A strong nine race program will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres from the 800m-400m; True for the remainder.
Race 1. (13:34) Westspeed Maiden 1000m
8 Tinto Belle (Bet Now: $5.50) for me. This isn’t the strongest maiden going around and the raced brigade look suspect so I’ll go with a first starter, who trialled last week at Lark Hill and liked the way she moved in the straight under pressure to run third. Draws a good gate and as I said, I don’t think the depth here is overly strong, so won’t need to be anything special to go close to winning.
1 Bruce Almighty (Bet Now: $3.30) was scratched from a maiden here on Wednesday in preference for this race. Neville Parnham trains this guy, who last ran at Northam last time where he tried hard and looked the winner for the most part but couldn’t quite get there when second to Cheval De Vega. Back to 1000m is a little concern, but this isn’t the strongest race.
5 Miss Quoted (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Graeme Ayres trained mare that was eight weeks between runs when racing down the Pinjarra straight last time out in a Class One and I thought she was solid enough in defeat when fourth to the well performed Smart Fox. Back to maiden grade and back to a bending track with room for improvement, I think she’s one of the key chances.
Race 2. (14:09) Tabtouch Better Your Plate Plate 1400m
Tricky race this but going the way of the Lindsey Smith trained 2 Apache Pass (Bet Now: $4.30) . He debuted over 1300m here last Wednesday where he got back to near last in the run and was behind runners in the straight, wanting to lay in, so Noske pulled the whip to the left hand, got clear air and loved the way he attacked the line to run second, and he was a length+ in front 50m after the line. He’ll eat up 1400m and this isn’t a strong race.
Really interesting runner is 4 Blackwater Bay (Bet Now: $2.30) , a son of Blackfriars for Adam Durrant that is on debut. Thought his recent Lark Hill trial was quite good to the eye but interesting to note Brodie Kirby rides the stablemate over this horse. Would he have got first pick or does the stable want Pike to ride what they think is the number one seed? Market will be the guide.
8 Rocky Path (Bet Now: $4.00) is one of the more experienced runners in the field but is still a maiden after six outings. She comes through the Kelvin race from two weeks ago over 1300m here where she tried hard near the speed but lacked the finale. Think she’s better ridden a touch more quietly, so if that eventuates, she should prove hard to hold out at the end.
Race 3. (14:49) Perth Racing Club Membership Handicap (70+) 1000m
3 Glasgow Girl (Bet Now: $2.10) is in really good form for the Lindsey Smith stable and confident she can measure up against these. Had three wide cover when racing at this track/distance three weeks ago under Pike and once she got clear air out wider, she always looked the winner and was too good for her rivals. Harder here but like the way she’s going.
What on earth happened to 1 Pym’s Royale? (Bet Now: $4.80) I thought he was a near good thing when racing here three weeks back, but the market went very cold on him late ($2.9-$4.6) and it was spot on as the horse got back, pulled hard in the run and found nothing in the straight when down the track behind Stageman. He’s better than that, so have to give him another chance.
2 Cognac (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Henny Hughes gelding for Paul Jordan that resumes. This five year old hasn’t raced since Australia Day at Ascot when a close up sixth behind a good one in Forceful. Been given a really good break and like the way he has trialled in readiness for his return. He has really good early speed when it’s used, and I think first up here. they might push the button early and make this a proper 1000m contest.
Race 4. (15:29) Walter Harmer 70th Birthday Handicap (64+) 2000m
8 Black Russian (Bet Now: $8.00) is a one on the up for Adam Durrant and in a thin race, I’ll go his way. He’s been impressive over the mile at his past couple, the latest being here when Pike was on and he was just far too impressive for them. Hardest test to date but like the way he’s going.
Third up from a break, 7 Dealing (Bet Now: $8.00) should just about be ready to show his best. He comes through the Zararite race from two weeks ago where he was held up for a few strides but looked to have his chance when fifth to the Williams runner. Needs to improve a fair bit off that I say, but he is only third up, so you’d like to think there is a fair amount of upside.
1 Noir De Rue (Bet Now: $8.50) is on the seven day back up for the Justin Warwick stable after racing over 2100m here last Saturday where he was off the speed throughout and tried hard but was a bit one paced when sixth to Mr Alby, beaten just under three lengths. He drops a little bit here in overall depth and is a tough animal, so the back up is no issue for mine.
Race 5. (16:09) Rosanna Smith 60th Birthday Handicap (1MW) 1600m
4 Four White Fox (Bet Now: $4.40) has been crying out for the mile this prep and he gets it here. Adam Durrant trains this gelding, who has had two runs back from a spell, both at Pinjarra. Just looked in need of the run first up over 1400m before stepping up to 1500m where he was held up for a few strides before getting clear air late and finishing strongly, Drawn out, so gets clear air this time and at the mile, he’s hard to beat.
