30/9/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

A strong ten race card has been set down for Moonee Valley on Friday night. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

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I’ll take a chance with 5 Verifier (Bet Now: $12.00), who returns to racing as a gelding for Nigel Blackiston. He showed promise as a juvenile in two runs, but was very raw and new to the caper. He’s been gelded, he’s jumped out well in readiness for his return and at the odds, I have to speck him each way.

7 Born Hustler (Bet Now: $4.50) is bred to appreciate a staying trip so rising to the mile is ideal. He ran in the Elkington Road race from Trial Day at Flemington and worked to the line okay from the back without really threatening behind the Moroney horse. Last three runs have come at 1400m so the rise to the mile is a big tick.

4 Black Samurai (Bet Now: $9.50) should appreciate a rise to the mile. He comes through the Caulfield Guineas Prelude where he got a mile out of his ground and was never a factor behind Aft Cabin, but it is Aft Cabin, the dominant Guineas favourite, so that form has to read well for a 64, and Black Samurai should appreciate a rise to the mile.

5 Savannah Cloud (Bet Now: $2.30) is quite clearly the one they have to beat. Resumed over 1200m at Geelong when wide no cover for the trip and he fought on very well in defeat when second to I Am War. You go back to his form last time, including a third to Yonce, gee that reads well for this.

6 I Am War (Bet Now: $4.80) will jump on the bunny and prove hard to run down. He has won three of five this time in, including his last two. Dominant all the way win last time, beating Savannah Cloud, but if you switch the runs, clearly you switch the result. He’ll lead, Savannah Cloud will stalk…he’ll run very well. Just not sure he can hold off Savannah Cloud.

8 Asymmetrical (Bet Now: $8.50) is a handy mare for the Busuttin/Young camp that resumes. She hasn’t raced since the Adelaide Carnival when far from disgraced in the Nitschke behind Illation, who at the time looked a world beater. Close up second in the Bendigo Guineas the start prior so the form reads very well and her trial/jumpout work has been encouraging.

11 Cannon (Bet Now: $3.80) on top in what looks a tricky maiden. Team Hawkes trained three year old that has been strong in three career outings. He was kept quite safe in betting at Sale. He was tucked in behind the speed and loomed to win but couldn’t quite get there when second to a handy one in Custodian. Gets a significant jockey upgrade and maps ideally from the gate.

4 Plus Fours (Bet Now: $5.50) is a key threat. He resumed on the Synthetic at Pakenham where he just took a little while to wind into his work but was good late when third, beaten a half length. Staying at 1200m is the knock with him because I do feel he would love a rise in trip. But, if they overdo it in front, he’ll be strong at the end.

Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for 3 New York Hurricane (Bet Now: $17.00). Liam Howley trained three year old that resumed over 1000m at Bendigo where he was run off his legs but was good late when fourth to a handy one in Wee Nessy, who bolted up last Saturday at Mornington. Like him up in trip and if the inside gate is used to advantage, he’ll take beating.

8 Hopkins (Bet Now: $6.00) is flying for the Busuttin/Young camp and in a tricky race, I am leaning his way. He’s on the back up after racing on Saturday at Mornington where he sat back in a slowly run race and was very good late when second to an in form Holster. He’ll likely sit back last but with a drag into the race, he’ll launch and be strong at the end.

3 Keats (Bet Now: $1.90) is one of the main contenders. He spanked an average lot two back at Sale in the first run for the new stable. He then went to Flemington where he led, stuck towards the inside and battled on well when fourth to a Saturday class horse in Unanimous. Rise to 2040m looks ideal, lands on speed and Willow sticks.

10 Eaton (Bet Now: $41.00) has a good record at The Valley and got good upside. Doubt he wins because he does need several runs to find his feet, his latest run being at Sandown when down the track behind Jupitus. Teo does ride him very well, he can sit handy and he can dig in if he’s going any good.

These 3000m races is usually about survival of the fittest and if indeed that is the case, 8 Laughing Grizzley (Bet Now: $6.50) will be the strongest late IMO. He looked a good thing on paper when racing over 2400m at Geelong and he made a mess of them. What impressed me is that he got better as the race went on, so 3000m should be fine, and Yendall sticks.

10 Raid The Bar (Bet Now: $5.50) has the 3000m run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead. That 3000m run was a strong win on the Synthetic at Pakenham, albeit it was a fairly ordinary 58, but at least he has the miles in the legs and maps ideally from the soft gate.

5 Secret Sheema (Bet Now: $17.00) should appreciate firmer footing. She raced on a bottomless deck at Flemington last time and battled on okay in the testing conditions behind a progressive import, Port Philip. Form prior was quite sound and back on top of the ground, she can run a much improved race.

