30/7/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

A nine race meeting has been assembled for Moonee Valley this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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I’m pretty keen on 2 Not Usual Glorious (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS). Travis Doudle trained gelding that puts himself on speed and fights. He bolted up two back at Casterton before showing superb grit to fend them off and win at Caulfield. Think he’ll lead comfortably from the gate, get control and it’ll take a good one to get past him.

1 D’Aguilar (Bet Now: $2.60) is the main threat with the small field. Ran over 2000m at Flemington a fortnight back and I reckon they rode him a touch too warm, which told late when a tiring fourth to Hezashocka. Small field, he’ll sit in the second pair you’d assume, stalk, and get last look.

3 Mohican Heights (Bet Now: $4.80) is working up to a win I feel. I’d love to see him at 2400m/2500m rather than staying at 2000m, but he was very good from the back two weeks back at Flemington behind Hezashocka, beaten just over a length. Small field helps his cause and has good upside.

I’m with 8 Prado (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS), who resumes for Team Freedman. This colt debuted at Bendigo back in February when a deep odds on pop where he was near the speed and there to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Fission. He’s looked sharp in a couple of jumpouts and with J Kah aboard, he’ll do me.

1 Alpha One (Bet Now: $2.35 TOP ODDS) has put it together this time in, winning 2/2. Spanked an average lot fresh over 900m at Newcastle before going to 1000m at Hawkesbury where sustained speed came to the fore and he was an impressive winner. Like him at 955m and has a good racing style.

3 Fission (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Russian Revolution for the Griffiths/De Kock camp that resumes. He hasn’t raced since his debut at Bendigo back in February where he was near the speed throughout but trucked with purpose and put the race to bed nicely to win. Jumpout work leading in has been solid and has the early speed suited to this race style.

The jump/run set up of 955m looks ideal for 1 Bistro (Bet Now: $4.50 TOP ODDS), who resumes for Team Freedman. She had a four run prep to start her career in the Autumn, highlighted by a dominant win in the Cinderella at Listed level at Morphettville. Looked sharp in a recent Werribee jumpout and gets Jamie Kah.

3 Va Via (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a James Cummings trained filly that resumes. Showed good change up speed to win two back at Sandown before going to Flemington where she was far from disgraced in defeat behind Ruthless Dane. She’s had two trials in Sydney to get ready and looks sharp. Just needs luck from the gate.

8 Bie’res (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) looks to be a filly with ability. She was well specked at odds when debuting at Flemington two weeks ago and I thought the way she finished her race off behind impressive winner Giga Kick was quite sound. Had jumped out well leading in, so keen to see how she goes in what should be a fast run 955m.

1 Freedom Escape (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) looks a three year old of some promise for Paul Preusker. Big win against the pattern to win two back at Warracknabeal. He then went to 1700m at Flemington where he was unlucky not to win, getting a mile out of his ground but savaged the line late to just miss out on the win when a narrow second to Thalassophile. He’ll love a rise to 2040m and hopefully can settle closer in the run.

12 The Red Kite (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) can run an improved race. He ran in the Duke Of Hastings race from several weeks back at Caulfield where they rode him a bit warm and I reckon it backfired, feeling the pinch late behind the Simon Zahra horse. He then went to Flemington when back in trip and stuck on well after working near the speed. I think with a patient steer, he’ll be fine.

16 Permutation (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is one with good upside for Paul Preusker. He was 1300m straight to 1700m two weeks back at Flemington and despite being a maiden, he was very good from the back when third to Thalassophile. He looks as though he’ll eat up 2040m and in the right camp for a progressive lightly raced stayer.

1 Strawberry Rock (Bet Now: $21.00) gets a look for me at a price. I think he’s a working progress for the Maher/Eustace camp that is third up at 2500m, so he should just about be ready to go. Fist couple of runs have been on genuine wet ground over unsuitable trips, so be forgiving. He gets a much better set up this time around and his UK form does read quite well.

2 King’s Charisma (Bet Now: $11.00) is knocking on the door to win for the Maher/Eustace stable. He had a jumps trial leading into his run at Caulfield three weeks back where he got a mile out of his ground but was very good late behind Reuber. That was his first run since June 11, so you’d like think there is improvement to come.

