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The Warrnambool Carnival concludes on Thursday with the two premier events, the Warrnambool Cup (2350m) and the Grand Annual (5500m). The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out four metres from the 1300m-300m; True for the remainder.

Race 1. (11:15) Champion Novice Hurdle 3200m

Back Me

4 Exalted Kanga (Bet Now: $8.00) has really turned the corner for Grant Young since turning to jumps. Great ride from Kayla Crowther to win two back at Murray Bridge before going over the jumps at Gawler when leading throughout and absolutely bolting in under Martin Kelly. He’ll be on speed and giving a great sight.

Danger

2 Duke Of Boneo (Bet Now: $1.60) is a Darren Weir trained gelding who was a notable drifter in betting when contesting a jumps race at Hamilton last time out at this trip but he defied the market fluc and bolted in, admittedly up against much inferior opposition to what he faces here, but he’s in the right stable and has upside.

Long Shot

3 Getting Leggie (Bet Now: $3.55) is a Nick Smart trained jumper who has been in ripping form this time in, both on the flat and over the jumps. Ran second to Duke Of Boneo in that race mentioned above where he attempted to lead all the way but just didn’t nail the last couple of jumps whereas the Weir horse did. Small field helps.

Race 2. (11:45) No Fuss Event Hire 2YO Handicap 1200m

Back Me

6 Mumbles (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Daniel Bowman trained gelding who finished down the track behind Long Leaf in the Merson Cooper in the Spring before being tipped out. Resumed at Terang and finished off quite well I thought behind Esthetic. He will appreciate the rise to 1200m and is on his home track now.

Danger

9 Tee Train (Bet Now: $3.70) is a Symon Wilde trained galloper on debut and there has already been good market support which is always to be respected. Savabeel colt who hasn’t trialled publicly for this, but is drawn the right part of the track and finds Williams aboard, which is always a positive lead for mine despite his recent run of outs.

Long Shot

2 Anamovo (Bet Now: $21.00) is a son of Anacheeva on debut for the John McArdle team. This bloke has had had the benefit of a trial at Cranbourne, which came last Monday over 800m where he looked to go about his business quite nicely I thought when running fourth. Stable always should be respected when they saddle up a first starter.

Race 3. (12:15) Schweppes Handicap (78) 1400m

Back Me

4 Rising Hope (Bet Now: $4.90) looks a leading contender. Darren Weir trains this mare, who comes back in trip after bolting up over the mile at Morphettville where she found a thin race and bolted up under Dean Yendall. Back to 1400m is the concern, but she’s hard fit, in form and will be charging at them late.

Danger

Back to this grade, 6 Summer Glen (Bet Now: $1.80) should take some beating. Contested the VOBIS Gold Distaff last time out at Caulfield and just did a bit too much work in the run behind French Emotion. Testing 1400m this will be, so that’s the query, but Daniel Moor is riding in fab form and she should get a soft lead.

Long Shot

2 Save Me Ned (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Michael O’Leary trained mare who looks primed to run well. Resumed over 1100m at Penola where they walked in front, so she really had no chance given she was near last in the run but she made up good ground late and hit the line with the purpose, suggesting that 1400m is ideal, and Linda Meech rides the O’Leary horses very well.

Race 4. (12:45) Ludeman Real Estate Handicap (64) 2000m

Back Me

3 Hang Man (Bet Now: $2.20) on top. Michael Moroney trains this four year old, who comes here off the back of an absolute spank job at the Bool when winning by an ever widening five lengths. Admittedly, running away from Sunquest isn’t a tough ask, but you have to trust what you see and he looks very likeable.

Danger

7 Moss ‘N’ Bolt (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Peter Gelagotis trained gelding who comes here off a last start second over 2000m on his home track when nabbed late promising three year old So You Leica. Bred to handle a track with give in it, which will help the cause, and stable don’t come to the Bool for a trip away.

Long Shot

10 Hollow Log (Bet Now: $51.00) was completely unwanted in betting when resuming on Terang Cup Day over the mile but I thought his effort from the back was very good, especially considering making significant ground on that bottomless surface was proving difficult. Big tick for mine, behind Henpecker. Better suited over jumps, but can’t ignore that resumption.

Race 5. (13:15) The Standard Handicap (78) 1100m

Back Me

7 Highland Beat (Bet Now: $8.00) on top for me. He’s just better than them on form but will need luck from the draw. Excellent run here a fortnight back when chasing the impressive winner King River. Been a long time since he has raced against this class of horse, and with luck in running, gee I think he’ll take a power of beating.

