Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday where it is Civic Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:30) Half Yearly Membership Handicap 1400m
I like 4 Bubbles’n’Troubles (Bet Now: $3.50) here. Didn’t think much of her debut win at first glance but upon reflection, it was sharp work considering she was on debut, did the work on speed and then when asked for the effort, there was a response and she drew clear like a good one. Confident she can measure up here.
2 Toulouse (Bet Now: $3.00) returned this prep as a gelding for David Payne a fortnight back at this track/distance and the big bets were landed as he finished best with his class and staying prowess coming to the fore. He showed good promise in the Autumn but the gelding operation looks to have turned him into a race horse.
5 Pohutukawa (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Megdalia D’Oro filly for Godolphin and James Cummings who was good on debut behind Whiteley before going to Hawkesbury where a lovely rail hugging ride from Blake Spriggs got her home over 1300m in a pretty solid win. 1400m looks no issue and has that hard race fitness under the belt.
Race 2. (12:05) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1400m
Hard to see anything other than a 4 Bocelli (Bet Now: $2.70) win. Tash Burleigh trains this very promising gelding, who I think will be a Country Championships horse for next year. Backed off the map last time out at Goulburn and under Corey Brown, he absolutely trotted in and smashed the clock in the process. Dynamic Dynasty franked that form at Scone, but this horse does look very good.
5 Gitan (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Jean Dubois trained gelding who is resuming. He is a Highway specialist, running in a stack of them without winning. He tried to qualify for the Country Chamoionship via the Goulburn heat and then the Wildcard, failing to qualify. Two trials leading in have been pretty good and stable should always be respected.
The Jeremy Sylvester team nearly landed some big bets with 9 Gronky (Bet Now: $1.00) when racing in a Highway over 1500m here a fortnight back, backing him into $26 from $51 and the plunge nearly came off, only just missing out on picking up My Blue Jeans. Should sit closer in the run from the draw and remains down in the weights.
Race 3. (12:40) #theraces Handicap (80) 1500m
I’m a fan of 5 Asterius (Bet Now: $10.00). Just had the one trial prior to resuming over 1400m at Kembla a fortnight back where he defied an alarming betting drift to find the best part of the track and finishing off with purpose to win impressively. Up to 1500m second up looks an ideal recipe, he has upside and last prep had some decent city form.
2 Curdled (Bet Now: $8.50) looks to be going really well for Gerald Ryan but now just needs to put a win on the board. Looked home here a fortnight back when hitting the front but was nabbed on the peg by Nicci’s Gold. He’s working up towards a win I feel and I think he gets a great chance here. Serious respect.
8 Sparky Lad (Bet Now: $12.00) comes through the Nicci’s Gold race over 1400m here two weeks ago where he was close up behind that filly despite finishing seventh of nine, beaten just under two lengths. He’s a bludger to follow, but I reckon he isn’t far away and perhaps up to the 1500m will see some improvement.
Race 4. (13:15) Book Spring Now Sprint (80) 1100m
7 Duchess Pedrille (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Hinchinbrook mare resuming for Ron Quinton. She hasn’t raced since the Autumn Carnival when working home pretty well late in the Triscay behind Faraway Town. Has just had the one trial leading in, but did look good enough to my eye behind Bandipur. If they go silly in front, look for her to be strong late.
The speed map fans will be all over 2 Brook Magic (Bet Now: $2.30) now with the scratching of Alassio, because she should get a very good time of it in front. Got that first up at Randwick and showed good fight to get the job done. Not quite as dynamic second up, and takes on the older horses, so a couple of negatives, but the 1100m start generally does suit those near the pace.
6 Aimalac Millie (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Danielle Campbell trained mare that resumes here. This girl hasn’t raced since racing over 1200m on her home track at Grafton back in March when finishing close up behind Mishani Honcho. She’s a very good fresh horse and has run well in town before, so she can add value to exotics.
Race 5. (13:50) TAB Rewards Handicap (75) 1800m
I’m all over 2 So Splendid (Bet Now: $6.00) here. Was keen on her first up over 1500m here a fortnight back but in hindsight, it was wrong to be keen on her because she was first up against hard fit horses. Did a good job in the end to run third to La Chica Bella. Up to 1800m looks ideal for her, has upside…giving her another chance.
7 Regine (Bet Now: $10.00) looks to be going well for John O’Shea and in a thin race, deserves respect. She ran over 1900m at Canterbury last Wednesday where she was off the bit before the turn but picked up and was quite good late behind dominant winner Mutarakem. Hard fit and I think back to 1800m against her own sex is ideal.
11 I Am Awesome (Bet Now: $15.00) comes through the La Chica Bella race here two weeks ago. She was well backed late to win despite having Taree form next to her name but the tempo was against her and I’m happy to forgive her for the loss. Up to the nine furlongs should suit this girl, she has upside…just needs the pace to be a touch stronger.
