The Golden Slipper Carnival concludes this Saturday at Rosehill with a Group l double header, highlighted by the Kia Tancred Stakes (2400m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:30) The Schweppervescence 1400m
I really like this colt 7 Ringerdingding (Bet Now: $20.00) for Edward O’Rourke. I reckon he has a really good engine under the bonnet. Won impressively on debut before going to the Pago Pago where he got a mile back off them but produced some good late splits in defeat behind Written By. 1400m looks no issue and he has the right form.
12 Aristocratic Miss (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Tony McEvoy trained filly who is still a maiden but is blessed with any amount of talent. She ran a beauty in the Blue Diamond behind Written By before going to the Sires where she did a great job against the bias behind Not A Single Cent. Has the 1400m run under the belt and in the right stable.
15 Onthetake (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Clare Cunningham trained daughter of Krupt who was ridden upside down when heavily backed two starts ago at Wyong before going to Newcastle where she was ridden cold and she bounced back hard with a superb win, albeit only just getting there. Very likeable filly who I think should measure up.
Race 2. (13:10) Neville Sellwood Stakes 2000m
2 Mackintosh (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t won for a while but gee I think he gets a great chance to break into the winners list. Closed off really well from the back last time out in the Sky High at this track/distance when third to Auvray. Hopefully he can sit closer in the run and if that eventuates, he’s the one to beat.
1 One Foot In Heaven (Bet Now: $3.70) is a very interesting runner. High class animal that makes his Australian debut for the Chris Waller team. He brings some world class form from France with him, including a midfield effort in the Arc behind Enable, one of the best in the world. On that alone, he has to be included, though the trials could have been better.
11 Harlow Gold (Bet Now: $9.50) is the interesting runner. Really good resumption in the Tressady at Flemington when fourth to Flippant and the form out of that reads well with Oregon’s Day going close to winning the Coolmore. Was down to run in the Epona last Saturday but Lane wasn’t on and the horse was declared a non starter. Happy to include her.
Race 3. (13:45) Star Kingdom Stakes 1200m
2 Fell Swoop (Bet Now: $9.50) is the knockout horse. Matty Dale didn’t appear to have the horse wound up to win first up in the Bob Hoysted and he ran accordingly, just running out of condition late behind Secret Agenda. Was nominated for the William Reid but they dodged that and instead run here. If he runs to his best, he’ll go very close.
4 Burning Passion (Bet Now: $7.00) was a drifter in betting when resuming in the Liverpool Cup but I thought he ran a ripping race in defeat behind Crack Me Up, who ran a beauty in the George Ryder last week behind Winx so that form reads very well, and he has trialled up nicely subsequent. Definite chance.
5 Oxford Poet (Bet Now: $14.00) is a beauty for the Kim Waugh stable, and really, anything the stable saddles up at the moment has to be included. Ran in the feature sprint on Kembla Grange Classic Day and did a great job to win given he lumped 59kg and sat outside the speed to eventually wear down the tough nut Stonebrook. Maps ideally and gets really good weight relief.
Race 4. (14:20) Emancipation Stakes 1500m
Have to side with 3 Dixie Blossoms (Bet Now: $3.90). The more I watch the replay, the more I could make a strong case that she should have won. Just had no luck at all when she needed to get clear because she is a mare who can’t sit/sprint. She needs to build momentum and she wasn’t allowed to do that behind Daysee. If the breaks go her way, Dixie should turn the tables.
Despite Dixie being unlucky, full credit to 1 Daysee Doom (Bet Now: $3.90). She was on speed and did all the work in the run, and she was there to be beaten but she found plenty in the straight to dig in and get that well deserved major. How much did that gut buster take out of her? Time will tell, but you can’t ignore her.
Expecting a much better run from 2 Foxplay (Bet Now: $7.50). Excellent resumption in the Millie Fox prior to racing in the Canterbury Stakes where she got back and never got involved at all behind Happy Clapper, who of course ran a blinder in the George Ryder. Back to mares grade and up to 1500m, no excuses for mine.
Race 5. (14:55) Tulloch Stakes 2000m
7 Primitivo (Bet Now: $8.00) looks a great each way play for mine. Sebring gelding for the John Thompson team who is still a maiden but is blessed with talent. He comes through the Canberra Guineas where he worked home very strongly but was no match for the Group l performed Assimilate. He’s racing as if the 2000m will suit and has upside and happy to have something on at double figures.
6 Mongolian Marshal (Bet Now: $3.30) is the big query. Baker/Forsman trained three year old who looks to have real upside and progression about him and the fact he comes here with no real decent form tells me the stable must have an opinion of him, a good one. Won really impressively last time out at Ellerslie and overall, the form isn’t great out of it, but one horse, The Rebel Knight, won like Phar Lap last week at Avondale.
