A strong card of racing will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday, where it is Birthday Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One: Westspeed Initial Plate 1000m:
Back Me: Really hard to sort out these youngsters. Most of the trials have been over 400m so it’s a real unknown. I think I’ll sit this one…but if there was a horse to back…maybe Storm Power (Best Odds: $3.80).
Big Danger: Not enough exposed form to pick.
Roughie: Not enough exposed form to pick.
Race Two: Crown Perth Opening Day October 17 Handicap (72) 2200m:
Back Me: Betting agencies are offering $51 for Kia Ora Koutou (Best Odds: $1.50) to win the Victorian Derby…I would suggest have something on him and then watch him win here. He is just an out and out stayer who just winds up in the run like a real up and comer. Should be beating these.
Big Danger: Verdello Blue (Best Odds: $6.50) is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday where he whacked away for a close up sixth. The big key is getting Pike on again, and he looks the leader.
Roughie: Military Service (Best Odds: $10.00) ran in that race Verdello Blue contested last weekend, and just forget he went around there given he was three wide no cover for the entire trip. Draws better and is on the minimum.
Race Three: Irish Day at Belmont Park October 10 Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: Battle Hero (Best Odds: $2.10) for me here. He was awesome in winning first up here over 1200m, aided by a typical peach from Pike. Pike sticks with the galloped and given he has so much upside, he looks the clear way to go.
Roughie: The step up in distance will really suit Tonto (Best Odds: $4.40), who charged home from near last to run a close fourth to My Sister Lil. Small field is ideal and if the speed is on, he will be finishing the race off better than anyone.
Big Danger: Military Ruler (Best Odds: $5.50) is racing in very consistent fashion. He ran second to The Alleged over 1650m, getting outbobbed on the peg. Back in trip suits and he will be in it for a long way.
Race Four: Myer Fashion On The Field October 17 Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between the top two. With the race fitness on her side, I’ll lean with Hot Goods (Best Odds: $1.70), who is a very sharp youngster who is unbeaten in four runs. Drawn wide, but he has blistering early toe and will be in it for a long way.
Big Danger: Man Booker (Best Odds: $4.20) resumes here for Dan Morton after three runs during the Autumn. No trials, but he is well above average and should make his presence felt here.
Roughie: Mystic Maid (Best Odds: $7.00) resumed a couple of weeks back and worked home well late when third to the above average Bombs Away. She is a Karrakatta placegetter, so she has the form and class to be quite competitive here.
Race Five: Go Eagles Go! Handicap (60+) 2200m:
Back Me: Caralabek (Best Odds: $3.40) ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks and he worked home very strongly late from the back when running a close up third to Street Bandit. If he can somehow can get closer, he should go close to beating these.
Big Danger: Street Bandit (Best Odds: $5.50) was given a beaut steer from Lucy Warwick to get the job done in the race mentioned above, winning narrowly but impressively. Rises in weight but draws well and gun apprentice Jake Casey takes over.
Roughie: Abebe (Best Odds: $10.00) smashed them in winning his maiden at Northam before running over this track/distance and running strongly late when fourth to Military Service. Down in the weights here and looks a definite winning chance.
Race Six: Birthday Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Super race. With the fitness edge, I’ll lean towards Wink And A Nod, (Best Odds: $2.60), who has strung together four wins on the bounce, all of which have been classy. Hardest test to date here, but again draws well and should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Black Heart Bart (Best Odds: $2.80) is the class runner engaged here. He hasn’t raced since finishing last in the Strabdroke, but he was wide with no cover for the entire trip. Recent Lark Hill trial was very good and he can sprint well fresh.
Roughie: Hazzabeel (Best Odds: $6.00) is the up and comer who resumes for Simon Miller. He was outstanding last prep and though his grand final will be the Railway, he looks classy enough to beat these, especially down on the minimum.
Race Seven: Amelia Park Handicap (60+) 1200m:
Back Me: Just go one out here courtesy of Mississippian (Best Odds: $3.00), who has been outstanding in both runs this time, including a dominant win over this track/distance when savaging the line from last. Pike will hook the horse back again, and all things being equal, he should be winning.
Big Danger: Bayella (Best Odds: $15.00) is a very tough mare who is in such excellent fashion, including last start when a close up third to former Victorian mare Mezulla, beaten just under a length. Has to carry a fair bit of weight, and takes on the boys, but she is tough and just never gives up the fight.
Roughie: Terror Force (Best Odds: $21.00) ran fifth behind the top tip when resuming, and I thought he was quite good. Didn’t finish as well as the winner from the back, but he did make up ground. Fitter now and should improve.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 6 Mississippian
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Wink And A Nod
VALUE: Race Two Number 6 Military Service
Quaddie Tips (Races Four Through To Seven):
Leg One: 1, 2
Leg Two: 1, 4
Leg Three: 1, 5, 9
Leg Four: 6
$50 Investment= 416.66% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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