3/7/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill

Ten races will be run and won at Rosehill on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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I think a conservative steer will help the cause of 1 Tycoonist (Bet Now: $2.20). He let punters down two weeks ago here when attempting to lead throughout over 1300m. He did give a solid kick but was run down late by Papal Warrior, which isn’t something you would want high up on the CV but I think with cover, he’ll be more effective.

3 The Empire (Bet Now: $4.20) should run well here. Gary Portelli trained son of Not A Single Doubt that bolted up on his home track at Warwick Farm last time out. Lapped up the heavy conditions and he spanked them under Reece Jones. Harder here, but with similar conditions, he can measure up for sure.

8 Bazooka (Bet Now: $8.00) should appreciate a rise in trip for David Payne. Resumed over 1100m here two weeks ago where he got back in the run and while he wasn’t exactly a winning threat, I liked the way he finished his race off behind Magic Ruler. Fitter, up in trip, he appeals as a knockout chance.

15 Lady River (Bet Now: $9.50) is 2/2 this time in for Scott Singleton and has earned a crack at a Highway. This filly has produced the goods to win at the 1100m at Scone in impressive fashion. Clearly a harder assignment this time around but you have to like the way she is going about it.

I’ve always had time for 8 Melik (Bet Now: $8.50) so keen to see how he resumes for Paul Messara. Normally I steer clear of Messara runners in Highways given they generally are too short in the market and don’t fire, but I have been a fan of this horse since day one. Hasn’t raced since a down the track effort in a fast Highway at Randwick back in January when wide no cover. Trialled up well and has quality.

4 Anethole (Bet Now: $10.00) is hit and miss but his best is more than good enough to measure up here. Resumed in the Highway here a few weeks back won by Distillate and he was a real eye catcher from off the speed, closing off nicely. Has shown good talent previously. He can go on with it if he holds his form.

Bit of a throw at the stumps here in the shape of 13 Poulton Le Sands (Bet Now: $15.00) for the Allan Denham camp. I think she’s sneaky flying this girl and right down in the weights, she appeals. Closed off with purpose last time out on the Kenso track behind So Wicked. Did win fourth up last prep and with only 51kg on her back, I think she’ll be strong late.

2 No Compromise (Bet Now: $2.35) is a progressive stayer for Chris Waller that will love the step back up to 2400m. Was 2400m back to 2000m when racing here two weeks ago. The ride from J Mac won the race. He was on the hard fit stayer taking on Lackeen, who was several weeks between runs, and the fitness edge was the difference. He’s a nice horse heading places and can win again.

11 Sir Aglovale (Bet Now: $19.00) is heading in the right direction and could be a knockout chance here. Former Kiwi for Chris Waller that is slowly figuring out what the staying caper is about. He ran over 2400m at Warwick Farm on the Public Holiday meeting where he closed off pretty well between runners when a close up fourth to Brown Thomas. Not sure he wins, but one for the multiples.

4 Fastconi (Bet Now: $6.00) is a handy three year old for Chris Waller that should prove hard to beat. Ran over 1100m here two weeks ago in what was an on speed/fence dominated affair. He worked to the line pretty well but was never really a winning threat to surprise winner Magic Ruler. Hard to beat if he can sit closer in the run.

It’s clear that the key to 3 Magic Ruler (Bet Now: $8.00) is finding wet tracks, heavy tracks. Both career wins have come in town on heavy ground and each time he has been impressive, the latest coming here two weeks back. The rain forecast suggests the track will have genuine give, so he gets respect.

6 The Big Easy (Bet Now: $7.50) is a knockout chance for the Maher/Eustace team. Comes through the Curran race from few weeks back at Flemington where he got held up slightly between runners while those in front had full momentum and were off and gone. Like him in a fast run 1100m and should be strong late.

9 Our Bellagio Miss (Bet Now: $2.90) deserves another chance. Trialled up like a bomb prior to resuming at Randwick three weeks back when caught wide no cover in the run, was keen, and just felt the pinch late. She should take good improvement from that and is hard to beat in a race like this.

3 Switched (Bet Now: $4.80) is a proven Saturday performer who should prove hard to beat in a race like this. Brad Widdup mare that attempted to lead throughout at this track/distance last Saturday. Gave a solid kick but just felt the pinch late. Back to this level, she appeals.

7 Wander (Bet Now: $21.00) is a son of Lonhro for Richard Litt who resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since January 22 under the lights at Canterbury when excellent from the back behind Perigord. He tends to race well on the fresh side and his trials indicate he’s ready to go.

