30/9/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Underwood Stakes day

A ripping card of racing has been assembled for Caulfield this Saturday, with the feature being the Group l Underwood Stakes (1800m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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3 Holbein (Bet Now: $4.60 FAT ODDS) is a Steve Richards trained four year old who was a narrow third here first up behind Bryan before going to the 1400m at Geelong where he was near the speed and seemingly was always in control, putting them away and was pretty impressive. Only has to repeat that effort to go close here.

2 Eclair Calling (Bet Now: $5.00 FAT ODDS) is likeable here. Comes through a 1400m race at Flemington where the race was overall quite quick and he didn’t turn it up at all, running a solid third to Violate. Dollar For Dollar has since come out and been beaten a lip in the Sir Rupert Clarke so that form reads well, should get a nice sit off the speed and the claim for Caserta helps.

9 Wayanka (Bet Now: $14.00 FAT ODDS) is a definite improver. He ran over the mile at Moonee Valley three weeks ago and for mine just did a bit too much work on speed when midfield behind stablemate The Avenger. Run prior here behind Streets Of Avalon was a beauty and from gate one, Bowman should hold a forward spot.

I’ll take a chance on 10 Take It Intern (Bet Now: $15.00 FAT ODDS), who makes his Australian debut for the Weir team. Doesn’t have the A1 form when he raced in the UK but he was progressive with plenty of upside to come. Like him at 1400m fresh. Just want to see a market push and if it comes, I’ll be happy to be with him.

6 Waging War (Bet Now: $5.50 FAT ODDS) is a MacDonald/Gluyas trained mare who is over three weeks between runs since resuming in the Penny Edition at Caulfield where I thought she got a definite pass mark in defeat for mine behind Theanswermyfriend. Hopefully the sprint is still in her legs for the 1400m again here.

9 Sirrconi (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS) is a Peter Morgan trained gelding who resumes. He hasn’t raced since early June over the Valley mile when midfield behind Gaulois. Recent trial was quite good and though his fresh record is nothing flash, I reckon there’s intent to run well given he resumes at 1400m. Could be a sleeper at odds.

1 Prized Icon (Bet Now: $2.00 FAT ODDS) should be winning this. Multiple Group l winner who has been pretty good since joining the Kris Lees team, and on numerous occasions has run well behind Winx. He comes through the Cameron at Newcastle where he found the 1500m a bit sharp I thought but was sound in defeat. 2000m looks his go and barring bad luck should win.

3 Bondeiger (Bet Now: $9.00 FAT ODDS) is going really well for Darren Weir and gets a great chance to get a win on the board. He ran over 2040m at the Valley three weeks ago and worked home well from off the pace behind Trap For Fools. Been in work a while but is working to a win and he definitely finds a winnable one here.

Looks an ideal race for the Hayes/Dabernig trained galloper 8 Legale (Bet Now: $11.00 FAT ODDS). Was a couple of months between runs when racing over 1500m at Ballarat where Zahra had him near the speed and he looked to travel sweetly. As he did in the first prep, didn’t have the turn of foot and Octabello just proved too sharp. Up to 2000m is ideal and has upside.

I think 4 Crystal Fountain (Bet Now: $26.00 FAT ODDS) is the way to go. Close up third fresh at this track/distance behind La Bella Diosa before going to the Cockram where she just found that class a bit rich when midfield behind Ellicazoom. Is a third up winner and I think back to 1100m and back to this level, she’ll take beating.

It’s hard to ignore the deeds of 6 Our Malambo (Bet Now: $34.00 FAT ODDS) since coming from NZ. Chris Waller has this mare, who has won two of her three runs since coming over, with a solid fourth in between. The win four weeks back at the Valley was pretty impressive albeit aided by bias. Toughest test to date, but she’s a beauty who tries hard.

11 Split Lip (Bet Now: $26.00 FAT ODDS) is a fascinating runner. Formerly with Will Clarken but is now with Darren Weir. Has contested some really good races throughout her career, with her last start seeing her place in the Proud Miss. Now with Weir and her recent Ballarat jump out was okay. Market will be the guide to her.

1 Kemono (Bet Now: $5.00)  for me. Darren Weir trains this Japanese import, who has had a couple of runs in Australia and has been quite good. The latest run came in the Bobbie Lewis where it was an odd steer from Williams, going straight to the inside after drawing wide. Probably cost him in the end when beaten narrowly by Dothraki. Third up now, he should be ready. Just want to see him put them away.

