30/9/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Mornington, Ansett Classic day

Mornington will host its traditional Grand Final Day meeting this Saturday where it is Ansett Classic Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (3) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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4 Beach Life (Bet Now: $3.50) looks the safe way to go here. Ciaron Maher trained galloper who looked in a bit of trouble as an odds on pop last time out at Geelong but Ethan Brown kept his cool, got the runs at the right time and the horse finished best for a confidence boosting win. He can go on with it here.

3 Koolama Bay (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Clinton McDonald trained galloper who was beautifully ridden on speed by Tom Stockdale last Saturday over the Tatura mile, leading at a reasonable tempo, holding a decent margin and maintaining that throughout for a gutsy all the way win. Looks the leader once again and will give a sight.

2 Gold Fields (Bet Now: $12.00) is a local trained by Logan McGill who has been given a near month off since racing at Bendigo over the mile where he sat on speed and kept finding under young Stockdale in the straight, only to get bloused late by a swooper in Groovin. Maps well here and is trained on the track.

4 Sin To Win (Bet Now: $2.45) is becoming a bit costly to punters but surely he puts this field away. ran over 1800m at Caulfield last Saturday where he was seemingly given every chance by Dunn but he couldn’t hold out the finishing burst of the above average Anaheim. 2000m, drop in depth, hard fit now…surely.

7 Ubin Thunderstruck (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Darren Weir trained stayer who has been given a little freshen up since winning over 2400m at Sandown on August 30 where Williams gave him a peach and he simply outstayed Crocodile Rock. This race will tell us what level he can get to, but he is promising and will be strong late.

8 Tuff Bickie (Bet Now: $6.50) does look the overs here. He is on the quick back up for the Kenny Keys stable after racing in the Anaheim race mentioned above last Saturday where he did a power of work throughout in the run, getting caught wide no cover for the trip, yet stuck on really well. He is the one with upside and suited up to the 2000m.

8 Ultra Smart (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Smart Missile filly for Pat Carey who debuted at Bendigo where she started pretty good odds, with punters thinking she’d need the run, but she was a real eye catcher I thought late in the piece behind Moet Rose in a maiden which looked very good on paper. On her home track now, only carries 51kg and has enormous upside.

2 Je Suis Tycoon (Bet Now: $2.80) is a talented filly that resumes for Henry Dwyer. This girl raced three times during the latter part of the Autumn, being luckless in her first two outings before going to the Gold Strike during the Bool Carnival where she gave them a spanking and was tipped out. Love seeing horses go out in winning form and her recent jump out was very good.

4 Tarcoola Spirit (Bet Now: $4.80) won with a bit of authority when resuming with a maiden triumph at Cranbourne before going to the Atlantic Jewel at the Valley where that race shape didn’t suit her at all and was a bit outclassed behind Shoals. Finds a much more winnable race here and rates highly for mine.

3 Divine Dice (Bet Now: $7.00) is a talented four year old first up for the Chris Meagher team. This gelding last raced in the Daybreak Lover at Doomben during the Winter Carnival and ran a beauty I thought without much luck behind All Over Bosanova. Recent Cranbourne trial was very good and the form has been franked.

5 Just Hifalutin (Bet Now: $2.35) is a smart mare that is first up for the Jusufovic stable. This girl last raced over 1400m at Flemington back in may where she got back to near last in the run but worked home with real purpose late. 1000m is probably short of her best, but her trial win was very sharp and she does have a bit of quality about her.

2 Bob Of The Head (Bet Now: $8.50) is a talented and gutsy campaigner resuming for John McArdle. This bloke hasn’t raced since mid may at Sale over 1100m where he came with a well timed run under Daniel Stackhouse to get the win. Has a really good first up record and looked good in a Cranbourne trial.

9 Toy Boy (Bet Now: $1.40) looks a really good bet here. Greg Eurell trained galloper who resumed over 1000m at Sandown and probably cost himself a win nearly by wanting to lay in badly in the straight when appearing to be full of running. Up to 1200m here, down in the weights, run under the belt…yes.

2 Ajani (Bet Now: $5.50) is a talented type for Team Snowden who ran over 1200m at Cranbourne last Wednesday and he did a great job to finish where he did after the amount of work he did on speed in what was a fast run affair. That was his first run in nearly a month so he should come on from that and rates highly.

1 Stormcraft (Bet Now: $10.00) is four weeks between runs for the Weir camp after racing over 1000m on the Parks track in Adelaide where he bombed the start by close to six lengths and did a really good job to finish and get as close as he did all things considered. Like that he is back up to 1200m and he will be strong late provided he jumps.

5 Settler’s Stone (Bet Now: $4.20) is on the quick back up for the Troy Blacker stable after racing in the Naturalism last Saturday where he got back near last in a leaders race and never really threatened, but he piked up very late and was solid enough to the line and through it. Doubt he wins here, but he did run well in the Mornington Cup and this race carries far less depth.

4 Charlevoix (Bet Now: $2.40) is a bludger but so are the rest of these so he’s a threat. Two luckless runs prior to going to the race mentioned above won by Almandin where he too was outclassed behind the Melbourne Cup winner. Draws to get a suck run behind, Bayliss takes over…gee if he was ever going to win another race, this is it.

Seriously, what do you put here? Anything really. Old mate 6 Crafty Cruiser (Bet Now: $19.00) can run a race here at odds. He has carried the grandstand at his past two and before then he was contesting some pretty good staying races. This is a very weak race, and on the limit, he can run in the multiples for sure.

If 1 Sea The Sparkle (Bet Now: $3.10) can’t win this race, she won’t win another. Darren Weir trained mare who has gone off the boil in recent times, but she has been up against much better opposition than this, including Hell Or Highwater and Samovare. Claim for Ben Allen helps and only bad luck will beat her.

2 Quilate (Bet Now: $5.00) trialled up okay prior to resuming here where she was a real catcher from the back, closing off with real purpose to run third to Smokin’ Bella. Despite not winning, she has a really good second up record and quickly up to the 1500m does look ideal. One of the hardest to beat.

9 Cedar Grande (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented staying mare that resumes for the Smerdon camp. This girl won well at Bendigo before going to the Fillies Classic at Morphettville where she got back and didn’t come on behind Ana Royale. Jump outs have been solid and 1500m fresh tells me she’s forward enough to run well.

7 It’s Time For Magic (Bet Now: $3.10) gets one more chance for me here. Chris Waller trained mare from NZ who has had a couple of runs for the stable in Australia, starting off with a narrow second to Motown Lil at Sandown before coming here where she looked to have the second up syndrome behind Smokin’ Bella. Tipping her to bounce back hard third up.

11 Street Impact (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Street Cry mare first up for the Smerdon team. The wraps were huge on her prior to debuting at Sandown in July hence why she started odds on, and while the win was narrow, it was very good and there were signs there that whatever she did, she would improve big time next prep. Trials/jump outs have been sharp and she looks ready to go.

5 She’s Positive (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Tony Noonan trained mare who had market support at odds when resuming at Bendigo and to an extent it was justified as she flashed home from last but not in time when fourth to Barood. Is a winner second up and is trained on the track, plus she draws to get good cover, a drag up and launch late.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 9 Toy Boy

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Sea The Sparkle

VALUE: Race Four Number 3 Divine Dice

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 9

Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6

Leg Three: 1, 2, 9

Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 8, 11

$50 Investment= 83.33% of the dividend if successful

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