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The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday with an eight race card, headlined by the $150,000 Group lll Strickland Stakes (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (14:33) Crown Sports Bar Plate 1400m

Back Me

Purely on the weight pull factor, I’ll side with 1 Kelly’s Callisto (Bet Now: $2.80). He and Special Reward ran over 1300m here a fortnight back, with the latter proving far too classy, but he did look to get a soft run on speed and does have more brilliance than this bloke. This time around, Kelly’s Callisto gets a 4kg weight pull, better barrier and for mine, he’ll be stronger at the end of 1400m.

Danger

That’s not to say that 2 Special Reward (Bet Now: $1.50) can’t win because he can. He’s the only other winning hope. The debut win over 1200m was electric and produced something similar in the race mentioned above. 1400m, tricky gate and I highly doubt he’ll get a soft lead this time around, and you’ll more than likely be asked to take red figures.

Long Shot

3 Arnie’s Boy (Bet Now: $26.00) ran third in the race mentioned above and I thought his effort was more than encouraging. He did the work in the run outside the leader and tried hard but just lacked the class and brilliance. Different scenario this time around because he has the good draw to use and perhaps hold the lead.

Race 2. (15:13) Mumm Champagne Handicap 1000m

Back Me

I’d be surprised if 3 Street Fury (Bet Now: $3.80) got rolled here. Very promising filly for the Pearce team that is first up here after a pretty good Spring/Summer prep, which ended in the Magic Millions behind Epic Grey. She’s got the form on the board, along with class, and her recent trial, to the eye, was very good.

Danger

2 Danny George (Bet Now: $2.80) is a Brett Pope trained three year old who resumed without a trial when racing at this track/distance a fortnight back and despite that lack of fitness, gee he came with a really good finale to win narrowly but impressively. Lacks the class of the top tip, but does have the form on the board.

Long Shot

I think back to the five furlongs will suit 7 Monash (Bet Now: $35.00). Ran over 1200m here last Wednesday where he was on speed and gave a really good kick but just ran out of puff late when nabbed by Nashville Cat. He’ll be on speed again and back to this trip, he will be stronger at the end. Definite place chance.

Race 3. (15:53) Tabtouch Handicap 1400m

Back Me

3 Arrum Boy (Bet Now: $7.00) for me. A couple of these ran over 1200m here last Saturday, with the race won by Disruptive. Arrum Boy ran third and should have run second but just had no luck in the straight while the winner was off and gone for the prize. He will eat up 1400m here and with the cold sit off a fast pace, I think he’ll run a beauty.

Danger

2 Disruptive (Bet Now: $2.60) won the race mentioned above and was dominant in winning under Brodie Kirby. Controlled things beautifully from the front and gave nothing else a look in. More depth this time around and up to 1400m are the queries, but he’s racing so well at the moment. Just needs to tick the 1400m box to look the winner.

Long Shot

1 Superior Smile (Bet Now: $26.00) is a ripper for the Pearce team who is hard fit and in form. Ran over the Northam mile last Thursday against the older horses and despite a notable betting drift, I thought he was rather courageous in defeat behind an above average type in Battle Torque. Claim for Turner helps and back to 1400m no issue.

Race 4. (16:28) The Gate Bar & Bistro Leading Rider 2017/18 Handicap (1MW) 1300m

Back Me

6 Great Again (Bet Now: $3.90) the one to beat for me. Lindsey Smith trained gelding who was well backed when resuming at Pinjarra and aided by a lovely ride on speed from Glenn Smith, the gelding proved far too classy. He can be hit and miss at times but when he is on, he’s a very good horse. Happy to be with him.

Danger

3 Vital Silver is a talented type for the Pearce team who bolted up in the Provincial Final two back before doing too much work in the run three weeks back over 1300m here behind Sovereign Trade. Would like to see him get cover or a drag up into the race, because I think he’ll be more effective that way.

Long Shot

12 Vega Dior (Bet Now: $8.00) is the half sister to Vega Magic who won’t match the deeds of her older brother, but she’s showing some promise now. Last couple of runs have come at Northam, where she won the maiden two back before sitting wide no cover last time and fighting hard but was no match for Queen Bey. Good draw, should get a soft run.