1 Grand Piano (Bet Now: $5.50) has found somewhere near his best and that is certainly good enough to take out a race like this. Was 1400m back to 1300m when racing at Randwick a few weeks ago and tried very hard. Just failed to get the win when second to New Arrangement. Back up to 1400m, he looks hard to beat.

5 New Arrangement (Bet Now: $9.00) is in for a good prep based on his excellent first up win at Randwick three weeks ago. Market liked him at a price and under Reece Jones, he finished best out wide to nab Grand Piano near the line. He is a second up winner and is yet to run a bad race here.

11 Ruby Tuesday (Bet Now: $8.00) rises a bit in grade/depth but she gets right down in the weights and potentially gets a soft run near the speed. Has been racing in Mares grade in recent times and has been far from disgraced. If she is able to land the box seat behind Canasta, she’ll run a positive race.

The believers were rewarded with 5 Papal Warrior (Bet Now: $5.00) two weeks ago. He had the suck run on the back of stablemate Tycoonist before edging off his back and finishing best late in a driving go. Now he has that winning feeling again, can he go on with it? Only time will tell, but I am thinking yes.

4 Le Chevalee (Bet Now: $3.90) is bursting to win a race for the Maher/Eustace camp and I think that can come here. Should have come three weeks ago at Randwick when completely luckless in the straight and wins with clear air instead of a luckless third to Seentoomany. Like her here.

8 Bethencourt (Bet Now: $12.00) has the engine under the hood to give this a shake. Comes here around a month between runs since sitting on speed at Warwick Farm and feeling the pinch late behind Jungle Book. Freshened up, tick over trial was a nice piece of work and he does have the talent to run well at this level.

The way this race is panning out, 6 Vitesse (Bet Now: $2.70) should get a very soft lead and with that, she’s the one to beat. Toughed it out best to win last time out on the Kenso track under J Mac. Loses nothing with Nash taking over and her wet track stats are appealing.

I want to give 11 Taksu (Bet Now: $4.40) another chance. First run for the Joe Pride camp came here a fortnight back when on speed but was under pressure before the turn and just whacked away behind Papal Warrior. I think he wants a firmer deck so the weather will be crucial to his chances and how strong they are.

One of the more fascinating runners on the program is 1 Cognac (Bet Now: $15.00), who returns as a gelding for Team Freedman. He might well be a donkey and finish tailed off last. His trials have been nothing to jump up and down about, but I keep coming back to his UK form. It just reads too well to ignore.

13 Wicklow (Bet Now: $1.90) looks the one to beat, but no good thing despite what it looks like on paper. Progressive three year old for the Waller camp that is unbeaten since arriving in Australia, winning 3/3 and each time getting better and better. Good test here, but I think he can win again.

I do get the feeling 7 Lackeen (Bet Now: $4.80) is having a go rather than turning it up. His last two starts, while it looks like he has turned it up, he has been beaten each time by a couple of very hard fit Waller gallopers. Back to 1800m should be okay for him and he is bursting to win a race.

9 Accountability (Bet Now: $16.00) has been hard in the market in 88 races previously so he appeals in a 78 off an encouraging return. That return came over 1500m here and he was good late nearer the inside behind stablemate Oscar Zulu. Two of his four career wins have come second up so the pattern is there to suggest he’s ready to fire.

Second up syndrome is the only knock with 9 Steel Diamond (Bet Now: $3.20). First run for Chris Waller came at Randwick a few weeks ago and I loved the way she kept finding under pressure, just missing out on picking up Gravina. Like her up to 1400m, fitter…second up off a near year break is the only concern.

Fitter and up to 1400m I do like for 12 Miss Einstein (Bet Now: $8.00). Bjorn Baker trained mare that resumed over 1300m here two weeks ago and closed off quite well nearer the inside when second to a tough filly, an in form filly, Expat. She’s a tease, but that resumption was encouraging enough to respect her.

3 Saigon (Bet Now: $10.00) should be suited up to 1400m for the Chris Waller camp. Was 1500m back to 1300m when racing here a fortnight back and I thought she was quite good from off the speed against the pattern when fourth to Expat. Like her back up in trip and she’ll be strong late.

BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Grand Piano

NEXT BEST: Race Ten Number 9 Steel Diamond

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 13 Poulton Le Sands

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 8

Leg Two: 1, 6, 11, 14

Leg Three: 1, 6, 7, 9, 13

Leg Four: 9

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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