9 Our Boy Bryan (Bet Now: $3.60) gets the nod. Matt Laurie trained gelding that has been strong in two runs back from a spell. He resumed with a second to a handy horse, Blow In, at Geelong. He then went to Sandown where he was near the speed throughout and fought on well when third to Jupitus. Hard fit now, got the right racing pattern and overall, I don’t think this is an overly strong race.

3 Jolting (Bet Now: $6.50) is flying for Reece Goodwin, albeit his recent racing has come on the Synthetic at Pakenham. He won three races on the bounce there before a closing second to The Big Heist last Thursday. If he can translate the Synthetic form to the Turf, he’ll be hard to beat.

1 Denero (Bet Now: $18.00) is a knockout hope if this track has juice in it, because his resumption was encouraging, which came at Sandown. He was back near last in the run and was never a factor but made up ground and was a definite pass mark. Doubt he wins, but a first four threat at a price.

An inside gate in the 955m worked wonders last Friday night with Asfoora…I’m going to that well again with 5 Aminatu (Bet Now: $5.00). She resumes for Trevor Rogers after a pretty good Summer/Autumn prep, which included a win at this track/distance. Not a noted fresh horse but her recent trial win at Cranbourne was electric. Hard to beat with luck.

10 Bubble Palace (Bet Now: $3.30) deserves another look. Put together a couple of sharp wins to start her career in the Autumn, including a dominant win during the Warrnambool Carnival. She resumed in the Cap D’Antibes and was outclassed behind Nanagui. Much better suited here, a key threat.

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6 Smokin’ Holly (Bet Now: $5.00) does look a 1000m horse so 955m here should be ideal. Ran over 1000m at Mornington last time out where she was near the speed throughout and battled on really well in defeat when fourth to Squizzy Mizzy. Gets a good run from the gate and is hard fit.

3 Viviane (Bet Now: $1.60) looks to be one of two good things on the card. Talented mare for Matty Ellerton that has been good in two runs back from a spell. She gapped them fresh at Sale before going to Sandown where she looked the winner when she trucked up outside the leader Neverstandingstill, but that horse showed good fight to fend off Viviane and win, with a gap to third. Form last prep was strong, form this prep is strong…she does look the one.

7 Beneficio (Bet Now: $7.00) is a chance if the fav is off her game. She resumed on the Synthetic at Ballarat and she made a mess of them from the front, burning the candle at both ends. Even allowing for the fact that track plays towards those in front, the win was impressive, so she commands some level of respect.

6 Tycoon Humma (Bet Now: $9.50) is a first four contender. She resumed in the Neverstandingstill race mentioned above that Viviane contested. She was back in the run and never really a factor but didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind that pair. If she is within range on the turn, her best is good enough to be dangerous.

11 Outback Action (Bet Now: $1.50) is the other good thing on the program. Peter Moody trained gelding that resumes after a three run Autumn prep to start his career. He only won the one race, but it was an outstanding maiden win at Mornington in fast time before placing to Star Patrol down the straight at Flemington. Jumpout work has been strong, he finds little to no depth and I think only bad luck beats him.

14 I See You Coming (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Lindsey Smith trained gelding who comes here off a freshen up. Several weeks between runs since racing at Warracknabeal where he was a short priced elect but let punters down with a plain finale behind Atomic Gold. Fresh is best for him, and should appreciate firmer footing.

The career of 1 Pegasi (Bet Now: $10.00) was at the crossroads not long ago but he has found somewhere near his best since going to the Ballarat Synthetic. He has won his past two there and each time, he has been strong to the line in winning, albeit in much easier races than this. Doubt he wins, but one for multiples.

To say 10 Perfect Darling (Bet Now: $6.50) is prepped up for her return to racing is an understatement. Tom Dabernig trained mare that resumes, having not raced since Feb 20 at Ballarat when pulling up with excuses behind The Ciscos Kid. Four jumpouts to get ready for her return indicates she’s wound up and maps ideally from the gate.

9 Cantina (Bet Now: $4.20) is suited back to 1200m I feel. She ran over 1300m at Sandown at the midweeks last time and worked to the line okay but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Savonia. That was her first run in seven weeks so fitter, with that run under the belt, it should hold her in good stead for this.

11 Get On The Gas (Bet Now: $8.00) has run well at The Valley previously and stable finds Olly to steer, so he is in the mix. He resumed on testing ground at Geelong and just couldn’t pick his feet up in the conditions behind Aerovictory. Firmer footing here, Olly on, he can run a much improved race.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Viviane

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 11 Outback Action

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 8 Laughing Grizzley

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 9, 10

Leg Two: 3

Leg Three: 11

Leg Four: 7, 9, 10, 11

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