5 Weather With You (Bet Now: $20.00) is another unknown. Stablemate of Mongolian Marshal who has plenty of talent and does have some runs on the board but can do plenty wrong. The market said he’d need the run last time out at Warwick Farm and ran accordingly behind Augustus. Up to 2000m on a big track might be what he is looking for.
Race 6. (15:30) Tancred Stakes 2400m
Hard to get away from 2 Almandin (Bet Now: $4.00 BOOSTED ODDS). The stable very rarely get beat when they bring their horses to Sydney and he’s right up there with the best they have got. Australian Cup run was enormous. Should he have won? On face value, yes, but bear in mind he was aided by the bias. Just didn’t get the splits. That form held up in the Ranvet last Saturday and I think he will be much better suited at 2400m compared to others to come from that race.
1 Gailo Chop…(Bet Now: $2.70 BOOSTED ODDS) I was against him last week but he bolted up, albeit helped by a slow tempo in the Ranvet. The question is can he stretch his brilliance to 2400m and match it with Almandin. If he can, he’s a clear winning chance. He has won on the seven day back up before, he’s hard fit and in ripping form.
4 Harlem…(Bet Now: $26.00 BOOSTED ODDS) is the interesting one for me. Aided by the bias to win the Australian Cup, but the horse still managed to get the job done. As for last week in the Ranvet, I think just forgive and forget. Tempo was too slow and he wasn’t happy on the soft track. Much better suited on top of the ground and getting out to 2400m, an ideal trip.
Race 7. (16:10) Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m
I think the tactics of 1 Aloisia (Bet Now: $7.00 FAT ODDS) will play a big part as to who will win this race. I think if they go back, she can’t win. But as we saw in the Thousand Guineas in the Spring, she can hold a forward spot and still be explosive at the end, and you could say the same in the Vase on Cox Plate Day. Australian Guineas run was enormous and the form out of that has been patchy but there are positive signs. I think if the real Aloisia turns up, she wins.
9 Hiyaam (Bet Now: $18.00 FAT ODDS) could be the sleeper at odds. She had trialled up well prior to resuming in the Phar Lap where she did a power of work on speed and on the turn she looked as if she’d run last, but she picked up and somehow managed to stick on for third to Unforgotten. 2000m no issue for her, she’s in the right stable, has fresh legs…ticks plenty of boxes.
There are some good fillies here at crazy prices, one of them being 13 Miss Admiration (Bet Now: $67.00 FAT ODS). She has only won the one race from nine starts, but it did come last start and she absolutely bolted in under Michael Walker, winning with a fair bit of ease, beating a filly who had run well in the Tassie Oaks prior. Trip no issue and always respect the stable.
Race 8. (16:50) Doncaster Prelude 1500m
4 Interlocuter (Bet Now: $5.50) for me in a cracking edition of the Prelude. He had just the one trial prior to resuming in the Liverpool Cup where he was off the bit a fair way out and was wide but he kept coming and his late splits were very good until the final furlong where he just ran out of condition. Very good record second up and loves Rosehill, so I’m happy to be in his corner.
Hard to ignore 10 Cellarman (Bet Now: $4.40). He’s absolutely flying at the moment for Chris Waller. There were doubts about him at this level but they were quashed in the Ajax where he ran a ripping fourth to Comin’ Through and was unlucky not to finish closer. Draws to get a sweet run again and Avdulla sticks.
I don’t see much speed in the race so a horse like 2 Ecuador (Bet Now: $7.50) could well be a knockout chance here. He hasn’t raced since finishing down the track in the Lexus on Derby Day behind stablemate Cismontane. Really like what I have seen from him at the two trials and definitely looks wound up to run well fresh.
Race 9. (17:30) Sydney's West App Handicap (93) 1400m
8 Stonebrook (Bet Now: $6.00) for me in a very tough race. Waterhouse/Bott train this four year old, who resumed in the feature sprint on Kembla Grange Classic Day and to be fair, he probably had his chance in front and it only took a hard fit Oxford Poet to outgun him. Think he’ll lead again and take some running down.
5 Osborne Bulls (Bet Now: $3.10) was a fab winner first up at Randwick before going to the Kembla Grange race won by Oxford Poet. The tempo was clearly against him, so perhaps a forgive there when third. He’s the boom horse in the race and is being talked up as a blacktype performer. Has to stand up and be counted here.
2 My Nordic Hero (Bet Now: $23.00) is a definite yard/market watch. If he brought his Irish form, he’d be going awfully close to winning. Made his Australian debut back in September and wasn’t that far off Washington Heights in what looked a good race. Just the one soft trial leading in, but he certainly has the quality to figure in the finish.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Almandin
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 8 Stonebrook
VALUE: Race One Number 7 Ringerdingding
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2
Leg Two: 1, 8, 9, 12, 13
Leg Three: 2, 4, 8, 10
Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 13
$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful
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