Race 6. (14:25) Winter Cup 2400m
2 Sayed (Bet Now: $2.30) looks the obvious given he has upside, but gee he’s well found. Ran over 2000m here a fortnight back and looked home but was pipped near the peg by stablemate Black On Gold. Good record at 2400m, handles a wet track, gun kiwi apprentice on, upside…ticks alot of boxes. Just think he’s a touch short.Think he wins, but not diving in at the current odds?
6 Doukhan (Bet Now: $6.00) is a real one batter for Kris Lees who is three weeks between runs since contesting the two mile Stayers Cup at Randwick where he loomed large to win and hit the front for a few strides but Plot Twist kicked too hard and got the bob in right on the peg. Not sure about him back to 2400m, but hard fit and in form.
Why are we getting $7+ for 1 Destiny’s Kiss (Bet Now: $7.00)? The set up last time out in the Stayers Cup was awful, given it was two miles and he had to lump 61kg on a serious bog track. That recipe was never going to work. 2400m this time around looks more ideal and one thing we do know is that he’ll be strong at the end.
Race 7. (15:05) Civic Stakes 1350m
Happy to give 6 Mister Sea Wolf (Bet Now: $11.00) another chance. Was on him at the odds at Rosehill four weeks ago and he was one of many in the race to attack the line and be in that really bunched finish, with the race won by Sir Bacchus. That was his first run in over a month so I reckon there is upside to come, and his overall form since coming to Australia reads very well compared to most of these.
13 Flow (Bet Now: $4.80) does look a key threat. He had a think about it when resuming over 1400m here a fortnight back where he was gifted a rather soft lead and was out on his feet late but clung on to get the win. I like he’s back to 1350m and I reckon he’ll be much better when he has a bunny to chase. Has to be respected.
I reckon 12 Liapari (Bet Now: $51.00) is going well enough to be competitive, and if we get a genuine wet track, I think he comes right into play. He comes through the Sir Bacchus race at Rosehill four weeks ago where he got back and never looked likely but worked home okay late. He will be better over further, but if they go silly in front, he’s a knockout chance.
Race 8. (15:45) ATC Owners Benefit Card Handicap (79) 1500m
Happy to be with 2 Monasterio (Bet Now: $11.00). This bloke was unlucky a month back behind Volpe before backing up a week later on the bog over the Randwick mile and he just didn’t handle the wet track behind I Am Serious. Much better suited on firmer footing here and the extra week to recover looks ideal.
4 The Avenger (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Chris Waller trained gelding who scored a pretty good first up win at Canterbury before racing over 1300m here a fortnight back where had a suck run nearer the inside and was out in time but just lacked the turn of foot behind Manolo Blahniq. Third up at 1500m, he looks ready to go.
8 Cosmic Engine (Bet Now: $11.00) is a son of More Than Ready resuming for the Chris Waller team. He hasn’t raced since December 16 when finishing last over the Randwick mile behind Sedanzer. Has had a couple of trials leading in and has looked pretty good each time he has stepped out. Definite yard/market watch.
Race 9. (16:25) Sydney's West App Handicap (93) 1100m
15 Easy Eddie (Bet Now: $7.50) looks the forgotten horse for mine. I think you have to pen his run last Saturday at Randwick behind You Make Me Smile given the jock elected to cut back towards the inside, which at that stage of the day was quicksand and he really struggled to pick up. Tumbles in weight and Joe wouldn’t run him seven days later unless he’s come through it well.
13 Redouble (Bet Now: $6.50) looks the safe option in the get out. Bjorn Baker trains this galloper, who resumed at this track/distance a fortnight back and worked home pretty well late, clocking some good splits behind Albumin. Went like a bomb in a trial here on Monday and appears spot on for this assignment.
I think 2 His Majesty (Bet Now: $19.00) is a great chance here. Kim Waugh trains this almost white galloper, who is rising nine years of age. He hasn’t raced since Feb 2017 when finishing behind Le Romain in the Southern Cross. When he is right, he’s a very good horse and is a bomb when produced fresh. Trials leading in have been outstanding and he looks ready to go.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Two Number 4 Bocelli
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Sayed
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 6 Mister Sea Wolf
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: Field
Leg Two: 6, 10, 12, 13, 15
Leg Three: 2, 4, 8, 13
Leg Four: 2, 9, 13, 15
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
$100 Betting Strategy
$35 Win Bocelli at $3.1 (Ladbrokes)
$5 Win/$10 Place Asterius at $11/$3.2 (Sportsbet)
$25 Win Easy Eddie (Tote)
$25 Win Redouble at $6 (Crownbet)
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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