10 Black Queen (Bet Now: $9.50) can bounce back. She ran several weeks back at Rosehill on the bottomless and was a beaten horse 1000m out in the horrendous conditions, finishing 16 lengths from the winner. Prior form suggested she was working up to a win, so I am not dismissing her.

11 Thalassophile (Bet Now: $5.50) has been up a little while for Chris Waller but is holding her form nicely. Very good in defeat from the back two starts ago behind Arran Bay in the Silver Bowl Final. Then raced again at Flemington two weeks ago and was ridden with more intent, the end result being a strong win. Back to 1600m no issue and she’s an example of a Waller horse finding form and holding it.

2 American Angel (Bet Now: $4.20) can bounce back. Danny O’Brien trained mare that has had two runs back from a break, both over 1400m at Flemington. Latest run was June 18 when doing work and tiring late behind Grande Rumore. She races well on the fresh side, handles give in the track and is a winner at the track.

1 Bea Tempted (Bet Now: $21.00) is likely using this as a prep run for something next start, but she’ll be strong late if they overdo it in front. Her latest run was several weeks back at Murray Bridge in essentially a barrier trial, where she was near the back and was never a factor given the race shape. Her best is good enough.

10 Set To Prophet (Bet Now: $5.50) looks a progressive animal for Team Freedman and big tick for him has seemingly been the Blinkers put on, where he is 2/2, the latest win being at Murray Bridge a few weeks ago when an impressive winner from off the speed, beating the older horses. Hard to beat back to his own age.

Back to the mile I do like for 6 El Cordobes (Bet Now: $6.00). He was a strong second at Morphettville two back over 1500m before going to 1700m at Flemington where he was there to win but 1700m just found him out when fifth to Thalassophile. Back to 1600m I do like and I do think this is a winnable race with his best.

1 Prix De Turn (Bet Now: $10.00) is a fascinating runner. Matty Brown trained three year old that resumes, having not raced since surprising most with a dominant Alister Clark win over 2040m here before being spelled. Two jumpouts and a trial, he’s got the fitness base to run a forward race fresh.

12 Tavidance (Bet Now: $4.50) is sneaky flying for the Price/Kent team. Narrow second to Biometric fresh at Flemington before going to Caulfield where he was back in the run and worked to the line strongly late when fourth to Edison. He’s racing like a mile suits, he gets that here and has upside.

13 Lackeen (Bet Now: $7.00) has come back in really good order for James Cummings and is a definite winning chance. Good in a race shape that didn’t suit fresh at Randwick behind Coal Crusher. He then went to Caulfield where he didn’t quite get the rub of the green when a closing fifth to Edison. If he can settle closer in the run, he’ll take beating.

7 Irish Flame (Bet Now: $31.00) has a good record at The Valley and his best is good enough to be dangerous at odds. He resumed behind Edison at Caulfield and while he was never a threat given the race shape, his finale was sound, likewise his late splits. Doubt he wins, but could sneak a first four spot.

11 Home Rule (Bet Now: $4.50) on top in the get out and not really a race I want to get involved in. Maddie Raymond trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced since June 15 at Sandown when on speed throughout and he gave a very solid kick, but was nabbed late by an in form Skywolf. Fresh legs, he’ll press forward and take beating.

2 Whipcracker Way (Bet Now: $6.50) is a key threat. He is three weeks between runs since racing over 1100m at Caulfield when getting the suck run behind the speed and battled away really well when third to Daralina Belle. Finding it hard to win, but he bring strong form lines.

14 Diamonds Inthe Sky (Bet Now: $16.00) is suited up in trip for Peter Moody. Was 1200m back to 1000m when racing down the straight at Flemington. She was near the speed throughout and battled away pretty well in defeat behind Squid Game. Back up in trip, she’s a definite improver.

BEST BET: Race One Number 2 Not Usual Glorious

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Tavidance

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 1 Strawberry Rock

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 11, 13

Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 10

Leg Three: 12, 13

Leg Four: 1, 2, 11, 14

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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