The Spring Carnival in Sydney reaches its climax this Saturday with a star studded program set down for Randwick, with the feature race being the time honoured $1 Million Star 150th Epsom (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:15) : Newgate Breeders’ Plate 1000m:
Back Me: Cohesion (Best Odds: $4.60), based on the trials, should smash this field. He was outstanding in winning his barrier trial, sitting on speed all the way and winning by a space under no pressure from McDonald. If he runs up to the trial, he wins.
Big Danger: Capitalist (Best Odds: $1.70) is a Team Snowden runner who also won his barrier trial here, winning quite impressively, and he did run 0.3 seconds quicker than Cohesion, but was placed under more pressure. Nonetheless, he looks well educated and should run well.
Roughie: Walk Right (Best Odds: $12.00) in is a Paul Perry trained son of Hinchinbrook who ran a strong second to Capitalist in that trial mentioned above, and he looked pretty good in the way he went about his business. Paul Perry always has a runner or two in these early two year old races, and they usually perform well.
Race Two (12:55) : Keeneland Gimcrack Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Godolphin should sweep the two year old races here, and I think the best of the entire bunch racing today is Calliope (Best Odds: $2.10). She was brilliant in her trial win, leading all the way and winning by a space. Time was one of the quickest of the morning and she did it under a hold. With normal luck, she should beat these.
Big Danger: Desirable (Best Odds: $15.00) Miss is a Bjorn Baker filly who showed good toe to win her trial, leading all the way and winning under minimal pressure. The stable knows what to do with their youngsters, and based on her trial, she will be on speed and in the race for a long way.
Roughie: Rather Sweet (Best Odds: $26.00) is a Gary Nickson trained daughter of Mutawaajid who showed good speed to win her trial, leading all the way to score a 1.5L victory. Should do no work from gate one and is a definite place chance.
Race Three (13:30) : TAB Dulcify Quality 1600m:
Back Me: Going with More Than Fabulous (Best Odds: $7.50). I have been following him all prep, and he finally got the job in impressive fashion over this distance at Newcastle. Month between runs, but he did look very good in a Rosehill barrier trial on Tuesday morning. Mile is perfect, draws well and Boss is on. Ticks plenty of boxes here.
Big Danger: I think if you backed Wudang Mountain (Best Odds: $3.40) in the Spring Stakes, you have to forgive him for his failure given he chased tearaway leader Clash Of Clans all the way and by the time he beat that horse off, he was swamped late. I think with a more quiet steer here from the wide, he can finish his race off better and get the job done.
Roughie: Laucala (Best Odds: $3.80) took on the older mares last time out at Rosehill and she was pretty good late when running a close up seventh to impressive winner Something Secret. Was due to run at Rosehill on Wednesday but the stable have elected to target the harder race, a sign of confidence in the filly and her ability perhaps.
Race Four (14:10) : Canterbury BMW Roman Consul Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: You’d be a brave man to tip against Golden Rose winner Exopshere (Best Odds: $1.55). He was just awesome in winning that Group l, aided by an absolute peach from McDonald. He is a star sprinter in the making, and all things being equal, he should take care of this lot, and the Golden Rose/Roman Consul path has been very good to horses in recent years.
Big Danger: Big watch on Japonisme (Best Odds: $6.00), who has been freshened up after failing as a short priced elect in the Run To The Rose when fourth to Exosphere. Freshened up, and he looked very sharp in a recent barrier trial behind Holler, and the freshen leading up to the Roman Consul is a successful formula used by Chris Waller.
Roughie: Takedown (Best Odds: $19.00) was excellent when resuming in the Heritage, working to the line very strongly to run third to Counterattack. He copped a bad check halfway down the straight and lost all momentum, but he picked himself up and was strong through the line. He meets Counterattack much better at the weights, so Takedown is the horse to follow from that form reference, and he will be strong at the end of 1200m now that he has got the run under the belt.
Race Five (14:45) : G1X.com.au Premiere Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: I can’t say I am a huge fan of the horse, but on weights alone, Terravista (Best Odds: $2.10) should really just about take care of these. He resumes for Joe Pride after a very disappointing Autumn campaign, which ended with a second last of 13 in the All Aged. His first trial was just so so, but he looked much better in the second and latest trial. Class and the compressed weights will ensure he will go very close to winning.
Big Danger: Rebel Dane (Best Odds: $4.60) was fantastic when resuming off a long spell and getting the job done in the Shorts, sprouting wings from off the speed and lunging best to get the job done in a thrilling finish. He should take enormous benefit from that run and he will be suited by the rise to 1200m.
Roughie: Famous Seamus (Best Odds: $16.00) was a real eye catcher when he resumed in the Theo Marks Stakes, working home strongly from the back to finish a close up fifth to Winx. Outside the winner, I have a question mark on the strength of that form, but this horse does fly second up, and he was outstanding in winning this race last year.
