The worlds best sprinter that is Chautauqua makes his return to the track this Friday night at the Valley in the Moir Stakes (1000m), and his return in a hot race highlights what should be a fabulous program. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (18:30) : MSC Signs Handicap (90) 1500m:
Back Me: 8 Plot The Course (Bet Now: $7.50) resumed at Caulfield a tick under two weeks back off the back of a sharp trial and gee he was an eye catcher late, warming to the task to run fifth to a potential Group l horse in He’s Our Rokkii. Second up at 1500m is perfect and with upside, he is one of the hardest to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Sadaqa (Bet Now: $9.00) ran over the mile here a month ago where he sat near the speed most of the way and fought on very well I thought when running second to Mihany, who backed that up with a strong effort at Caulfield last weekend. Saves his best for the Valley, he’ll be on speed and fighting hard all the way.
Roughie: 2 Sonntag (Bet Now: $41.00) has been a tease since winning the Quensland Derby a couple of years back, but I think he could produce something decent fresh based on how well he trialled recently behind Northern Jeuney. Best days are behind him, but he has been nommed/accepted/scratched a couple of times. He is a watch horse.
Race Two (19:00) : Quest Moonee Valley Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Blue Tycoon (Bet Now: $7.00) ran over 1100m at Caulfield last time out where he sat near the speed most of the way and was strong late when a close up third to the well above average Barthelona. I think he is better when he is ridden quiet and having the last say. I think if that eventuates here, he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: 2 Ken’s Dream (Bet Now: $3.00) is a talented three year old that is back for Darren Weir. He hasn’t raced since taking out the McKenzie Stakes (1200m) six weeks back where the form out of the race has stood up. Looked the part to my eye at Casterton and he has won at the track, which is a big tick.
Roughie: 11 Centauro (Bet Now: $67.00) is a tough customer for astute horseman Brett Cavanough who comes here off the back of a fast finishing second on Dubbo Cup Day behind Juju Man. Clearly that form is inferior to what he faces here, but he draws the pole, he can sit handy and the stable don’t bring them here for nothing. Perhaps one for exotics.
Race Three (19:30) : The Sporting Globe After The Last JRA Cup 2040m:
Back Me: Not sure many people missed the closing finish of 6 Observational (Bet Now: $3.80) in the Naturalism. He got a long way back in the run and was never really a winning hope, but he worked to the line with purpose late to run midfield. Fresh run here behind Mihany was full of merit and he has a stack of upside left.
Big Danger: 2 Magnapal (Bet Now: $9.00) was wide no cover throughout in the Naturalism and had every right to drop out and finish near last but he stuck to the task gamely and was actually attacking the line to run a very good fifth. Placed in this race last year but for mine looks to be going better 12 months on. Definite threat.
Roughie: Intrigued there is market support for 4 Taiyoo (Bet Now: $31.00). I thought his run in the Naturalism behind Jameka was just awful. He got back and just stayed there, and really didn’t find the line with any purpose. But he draws the inside gate and likes racing at the Valley. Perhaps an improver…perhaps.
Race Four (20:00) : Inglis 55 Second Challenge Heat 2 955m:
Back Me: I think there’s real value in the shape of 6 General Jackson (Bet Now: $10.00). He is somewhat of a track specialist that resumes for Pat Carey. His best days are probably behind him, but gee he looked sharp in a Cranbourne trial recently. Prepared to have something each way on him at a price.
Big Danger: 7 Estaminet (Bet Now: $3.20) does look the obvious as she is a potential blacktype mare. Can be hot and cold at times but she looks right on this prep after a couple of very impressive trial efforts. If she brings her best, she probably wins.
Roughie: 1 It Is Written (Bet Now: $11.00) is the best performed horse in the race by a mile and considering his record, he isn’t badly in at the weights. Trials leading in have been sharp and as always, they will fly here, so he’ll get his chance to ambush late. Looks a great price.
Race Five (20:30) : Strathmore Bendigo Bank Stutt Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: Intrigued to see how 5 Manhattan Street (Bet Now: $9.00) measures up. Quality colt from New Zealand and the very good Lisa Latta stable, and she knows when and who to bring over, rarely leaving without success. This colt comes off a last start second in the Wanganui Guineas where he ran a lip second to Highlad, who we will see this weekend. Moonee Valley is always a tricky track, especially for foreign horses, but he is very good from what I’ve seen.