7 Trekking (Bet Now: $3.70) is a hard fit/in form sprinter for Godolphin and James Cummings. Loved the way he knuckled down to win a fortnight back at Randwick. He got into a struggle and was there to be beaten but he found when challenged and held on. Toughest test since being gelded but I think he’ll run well once again.

5 Duke Of Brunswick (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Mick Price trained gelding who resumes. He had the one run in the Autumn, which came in the Hareeba where he was quite good in defeat I thought behind Stellar Collision. Looked decent enough to my eye in a recent Cranbourne trial and can sprint well fresh. Key chance for sure.

Keen on 14 Declarationofheart (Bet Now: $4.80). I thought he was one of the runs of the day in terms of beaten horses when contesting the Exford at Flemington. Just gave them too much head start but you had to like the way he finished his race off behind Brutal, running a closing fourth. Query is he wants further, but clearly has the class factor and hopefully won’t be spotting them such a big start.

It’ll be interesting to see what 12 Fighting Harada (Bet Now: $20.00) can achieve if he gets clear air. He hasn’t got that in both runs this time in at Sandown, first up beaten narrowly by Smart Elissim before racing there again and this time getting no luck at all when bolting. The 1400m does look ideal for him. Just give him normal luck so we get the chance to see what’s under the hood.

11 Tavisan (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Mick Price trained colt who comes through the Danehill where Melham had him on speed down the Flemington straight and despite being the first under pressure, he found plenty, only to be bloused late by Encryption. Back around a bend and up to 1400m looks an ideal recipe.

Hard to get away from 3 Smart Melody (Bet Now: $2.10). Star filly for Kris Lees who comes through the Cap D’Antibes where she looked in a bit of trouble halfway in the run but the last 200m, when she had to knuckled down, she did, and the way she drew clear late was that of a Group l horse. Keen to see her at 1400m.

1 El Dorado Dreaming (Bet Now: $10.00) could easily blow this field away. Sires winner from the Autumn that is now with Kris Lees. The worrying signs were that her win in the Group l was just a one off, but if the trials are any guide, she could well win another Group l this time in. She’s come back enormous and will be strong at the end.

15 Cristal Eyes (Bet Now: $27.00) is an improver up in trip. She ran behind Smart Melody in the Cap D’Antibes where she got back and was working into the race nicely, looming to finish off but just died on the run. I think up to 1400m and back on a bending track, she can improve. Improve enough to win though? I’d say no.

7 Blair House (Bet Now: $4.70) for me. He’s got the A1 form from Dubai that reads very well for this. Lovely ride from Doyle got him the Jebel Hatta win two back before going to the Dubai Turf where he didn’t have much luck at all and was quite good very late when eventually in a race won by Benbatl, who of course is being talked up as a Cox Plate horse. If he brings his best, I think he’ll be too good.

Forgive a good horse for one poor run so I’ll do that with 2 Humidor  (Bet Now: $4.40). His Makybe Diva run, on paper, wasn’t flash, but the track was quite shifty by the time that race was run and he was never really in the hunt, like most backmarkers. He’s too good of a horse to dismiss off one average effort.

Was hard to ignore the resumption of 8 Homseman (Bet Now: $7.00) in the Dato. Loved the way he fought it out late when beaten narrowly by Magic Consol. Was looking as if he’d run a solid 4th/5th, but he dug in and ran second. Form out of that has been good thanks to Night’s Watch and this horse should only have upside.

10 Furrion (Bet Now: $2.10) does look the winner, with remaining at 1700m the only niggle. I thought Jye McNeil rode a 12/10 on the horse last time at Flemington, not pushing the button too early, which he could have easily done given the engine underneath, but he waited and that won the race. He’s better than this level. Just a query at the distance and whether he wants further now.

I’ll be surprised if 16 Danon Roman (Bet Now: $6.00) doesn’t win races. Made his Australian debut in the Furrion race from a couple of weeks back and I thought he did a really good job behind a couple of high class animals. Does he want further now? That’s the query, but hard to ignore the Australian debut.

2 Life Less Ordinary (Bet Now: $11.00) got a definite pass mark for mine when resuming over 1400m here a month back. Didn’t really move forward or back but stuck on pretty well for a 2000m+ horse in a race won by Night’s Watch. Decent second up record…might need one more, but can certainly fill a drum with luck in running.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 14 Declarationofheart

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Prized Icon

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 10 Take It Intern

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

=Leg One: 14

Leg Two: 1, 3, 13, 15

Leg Three: 2, 7, 8, 10

Leg Four: 2, 4, 8, 10, 16

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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