6 Black Shadow (Bet Now: $5.00) had been on a little run of outs for the Jim Taylor stable but that all changed over 1400m at Pinjarra last Thursday when near the speed and kicking strongly when asked to get the win, narrowly but impressively. Little doubt on him at a strong mile, but if he finds the front and gets a cheap furlong or two, he’ll take some running down.
1 Sonnen (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Stephen Miller trained gelding that resumes. This bloke ended his prep in pretty good fashion, winning and placing in a further race at his last three outings. His best form will come at 2000m+, but his two trials leading in have been decent enough to the eye. He’ll get back, come off the bit before the turn but will be strong at the end.
Race 6. (16:48) Mrs Mac's Handicap (1MW) 1200m
Sharon Miller looks to have a smart animal in the shape of the four year old gelding 3 Uni Time (Bet Now: $2.60). He was confidently supported when resuming over this track/distance last Wednesday and the bets were landed as he dashed clear late when asked and made a mess of his rivals in an impressive return. Has to improve off that but no reason to suggest he won’t.
6 Lipstick Flickers (Bet Now: $2.40) is a Team Harvey trained mare that is three weeks between runs since racing over this track/distance where I thought McGruddy gave the mare every chance just off the speed but was bloused near the peg by Cryptic Love, who had the drop on those in front and ambushed late. Gets the claim for Kirby and again maps well.
5 Go Crying (Bet Now: $31.00) is a War Chant gelding for Steve Wolfe that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since March 7 on his home track at Albany where he sat last in the small field and did make ground late but was never really a winning threat. Interesting he resumes in town without a trial so must be pleasing the stable to warrant that sort of assignment first up.
Race 7. (17:25) Amelia Park Handicap (64+) 1400m
7 Festival Miss (Bet Now: $1.80) is looking as if she’ll be suited at 1400m so I’ll go her way. She ran over 1200m here last Saturday where she tried just off the speed but couldn’t quite get there and had to settle for a third to Free Trade. The depth there looked much stronger than what she faces here and Pike remains on. Think 1400m will be fine so I’m in her corner.
11 Pearl Trade (Bet Now: $11.00) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates for Alan Matthews but she’s consistent and rarely far away, which was the case two weeks ago when back and making up okay ground late in the piece behind Daishio. She’s not far off a win I don’t think but she’s sucked me in too many times to put my coin on her. Runs well but couldn’t back to win.
6 Friar’s Gift (Bet Now: $16.00) looks suited back a bit in depth. He ran over 1300m here four weeks ago where he was just off the speed throughout and tried hard but just lacked the class to finish it off behind Nikitas. Doesn’t look to be a horse of that quality here and he’s a horse who does tend to race well when produced with fresh legs, so certainly one to watch.
Race 8. (18:00) New Season Sprint 1000m
3 Profit Street (Bet Now: $4.50) is the interesting runner. The Giadresco stable trains this eight year old, who is very talented when right, as we saw during the Carnival last year, where he was four lengths off them in the Winterbottom, so the class/quality is there, he’s got an outstanding first up record, trialled well and Pike takes the ride, so plenty of ticks for him here.
I think the jury is somewhat out on just how well 1 Rebel King (Bet Now: $5.50) is going. Admittedly he contested two Stakes races to start his prep, but he was well beaten each time and for the most part prior in his career, he was competitive at that level. Freshened up, trialled well at Lark Hill…he wins if he brings his best, but been a fair while since has produced that.
Haven’t give up just yet on the Adam Durrant trained 8 How To Fly (Bet Now: $19.00). This mare was just plain in her first two runs back from a break, but I thought there was merit in her run two weeks ago at this track/distance when a close up fifth to Don’t Fuss, beaten just over two lengths. I think she’s working up to a win…wouldn’t be totally shocked if that win was here.
Race 9. (18:35) Crown Perth Handicap (76+) 1300m
Interesting that 11 Free Trade (Bet Now: $2.10) is on the seven day back up after scoring a huge win here last Saturday over 1200m, sitting wide throughout, with cover, and when headed, he looked as if he’d just whack away, but he surged late and came back to win. 1300m, off last run, looks like it will be okay for him and should land on speed rather comfortably.
3 Nikitas (Bet Now: $5.50) is three weeks between runs for Team Williams since racing over the mile here in a race where The Velvet King set a strong speed before veering to the centre of the track. Nikitas looked to hit the front for a few strides but a hard mile found him out late and had to settle for third. Like him back to 1300m. Just depends how well he’s recovered from that brutal contest.
Gary Cripsin has done a fab job in recent times with 4 Multiverse (Bet Now: $10.00). He’s got this bloke flying. He has an amazing record over 1200m here. Just needs to step it up to 1300m but no reason to suggest he won’t given he was strong to the line and through it when winning over 1200m here two weeks ago. If he handles the step up in trip, he’ll take some beating.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 Profit Street
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 11 Free Trade
LONG SHOT: Race One Number 8 Tinto Belle
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 5, 6, 7
Leg Two: 6, 7, 8, 11
Leg Three: 1, 3, 7, 8, 10
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 10, 11
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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