Race Six (15:20) : APN Outdoor Craven Plate 2000m:
Back Me: Looks a lovely race for Complacent (Best Odds: $2.00). He stunned most when he led all the way to win the Chelmsford two back, and he proved that was no fluke with a very game third in the Hill Stakes after having a very tough run throughout. That should bring him right on now, McDonald on, draws well, WFA…just looks the winner.
Big Danger: This race will determine whether or not Ruling Dynasty (Best Odds: $7.50) is a 2015 Melbourne Cup contender. He produced one of the wins of the Carnival over the mile a couple of weeks back. He got badly checked halfway down the straight and lost momentum, but he picked up, dived back to the inferior ground and savaged the line for a most impressive win. Not suited at WFA, and this is a massive rise in grade, but James Cummings will find out just how good this horse is and whether or not he is ready now.
Roughie: I’m Imposing (Best Odds: $12.00) probably raced a touch flat last week in the Shannon, and while the run wasn’t as good as his Chelmsford effort, he was pretty good late in the piece and through the line. He will love the rise to 2000m and is a definite winning chance.
Race Seven (15:20) : The Star 150th Epsom 1600m:
Back Me: I’m going to stick solid with Rudy (Best Odds: $11.00). He has been excellent in three runs back from a break. He really caught the eye in the Tramway when third to Hooked before going to the Bill Ritchie and running Sadler’s Lake to a half length after spotting that horse a decent margin early on in the straight. His two runs at the track/distance have resulted in a Villiers win and a fourth in the Doncaster, the third best and best mile race in Sydney respectively, so that reads very well for a race like this and that Doncaster 4th did come fourth up last time in.
Big Danger: Winx (Best Odds: $2.80) is the clear favourite for the race and rightfully so after her unbelievable win in the Theo Marks, where she savaged the line from last in the straight to win in the last stride. While that win was amazing, the form is a little questionable, with just the one win coming from the beaten brigade in six subsequent runs. The weights are also a worry. Yes they are compressed, but that is still a lot of weight for a four year old mare against the tough and seasoned male runners. Nonetheless, her brilliance alone could be enough to win.
Roughie: The knockout runner at odds is Kirramosa (Best Odds: $16.00). Her last two efforts have been quite encouraging, both resulting in fifths behind Hooked in the Tramway and then behind Kermadec in the George Main. Suited here, and if the track does dry out, she comes right into calculations IMO.
Race Eight (16:40) : Coolmore Flight Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: Really surprised that $8.00 is on offer for Honesta (Best Odds: $9.00). She is the clear horse to follow from the main lead up, the Tea Rose when a closing second to Pearls. That was her first run in four months. Plenty of improvement left in her, she is proven at the distance and she will be very strong late compared to most of these.
Big Danger: Normally the best filly wins this race, and clearly the best filly here is Speak Fondly (Best Odds: $2.40), who was gallant in defeat when second to star colt Exopshere. Before that she smashed her rivals in the two other lead ups to this race, the Silver Shadow and Furious. Little query on her running the mile but normally brilliance overcomes that worry.
Roughie: Kiwi filly Sofia Rosa (Best Odds: $26.00) was excellent in defeat when making her Australian debut in the Tea Rose, sticking near the inside, which was like quicksand, and was far from disgraced. Enormous upside with her, and you always have to respect the kiwis when they come over.
Race Nine (17:20) : McGrath Estate Agents Metropolitan 2400m:
Back Me: Junoob (Best Odds: $11.00) lost the race last year after a positive swab. Provided everything legally is okay, I think he can regain his title in 2015. I loved his first up run in the Chelmsford behind Complacent before a poor effort in the Hill Stakes, but he generally does run poor second up. Hoping that the track dries out, because he is very lethal on firm ground, as we saw when he was first past the post in this race last year.
Big Danger: Beyond Thankful (Best Odds: $11.00) has been up for a long time, but he is just racing so well at the moment and he continues to be underrated. He was sent out an $8 chance in the Newcastle Cup (2300m) last start yet just powered home and finished off the race best. He gives the impression he will handle 2400m, and while he is in this vein of form, why not have a crack at a Group l.
Roughie: Opinion (Best Odds: $26.00) was elevated to winner of this race last year ahead of stablemate Junoob. He hasn’t been too bad I think in two runs back from a spell. He has been good through the line in both the Chelmsford and Hill Stakes, in particular the latter. He handles all conditions, and he has a great record at 2400m, and getting back to a handicap is perfect.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Complacent
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 4 Honesta
VALUE: Race Nine Number 3 Opinion
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 6, 9
Leg Three: 1, 4
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13
$50 Investment= 50% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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