3/7/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Belmont, Belmont Oaks day

A nine race card has been set down for Belmont this Saturday, headlined by the Belmont Oaks (2000m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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1 Speedy Miss (Bet Now: $3.50) should appreciate the rise to the mile. This mare ran over 1200m here last Saturday where she sat back in a sit/sprint and couldn’t dash over the top but was still good in defeat when third. Up to the mile, she will take a power of beating here against this lot.

2 Bollinger Boy (Bet Now: $3.40) is on the quick back up for Adam Durrant. Raced over 1700m here last Wednesday and worked to the line strongly from off the speed when second to Street Fair, clocking good late splits. Just back to the mile is the knock but I think he is on track for a win soon.

3 Brother Paddy (Bet Now: $13.00) deserves another chance. Impressive win here two back before racing over 1400m here two weeks ago when failing to fire behind I’m Pretty but was found to be lame post race. Off the win two back, he’s in here as a leading chance I’d suggest.

4 Nights Mystery (Bet Now: $5.00) for me in a tricky juvenile face. Mitch Pateman trains this youngster, that debuted at this track/distance where he attempted to lead throughout and he gave a really solid kick. Just felt the pinch and was nabbed late by Canny Jack. Better for the run under the belt and should be stronger at the end.

Not sure what to make of 2 Canny Jack (Bet Now: $6.50). Had a six week freshen up prior to racing at this track/distance where he had a suck run behind the speed before getting an inside split and under Pike, drove through and was impressive late in winning. If he runs up to that here, he can measure up.

7 Getyourmoneyandrun (Bet Now: $26.00) is a David Harrison trained youngster that is on debut. He has had a couple of trials to get ready for start one and hasn’t been too bad without jumping up and down. Interesting that the stable finds Harvey to steer first up so watch the market.

5 Dunbar (Bet Now: $2.90) gets the nod for me. Team Williams trained three year old that resumed over 1000m here two weeks ago when back off the speed and chasing strongly when second to Sunnysilk. Fitter and up to 1200m, he is the one to beat in my eyes.

10 Real Grace (Bet Now: $4.00) is the watch horse. Six weeks between runs since a very plain resumption here where she was a noted drifter in betting and failed to fire under Pike. The fact he chooses Dunbar over this girl might be a lead, but her best is more than good enough.

12 Wakan Tanka (Bet Now: $41.00) isn’t the most reliable horse going around in terms of greeting the judge first, but he is one I can entertain as a first four threat. Resumed here two weeks back when near the speed and battled on okay behind the very much in form I’m Pretty. He will put himself in an ideal spot…last bit will be his issue, but he can hold on for a first four spot.

1200m back to 1000m is normally a negative but with 3 Amasenus (Bet Now: $3.50), I do feel it’s a positive. She is a very talented sprinter that is proven at 1200m, and was a strong winner at the trip last start, but her best figures have come at 1000m, so a fast run 1000m looks a perfect recipe for her here.

8 Lipstick Flickers (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Team Harvey trained mare that resumes. This mare is first up, having not raced since Feb 13 when a string winner over 1200m at Ascot in a restricted race. Been given a good break, has trialled well leading in and interesting that stable finds Pike to steer fresh, so watch the market.

4 Miss Frost (Bet Now: $9.50) is certainly capable. Luke Fernie trained mare that resumed without a trial when racing over 1000m here several weeks back. Got caught wide no cover for the trip but fought on pretty well I thought when fifth to Nerodio. If she can get cover from the gate, she has brilliant change up speed to launch late.

6 Real Charisma (Bet Now: $4.80) is a very progressive filly for Team Williams and is heading in the right direction. Resumed over 1300m here last Wednesday where she sat off the speed before peeling into clear air. Took a while to get into her work but class came to the fore and she was too good. Fitter and upside, she’s the one to beat.

