An excellent card of racing has been assembled to be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday, where the feature race is the $200,000 Group ll Expressway Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit. This will be the first time the rail has been in the true position since November 28 where leaders found it hard to win and away from the rail was the place to be.
Race One (12:40) : McGrath Estate Agents Handicap (91) 1500m:
Back Me: I am still standing by my prediction that 4 Start Wondering (Best Odds: $1.50) is a future Group l winner. He is a high class animal for Chris Waller who was outstanding in defeat here last time out when sitting three and four wide no cover for the trip when fourth to Great Esteem. Has since trialled here and his turn of foot over the final 100m in the trial just oozed quality. Normal luck here and he’ll be winning.
Big Danger: 3 Marenostro (Best Odds: $3.30) was a strong first up winner at Canterbury before backing up seven days later at Randwick and looked home, but was nabbed right on the peg by Snippets Land. Should be at peak fitness now and will love the conditions. The only serious threat to his stablemate.
Roughie: 6 Zee Zeely (Best Odds: $17.00) resumes here for Gai off the back of a couple of handy trials, the latest when third to Bull Point at Randwick on December 29. Best form is over further, but expect him to be wound up given his residence is Tulloch Lodge.
Race Two (13:20) : TAB Highway Plate (Class 3) 1500m:
Back Me: 6 Hermosa Beach (Best Odds: $2.80) ran over 1400m at Randwick in a Highway race and was ridden beautifully by Brenton Avdulla, with the daughter of Magnus recording another impressive win. There is a bit to like about her and I think she is better than this level. Looks the way to go.
Big Danger: 10 Istanbul (Best Odds: $3.20) ran in the same Highway race mentioned above where he got a long way back in the run before letting down nicely late to run fourth, beaten just over a length in a pleasing effort. He meets that horse much better at the weights, and the extra 100m suits, so he can definitely turn the tables.
Roughie: 1 Halfpenny Gate (Best Odds: $4.80) just missed out on winning a couple of weeks back at Warwick Farm, having to settle for a close second to Never Back Down, who had momentum out wide and got the verdict. He was only second up there, so he has upside and will be better suited on the bigger track.
Race Three (13:55) : Canonbury Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: Going with 4 Mount Panorama (Best Odds: $8.50) to bounce back. Forgive and forget he went around on debut at Randwick given he missed the start and had to go back to the inside, which was the no-go zone. The market support for him was very strong, so I’ll respect that, and now that he is back on his home track, he’ll prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: 5 Defcon (Best Odds: $2.20) makes his long awaited debut here for Team Snowden. At the official trials back in September, he won and looked better than Capitalist, and we know what Capitalist has done since. This horse trialled last Tuesday here and while he won, the trial wasn’t that impressive. On hype and earlier trials, he goes in as the threat.
Roughie: 8 Star Of Monsoon (Best Odds: $3.60) debuts here for Gerald Ryan off the back of a nice trial win here last Tuesday where he won narrowly but impressively. Never easy to win at this level on debut against exposed race day form, but he looks talented and is trained on the track.
Race Four (14:30) : Widden Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 4 Aghna (Best Odds: $3.80) is a talented filly for Gabby Englebrecht who debuted in the Wyong Magic Millions and stuck on well when third to Capitalist, who is the best two year old in Australia. Has since trialled at Randwick and looked outstanding. Looks high class and should take some beating here.
Big Danger: 5 Chipanda (Best Odds: $6.00) debuted over this distance at Randwick in late October and was a bit disappointing I thought when running third to Star Turn as an odds on pop. The winner is smart, so the form reads well, and she comes here also off the back of an impressive trial.
Roughie: 3 Kentucky Miss (Best Odds: $7.00) was kept safe in betting when debuting on her home track at Warwick Farm where she sat on speed and bolted clear to win impressively on the heavy track, so a rain affected track here will be no issue, and despite drawing wide, she should prove hard to beat.
Race Five (15:05) : TAB More Than Just Winning Handicap (72) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Hierarchal (Best Odds: $21.00) for me at some value. This colt resumes for Anthony Cummings after a really solid Spring prep, with the highlight being a fast finishing fourth to Vanbrugh in the Spring Champion (2000m). He has been nominated for the Guineas and Australian Cup, so obviously the stable has a high opinion, and he has looked pretty good in a couple of trials.
Big Danger: 7 Laucala (Best Odds: $6.00) is another talented type that resumes, this one for Chris Waller. This daughter of More Than Ready ended her Spring with a closing fifth to subsequent Group l placegetter Ambience. She has looked good at the trials, handles all conditions and she was outstanding in her lone first up appearance.
