31/8/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Idyllic Prince Stakes day

The Idyllic Prince Stakes (1300m) is the feature race at Belmont this Saturday and the Listed event highlights a nine race card. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Up to 1400m should suit 9 Jovella (Bet Now: $3.70). This mare resumed in a 1200m maiden here two weeks ago where she just lacked the change up speed over the shorter trip but stuck on well enough in defeat when fifth to Sherpa Lass. Was only a few lengths off them in the Natasha during the Autumn Carnival so she has the ability. May need one more but can’t entirely ignore.

1 Indian Chant (Bet Now: $3.00) is on the seven day back up after racing in a 1200m maiden here last Saturday when wide no cover for the trip and sticking to the task okay late when fourth to surprise winner Nickodema. Tricky draw again, but gets a big tick with Pike taking the ride and I think up to 1400m will be ideal. Short enough in the market, but hard to beat.

2 Xaarmerit (Bet Now: $9.50) is the very interesting runner. He ran over 2000m last Thursday at Pinjarra when on speed, doing work out wide, and stuck on really well in defeat when third to Bloom Away. Back to 1400m within nine days will be a great training effort to get him to win. I think his best chance will be if he leads and rolls, making it a proper 1400m contest.

Going with 9 Amelia’s Contraire (Bet Now: $8.50) to make it 2/2 this time in. She was a short priced elect when resuming in a 1200m maiden here at the midweeks and she was outstanding in leading throughout, winning by a space and doing it without really being fully extended by Parnham. 1300m and the rise in depth is a different pain barrier, but she looks to have quality.

1 Apache Pass (Bet Now: $21.00) can bounce back. Got up in the last stride to win over 1400m here two back before stepping back to 1200m a fortnight ago where he just didn’t have the turn of foot to win but was sound late when fourth to Rocky Path. I think 1600m+ is when he’ll come into his own, which is a concern here, but if they go hard in front, he’ll be strong late.

2 Rocky Path (Bet Now: $8.50) has shown good ability since day one for Vaughn Sigley without winning but that all changed two weeks ago over 1200m here when sitting off a good speed before Carbery angled his way through the ruck, the splits came her way and she attacked the line strongly to get the job done. Back up in trip, she can certainly repeat the dose.

I think 5 Excise Free (Bet Now: $3.90) is the best horse in the race. Just depends if she’s ready to go first up on what is likely going to be a testing track. Michael Lane trains this mare, who has showed good ability in her career to date, but I will say at times she can be hot and cold. Two trials leading into her resumption have been good and stable is having a good run in town in recent times.

9 Bel My Pago (Bet Now: $3.70) is a daughter of Bel Esprit who was completely unwanted in betting when resuming over 1000m here a few weeks ago but she defied the market drift and produced a brilliant finale from off the pace to win impressively. You’d like to assume she’ll take really good improvement from that outing and though may want 1200m, hard to ignore what she did fresh.

Really interesting runner is 2 Kennedy (Bet Now: $7.50), who resumes for Chris Gangemi. This guy is a former Godolphin galloper who had one run in WA last season, which saw him make up ground late behind Hoboken in a race where the form has been really good. Can sprint well fresh, doesn’t mind a track with give in it and first up with these former Eastern state runners, always have to watch the market with this stable.

In the corner of 6 Stageman (Bet Now: $1.80). This Adam Durrant trained sprinter hasn’t raced since July 13 over 1200m here when given a 12/10 steer from Pike, finishing best in a tight go to nab the in form Free Trade near the peg. He loves a track with give in it, which is what he gets here, he has residual fitness and he’ll be one of the strongest at the end of this 1000m.

5 Floyd (Bet Now: $4.60) is bursting to win a race. Had two months off prior to racing at this track/distance two weeks ago when given a lovely ride just off the speed before getting clear air, sprinting well, hitting the front and looking home, but was nabbed late Essential Spice, who is flying at the moment. Bit of depth to this sprint field, but he’s going well and is knocking on the door.

2 Saracino (Bet Now: $6.00) is slowly starting to find some positive form since his 3YO days when he was a Danehill winner for Murray Baker. He ran in the Essential Spice race mentioned above when on speed and fighting hard, but just couldn’t quite sustain it, but it was good to see him fight when headed and not turn it up. Knockout chance if he leads and gets a cheap furlong.

This looks rather straight forward I think with 1 Gatting (Bet Now: $2.00). He’s a good thing IMO. Classy animal that resumes, having not raced since the Swan River Vase where he was a shock loser behind Come Play With Me, but the Blinkers were off and I think the stable realise that he needs them on, which they are here, and he went like an absolute jet in a recent Pinjarra trial. Really keen on him.