Race 5. (17:05) WA Bookmakers Association Leading Apprentice 2017/18 Handicap (72+) 1300m

Back Me

2 Final Salute (Bet Now: $2.70) looks the good thing of the program for mine. Team Williams train this gelding, who resumed over 1400m here a fortnight back where he had three wide cover throughout and loomed large to win but just couldn’t finish it off when fourth to One Short. Blinkers on FT could be the final key to get him to win.

Danger

1 Max Almighty (Bet Now: $11.00) is racing in career best form at the moment for the Alan Matthews team who ran over 1200m here a fortnight back and hit the line with real purpose…problem is Enticing Star was in the race and she’s the most exciting horse in WA. Did a great job to run second. Just has to overcome the sticky gate to be a threat.

Long Shot

9 Seeker (Bet Now: $13.00) is on the quick back up after racing at this track/distance last Saturday where he started bolters odds and despite that, he savaged the line from near last in the run to finish second to the above average Tellem We’re Comin. Like he is on the quick back and should do no work from the gate.

Race 6. (17:40) Strickland Stakes 2000m

Back Me

1 Pounamu (Bet Now: $3.90) clearly for me. He just had no chance a fortnight back in the Hyperion because Great Shot had an absolute picnic and Pounamu couldn’t produce the sub 34 splits required. Up to 2000m looks ideal for him because he lacks the brilliance of Material Man, but he has the staying prowess.

Danger

2 Material Man (Bet Now: $1.50) also has staying prowess given he is the Perth Cup winner, and his win of the Hyperion was outstanding given he had to chase really hard to grab Great Shot and eventually did late. Interesting to see what happens from the draw. I think if they go back, Pounamu just wins. But if they go forward, it’ll make things hard for the Kingston Town winner.

Long Shot

3 Gatting (Bet Now: $7.00) is another that comes through the Hyperion and his effort was pretty good I thought because the mile was well short of his best trip and the tempo was quite slow but he stuck to the task. He’s getting out to an ideal trip and is gradually getting to peak fitness. Wouldn’t shock me if he won.

Race 7. (18:15) Inglis Bloodstock Leading Trainer 2017/18 Handicap (1MW) 1600m

Back Me

Would love him at 2000m, but despite that, I’m with 4 Red Army (Bet Now: $3.00). Ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and just got a mile out his ground and was off the bit around 600m out, but he somehow picked himself up and worked home strongly to run third. If the tempo isn’t that crazy this time around, he should take some beating.

Danger

7 Queen Bey (Bet Now: $7.00) is a daughter of Blackfriars for the Williams camp who had her resumption at Northam where Pike gave her three wide cover and once she popped into clear air, she lengthened rather nicely and won quite impressively. Up to the mile looks beneficial.Only reason she isn’t on top is because Pike elects Red Army.

Long Shot

14 Song Of Vincent (Bet Now: $3.40) looks to be racing quite well at the moment for the Sean Casey team who ran over this track/distance a fortnight ago against his own age where she sat off a good speed but despite the tempo being strong, he was keen and that burn just left him gassed at the end when third to Send My Love. If he relaxes, he can threaten.

Race 8. (18:50) Lavazza Handicap (72+) 1600m

Back Me

4 Fontainebleu (Bet Now: $9.50) for me in the get out. Lindsey Smith trains this quality mare, who resumed over 1400m here a fortnight back where she was run off her legs early and never really looked likely but her last 100m was quite good behind One Short. Very good second up record, draws better and up to the mile a big tick.

Danger

10 Tellem We’re Comin (Bet Now: $3.00) is on the quick back up for the Williams team after resuming over 1300m here last Saturday where Pike gave him such a sweet steer off the pace, tucking him in on the rail before poking his way through the field, bursting into clear air and finishing hard to win well. Interesting he backs up a week later, but has to be respected.

Long Shot

3 The Cruel Sea (Bet Now: $15.00) is having his first trip away from Kalgoorlie at start 42 which is a remarkable record really, but the way he is going at the moment, he deserves a crack at metro level. Ran over 1700m just under three weeks back on his home track and he absolutely bolted in. Doubt he wins, but he’s a tough bugger and will be strong at the end.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Final Salute

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Street Fury

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Fontainebleu

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3

Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 14

Leg Four: 3, 4, 10, 13

$50 Investment= 104.16% of the dividend if successful

 

$100 Betting Strategy

$100 All Up

Win Street Fury R2

Place Arrum Boy R3

Win Final Salute R5

Place Gatting R6

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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