Big Danger: 3 Hey Doc (Bet Now: $5.50) looked sharp at the jump outs prior to winning first up at Sandown before coming to the 1500m here where a brilliant ride from Dylann Dunn got the gelding home over Rocketeer, who was very good at his next start, so the form reads well and he is proven at the track which is a big tick.
Roughie: 2 Tessera (Bet Now: $7.00) was okay without setting the world on fire when resuming in the Run To The Rose (1200m) behind stablemate Astern before going to the 1400m at Flemington where he was much better, running a close up second to Detective. Gives the impression the mile will suit and though the stable have been poor in Melbourne recently, this looks a possible springboard.
Race Six (21:00) : Zoustar Stocks Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: Giving 2 Miss Rose De Lago (Bet Now: $4.80) another look here. Super winner of the P.B. Lawrence first up before coming here to the Dato Tan where she was wide no cover throughout then got badly checked and was pretty much eased down on the line. Bolted up the last time she was at this track/distance and though facing harder opposition, I think she can definitely bounce back.
Big Danger: 7 Kaniana (Bet Now: $21.00) ran over this track/distance a month back and closed off very nicely late in the piece to run fourth to Dulverton. She and the runner up both ran last Friday night and were game in defeat behind a stablemate of Kaniana, Star Circle, who probably isn’t in the same league as Kaniana. Another that’s poorly weighted, but Weir has a great record in these kind of scenarios eg Felicienne in the Autumn.
Roughie: 6 Clemency (Bet Now: $13.00) was a strong winner at this track/distance before being given a let up. Trialled well prior to running at Caulfield where she had market support and worked home with real purpose to finish not far away from Group l performer Alaskan Rose. Like most, she’s poorly weighted, but she has winning form at the track and upside.
Race Seven (21:30) : Charter Keck Cramer Moir Stakes 1000m:
Back Me: 1000m is short of his best, but how do they beat 2 Chautauqua? (Bet Now: $2.15) Stable have always said that 2016 is his year, and the first half of that was just simply stunning, highlight by his incredible win in the Chairmans Sprint at Sha Tin. Back home now and he has really looked the part in two jump outs. Won’t be fully screwed down, but I don’t think he has to be to win this. The $2.25 all in price is a gift IMO…should be a clear odds on pop given he is the best sprinter in the world.
Big Danger: 1 Buffering (Bet Now: $6.50) is an absolute marvel for Rob Heathcoate who proved on the world stage he is top class with a win on Dubai World Cup night before failing in that Chairmans Sprint where he sustained an injury. Retirement was on the agenda but he is back now and he looked outstanding in winning a recent Eagle Farm trial, and ran smart time under little pressure. Two time winner of this race, he’ll lead and give an almighty sight.
Roughie: 3 Lucky Hussler (Bet Now: $8.50) hasn’t raced since finishing down the track behind Flamberge in the William Reid (1200m) here in the Autumn. Dodged the winter and has been given a really good break. Trialled well recently at Casterton, he flies fresh, loves the Valley and the speed up front will really suit him. If there is a knockout, it will come courtesy of this bloke.
Race Eight (22:00) : William Hill Handicap (90) 1200m:
Back Me: If you backed 4 Sir Bacchus (Bet Now: $2.70) last time out at Rosehill, I think you have forgive and forget he went around given he lumped the big weight, he was back near the inside and just had too much to do. I think he can sit closer in the run here from the good draw, and on talent and ability, he is clearly the best horse in the race.
Big Danger: 3 Heza Ripper (Bet Now: $7.50) comes back to Victoria after a two run stint in SA where he won impressively on both occasions. He has run well at the Valley previously, but he is low flying now and a much better horse. He’ll take some beating here.
Roughie: 12 Streetwise Savoire (Bet Now: $51.00) is such an interesting runner here. This former Tassie galloper is now under the care of Patrick Payne and though his best form is over slightly further, he has really looked sharp in a couple of barrier trials. Draws well and gets the claim for Mick Dee. I’ll be definitely seeing if there is a market push.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Chautauqua
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 8 Plot The Course
VALUE: Race Four Number 6 General Jackson
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10
Leg Three: 2
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 12
$50 Investment= 28.57% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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