Roughie: 9 Miss Sydney (Best Odds: $17.00) was unwanted in betting when resuming at Randwick but was too good for her rivals. She then went to Warwick Farm and was very disappointing behind Dixie Blossoms. I’ll put that down to second up syndrome. She’s on her home track now, so she can improve sharply.
Race Six (15:45) : Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap (85) 2000m:
Back Me: 6 Another Cocktail (Best Odds: $3.20) ran over the Randwick mile a couple of weeks back when working home strongly to run a close up fourth to surprise winner Piamimi, beaten just under lengths. Was due to run last Saturday, but was scratched. There is plenty to like about him, and third up at 2000m on his home track just looks perfect.
Big Danger: 4 Magical Stance (Best Odds: $5.00) was a little unlucky not to win that Piamimi race mentioned above given he had to carry 59kg and was forced to make ground near the inside, which was the inferior ground. Back up to 2000m is perfect, loves racing at Rosehill and is rock hard fit.
Roughie: Don’t rule out 11 Frank Who (Best Odds: $10.00). Forget he went around last time out in that Piamimi race given he pulled up lame. He is much better than that, he gives the impression he will eat up the 2000m, trained on the track and will handle a wet track. He is a knockout hope at odds.
Race Seven (16:25) : Expressway Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Going with the ‘Rockhampton Rocket’, 4 Our Boy Malachi (Best Odds: $1.80), who returns to racing after a bleeding attack during the Doomben 10,000 behind Boban. His trial win here was brilliant, beating home Winx, but the trial on Monday at Warwick Farm was less than convincing, though he was tardy away. On the Rosehill trial, he’ll take some beating here.
Big Danger: 2 Tiger Tees (Best Odds: $7.00) is the class runner engaged here. He is a Group l performer who didn’t really disgrace himself in the Spring, with the highlight being a sixth to Chautauqua in the Manikato (1200m). He has looked the goods leading in, he loves a wet track and is a five time first up winner.
Roughie: 6 Forget (Best Odds: $21.00) resumes here for Kim Waugh after a solid Spring prep, which ended with a gritty win in the Cameron Handicap (1500m) at Newcastle. Comes here off the back of a sharp trial win at Wyong, running smart time. He runs well fresh, has a good record at Rosehill and loves wet ground, so despite the rise to WFA, he could be a knockout hope.
Race Eight (17:05) : Cellarbrations Handicap (78) 1350m:
Back Me: Keen here on the Chris Waller trained 2 Elle Lou (Best Odds: $7.50), who was formerly with Team Hawkes. Her in the Magic Millions Mares Handicap (1300m) at the Gold Coast was one of the runs of the meeting given she came from near last on the turn to run sixth to I Am Zelady, and it was a day where it was near impossible to make up significant ground from the back. She has run well over 1500m on a heavy track, so she’ll handle the 1350m here. Clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: 12 Painted Firetail (Best Odds: $2.50) had to make ground near the inside, which was quicksand, at Randwick a fortnight back when a closing second to River Wild. She looks to have her fair share of talent, and despite taking on the older mares, she should take some beating.
Roughie: 7 Made To Order (Best Odds: $26.00) is now with Gai Waterhouse after formerly being with Chris Waller and Matty Dunn. I haven’t minded the way this mare has gone about her business in a couple of trials, and on her best form, she’d spank these. Best form is over further, but she can sprint well fresh.
Race Nine (17:45) : Tab.com.au Handicap (85) 1100m:
Back Me: 10 Maddhal (Best Odds: $5.50) resumes here for Joe Pride. He had two runs in the Spring and didn’t really fire a shot. Spelled, and looked to trial very well on Monday at Warwick Farm. He can run well fresh and his Rosehill form is strong. Watch for market moves.
Big Danger: 13 Stravigo (Best Odds: $2.10) looks so well placed here. He carried 58kg last time out at Randwick and loomed to win, but he didn’t quite run the 1200m out and was out wide on the track, where it was near impossible to make up ground. Tumbles down to 51.5kg now and will do no work from the gate.
Roughie: 3 Happy Galaxy (Best Odds: $11.00) resumes here for Gary Moore. His first up record is terrible, but gee I loved his trial placing here behind Sooboog where he could have won the trial, but he wasn’t let down. Draws wide, but he can handle a wet track and that trial was too good to dismiss.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Elle Lou
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Start Wondering
VALUE: Race Five Number 2 Hierarchal
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 9, 11
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7
Leg Three: Field
Leg Four: 2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 13
$50 Investment= 4.16% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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