $7.00) has been up for a long time, but he is just racing so well at the moment. He ran here last Saturday and tried his heart out when running fourth to Success Story, beaten under a length. His record at the track is horrendous but this is a thin race.
Big Danger: Who’s To Blame (Best Odds: 3.00) ran a cracker to get the job done two back before racing in that Success Story race last weekend where he ran a close second to that horse after getting a sweet trip just off the speed. Drops in weight also, so he looms as one of the hardest to beat.
Roughie: Steel Spur (Best Odds: $6.00) steps up in trip immediately after running over the mile last weekend where he worked home strongly late to run fourth to Special Delivery. Third up, so he has more upside and is a winner up to 2200m.
Race Four (17:45) : Seacorp Handicap (72+) 1000m:
Back Me: Silverstream (Best Odds: $2.40) looks the way to go here. This talented mare has won both starts this time in, the latest coming a fortnight back over 1200m here when sitting on speed and proving too classy. She is versatile, so she can take a sit if required. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Lucky Street (Best Odds: $6.00) started a short priced elect when resuming here two weeks ago, but he bombed the start and that was the end of his winning chances. He was the dominant juvenile in Perth last season, and the trials leading in was fantastic. Give him another chance.
Roughie: Dueton ran (Best Odds: $14.00) a beauty in that race Lucky Street bombed the start in. He surged late to run a game second to all the way winner and Stakes winner Liberty’s Gem. Well weighted after the claim and he will be strong late.
Race Five (18:20) : Burgess Queen Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Perfect Reflection (Best Odds: $2.30) looks the way to go. This star filly is unbeaten in three outings, the latest coming in the Belgravia where she just savaged the line for quite a dominant win. Can’t see anything from the Belgravia turning the tables here.
Big Danger: Blackwood (Best Odds: $3.40) resumed in the Belgravia and she was pretty solid in defeat. She got a long way back in the run and peeled the widest yet worked to the line pretty well late in the piece. She has upside and gets a 2kg weight pull on Perfect Redemption. I just think that filly is a star.
Roughie: Total Eclipse (Best Odds: $41.00) won’t be beating the stablemate Perfect Redemption, but there was plenty to like about her maiden win at Northam last time out where she got back and just powered home. Talented, won’t be winning, but should get a place I think.
Race Six (18:57) : Seacorp Starlight- Asian Beau Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Real Love (Best Odds: $2.60) is a star mare that resumes for Adam Durrant. The Perth Cup winner had two runs during the Melbourne Autumn, both in hot races. Looked outstanding in a recent trial win, and the signs are there she is ready to run a beauty fresh.
Big Danger: This is D-Day for Hazzabeel (Best Odds: $4.40). He has the potential to be a contender in the Railway and Kingston Town, but he needs to stand up, and here. Had the run of the race in the Northerly but didn’t finish off as expected. Lucy Warwick going back on could be the difference.
Roughie: Balmont Girl (Best Odds: $9.00) was one of the best runs of the beaten brigade in the Northerly where she got a mile back in the run before running on hard late to run a close up fourth to Black Heart Bart. She is a second up winner, draws well and has a fabulous record at the track.
Race Seven (19:37) : Birds Of Tokyo On Super Saturday Handicap (60+) 1200m:
Back Me: Regal Commander (Best Odds: $1.85) had the charmed run last time out over this track/distance two weeks back but he couldn’t quite reel in talented stablemate Silverstream. Pike back on now and despite the wide gate, he looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Happy With Kendel (Best Odds: $5.50) is a nippy customer who ran his rivals ragged in that race mentioned above. Can’t knock winning form, and despite rising in grade, he is a contender for sure in a tricky race outside the top tip.
Roughie: Crown Choice (Best Odds: $10.00) ran over this track/distance last Wednesday and was four wide midfield for the entire trip yet peeled out and lengthened strongly to run an encouraging third to Happy With Kendel. Does get a 1.5kg weight swing on that horse now and draws much better.
Race Eight (20:15) : Hosemasters Handicap (60+) 1500m:
Back Me: Key To Fame (Best Odds: $3.80) takes on the older horses after a strong effort last time out against the three year olds when a close up second to the above average type London Line, beaten in a three way photo finish. He will get over from the wide gate and he will take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Saker (Best Odds: $3.00) has recently just come out of Maiden grade but he has shown in previous runs he is a city class horse. He ran over 1420m last Wednesday and flew home late when a close up second to Liberty Rise. Should get a sweet trip from the inside gate and will prove hard to beat.
Roughie: Carney (Best Odds: $19.00) worked home very strongly last start, bursting through between runners to run a close up third to Ocean Cracker. Only third up here, so there is more upside, and he is a must for exotics.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Perfect Redemption
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 4 Real Love
VALUE: Race Four Number 1 Dueton
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6
Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 7, 8
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8, 11, 12
$50 Investment= 35.71% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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