1 Timely Outburst (Bet Now: $1.70) is an absolute beauty for Stephen Miller that puts herself near the speed and gives her all. That was the case when she won here two weeks ago. She had a great battle with Vane Tempest. Fitter and up to 1400m, she rates highly against this.

4 Captain Burglar (Bet Now: $27.00) is back to his own age and can be dangerous. Ran against the older horses here last Saturday where he was wide with cover and was there to threaten. Just couldn’t finish it off. Back to his own age, I think at his best, he can be dangerous.

7 Comfort Me (Bet Now: $2.50) is flying and confident he can continue his winning ways. He has won his past two, each coming at this track/distance. Latest win came two weeks ago where he had a suck run behind the speed before producing a lovely turn of foot and putting the race to bed. Tricky draw, but hard to knock the way he’s going.

1400m is the query with 3 Excellent Dream (Bet Now: $6.00) but I think he will be okay at it. He was brave in defeat here last time out after sitting wide no cover. He stuck on well I thought given the hard run. If he gets luck from the tricky gate, I think he will be around the mark.

4 The Big Show (Bet Now: $35.00) is a handy galloper for the McAuliffe camp that resumes. This is fresh, having not raced since the Autumn Cup at Bunbury when finishing down the track after doing a stack of work in the run. He can sprint well fresh and has trialled well leading in.

Looks a race in two. I’m leaning towards 4 Baronova (Bet Now: $6.00). Justin Warwick trained filly who comes here off the back of a strong win over this trip when beating the older horses in a Class Three. She’s had the strong grounding. Only query being if this becomes a sit/sprint.

1 Sheza Chalmer (Bet Now: $1.60) has the runs on the board given she is the last start Belmont Guineas winner. She sat back off the speed before peeling wider and she was very strong late in putting them away. She’s racing like 2000m suits and does bring the brilliance factor.

3 Chili Is Hot (Bet Now: $20.00) is racing like the 2000m will suit. This filly comes through the Belmont Guineas where she got back, wide with cover, and tried hard. Jugs failed to go on with it late. Tricky draw to overcome, but should appreciate 2000m and is a knockout chance.

4 Tradem In (Bet Now: $8.00) is a nice three year old for Team Harvey that should love the rise to 2000m. Strong win over 1700m here last time out. Sat back, wide with cover, before peeling wider and despite wanting to lay in under pressure and was too good. Off that, 2000m here should be fine and he rates highly in a winnable race.

3 Crescent City (Bet Now: $2.80) is a progressive Team Williams trained son of Fiorente who has put together two on the bounce, the latest coming here last Saturday when given a 12/10 by Pike, driving through nearer the inside and winning. On breeding, he will eat up 2000m and is in the right camp.

2 Albukthuri (Bet Now: $35.00) is the interesting one. Formerly with the Hayes/Dabernig camp, he has had a few runs now for the Gangemi Team and is racing like he will appreciate the 2000m. Comes through the Belmont Guineas where he got back and made ground without threatening. His best is certainly good enough to be around the mark.

8 Kallaroo (Bet Now: $9.50) is racing like he will love the rise in trip. Dan Morton trained three year old that raced over 1400m here last time out and worked to the line pretty well I thought. Three year olds this time of year against older horses do perform well and he is a likely type.

2 I’m Pretty (Bet Now: $2.70) has to stretch her brilliance to the mile but Adam Durrant has her flying this time in, winning 2/2. Latest win came over 1400m here where she was given a peach by Pike and wore them down in good style. She’s racing like she will appreciate the mile and has upside, plus is in form.

7 Zero Demerits (Bet Now: $31.00) has an excellent third up record and I would say that is his saving grace. Wasn’t too bad fresh behind Chantorque before going to the Comfort Me race from two weeks ago here and was quite plain. Outstanding third up record and that can see him bounce back at odds.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Amasenus

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Baronova

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 8 Kallaroo

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 7, 8

Leg Two: 1, 4

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7

Leg Four: 2, 7, 8, 9

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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