5 Great Again (Bet Now: $2.30) is a very consistent animal for Lindsey Smith that has the recent runs on the board, having won the Belmont Newmarket two weeks ago, but he did get an absolute picnic in front (First 600m in 38), so he was entitled to kick on and win, which he did. Bit more depth this time around but handles all conditions and should improve off that run.

Great to see 4 Variation (Bet Now: $9.00) back at the races. This guy hasn’t raced since the Old Comrade during the Autumn Carnival when on speed and tiring late when third to impressive winner Mizlecki. Has trialled well twice in readiness for his return and we know that at his best, he’s one of the better gallopers WA has to offer at around this distance range.

Going the way of 1 Wanna Be Good (Bet Now: $6.50) for Lindsey Smith. He has the awful racing pattern of flopping out the back and flashing late, which is what he’s done in both runs this time in, but he does have a booming finish on him and the likely wet track as well as drawing wide to get clear air, plus the claim for Chris Graham, ensures he’s one of the hardest to beat.

3 Three Secrets (Bet Now: $4.80) has returned in good order for Steve Wolfe, both runs coming here at this trip. First up just got the better of the handy galloper Sir Mambo before racing in a similar race here two weeks ago when on speed and trying hard but finding Why Choose Her too good on the day. Is a third up winner in the past and he should be hard fit now.

10 On The Turps (Bet Now: $11.00) comes through the Why Choose Her race mentioned above from a fortnight back. He was coming back in trip after racing over 1400m the start prior when pulling hard in the run. He appreciated the fast tempo of the six furlongs and found the line nicely late. If he can get a decent drag up into the race, I think he can be dangerous at odds.

Brodie Kirby is a talented rider but I think his steer on 7 Black Russian (Bet Now: $11.00) here on August 14 is one he’d like to forget. Just caught napping out the back while those around were making moves, he was left out the back with an impossible task, and I think with a half decent steer wins the race. Gets in very well after the claim for Chris Graham and for mine is the one on the up.

2 Zaratite (Bet Now: $2.40) has been excellent this time in for the Williams camp. He has been up a little while though and he can’t stay up forever, so that’s the little query leading into this race, but all you can do is win and that’s what he has done at his past three, the latest coming two weeks ago when far too good for his rivals under a lovely ride from Pike. Hard to beat.

6 Not Again Ken (Bet Now: $31.00) seemed to lap up the rise in trip when winning impressively at this track/distance on August 14, sitting off the speed before being asked to go on the turn, making a sustained run, and though entitled to get the staggers late, he was far too good for his rivals. He was 1600-2200m that day so you’d like to think there is improvement left.

Adam Durrant has 6 Kelly’s Secret (Bet Now: $3.80) flying. He was around three weeks between runs when racing over the mile here last Wednesday where he had a suck run off the pace before Pike angled him into clear air in the straight and under hard riding, the five year old finished best to continue his really good prep. If the forecast for rain is right, he looks clearly the one to beat.

11 Blue Horse (Bet Now: $6.00) is knocking on the door to win another race. Was hooked back from the wide gate over this track/distance two weeks ago but finished off with real purpose late to run second to surprise winner Futurist. Has started decent odds at her past few but continues to race really well and see no reason to suggest why she can’t keep running well.

1 Sonnen (Bet Now: $9.00) is four weeks between runs since racing over this track/distance where he sat off what looked a good speed, which ensured he was off the bit on the turn and hard at it, but he kept chipping away and was really good in defeat when third to Black Shadow. Fitter and does have a bit of class on these. Just depends if the mile is too short and he wants further.

11 Spillinova (Bet Now: $4.80) can easily win this. Market said he’d need the run first up over 1200m here three weeks back and the negative tactics from the gate made sure he was next to no chance of winning, yet still go close to beating Little Fish in an excellent return. 2/3 second up and I suspect they’ll come out humming and look to dominate proceedings on speed.

3 Tamasa (Bet Now: $4.50) can bounce back into the winners list. Just forget he went around in the Belmont Newmarket first up. He was back in the run in a race where the leader/winner Great Again went 38 seconds for the first 600m, which is an absolutely crawling speed. Would have had to run sub 34 to win and on a testing track, no chance. Have to give him another chance.

For wider multiples, I’d be including 2 Red Publisher (Bet Now:$31.00). He resumes over 1400m here a fortnight ago where he sat well off the pace in the run and was never really a winning threat, but did make up ground late behind Free Trade and his late splits weren’t too bad. Better suited over a mile, but 1400m on a wet track should mean it’ll feel like a mile, so he’s one for trifecta/first four.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Gatting

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 11 Spillinova

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 1 Wanna Be Good

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 7, 12

Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 12

Leg Three: 6

Leg Four: 11

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