Danger

Very wary of 8 He’s A Moral (Bet Now: $16.00). Darren Weir trained four winners during this carnival last year first up and this bloke looks an ideal candidate. Hasn’t raced since Magic Millions Day on the Gold Coast in the Country Cup when a closing fourth to Zafina. Goes very well first up and I like him fresh at 1100m.

Long Shot

17 Artie Dee Two (Bet Now: $8.50) is a huge watch here. Very talented four year old that resumes for Darren Weir. We haven’t seen this horse race since May last year when finishing down the track at Caulfield. Three runs back he beat home Ken’s Dream, who has been Group l competitive. Market will tell you how well he is going.

Race 6. (13:50) Neville Wilson Series Final 1700m

Back Me

17 Furrion (Bet Now: $1.50) should put this field away. 2/2 for Darren Weir and has showed really good promise at each outing. Came with a well timed run to win on debut at Stawell before going to Ballarat where he took on some talented types yet made them look second rate when bolting up. Very exciting prospect and 1700m here no issue.

Danger

2 He’s The Boss (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained gelding who was an alarming drifter in betting last time out at Wangaratta but nobody told the horse that as he kept finding under hard riding from Stackhouse to get a well deserved win. He has shown great talent throughout his career. Now he has won again, his confidence should be up.

Long Shot

10 Henpecker (Bet Now: $23.00) is a mare trained by Ciaron Maher who got an absolute peach of a ride from Linda Meech to win first up on Terang Cup Day. Punters knew what they were doing, backing her into $6 after as much as $15 was on offer and the ride won the race, saving ground and finishing best to score. Should only improve off that and has a tidy second up record.

Race 7. (14:30) Grand Annual Steeplechase 5500m

Back Me

I think the Waterhouse/Bott bone and muscle will make its presence known here via 7 Valediction (Bet Now: $18.00). This bloke was nominated a couple of times for this Carnival but their target is this race and they have fresh legs after dodging the Brierly. Trial here last Tuesday was very good, he’ll be out of trouble on speed and we know that if left alone, these runners are impossible to run down.

Danger

1 Zed Em (Bet Now: $3.40) is the form jumper of the field. He ran in the Brierly on Tuesday where he lumped the 70kg and looked the winner for the most part but was nabbed late by Gold Medals. There is a query at the 5500m, but he was dominant at 4950m in the Great Eastern at Oakbank. Definite threat.

Long Shot

6 Now And Zen (Bet Now: $8.50) is the fascinating runner. He was solid in betting in the Brierly on Tuesday but dumped Johnny Allen at the first jump. The trial win here last Tuesday was too good to ignore and there was a bit of confidence on track that he would run well. I think you have to take him on trust.

Race 8. (15:15) Mercedes Benz Handicap 1400m

Back Me

11 Mr Wonderful (Bet Now: $18.00) on top for me. Peter Gelagotis trains this bloke, who is first up here. His Winter/Spring prep was pretty good, and while he didn’t win, he was far from disgraced in quality races. Trialled up very well last Monday Cranbourne behind Wise Hero and he can pull out a decent run fresh.

Danger

6 Artie’s Shore (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Matty Williams trained gelding who resumed on Terang Cup Day where he was unwanted in betting where he got a fair way back in the run and closed off quite well late in the piece when second to Inn Keeper. Very good second up records and saves his best for the Bool. Very likeable.

Long Shot

7 My True Love (Bet Now: $6.50) is the watch horse. Waterhouse/Bott train this mare,and this stable has been flying recently in Melbourne, probably with the exception of this mare, who was dreadful first up in the Distaff at Caulfield behind French Emotion. Her trials leading in had been ordinary but she’s too good of a mare to dismiss…yet.

Race 9. (15:55) Warrnambool Cup 2350m

Back Me

3 Kiwia (Bet Now: $2.45) should be winning this. It was a nightmare watch in the Gold Heath at Caulfield. Victim of circumstances was Rawiller on the four year old. Just got into a nasty spot and fellow riders made sure he stayed there. Up to 2400m looks perfect and he did bolt up in his lone run here. Very keen on this bloke.

Danger

8 Swacadelic (Bet Now: $8.00) has to go in. He was a dominant winner of the Terang Cup and the 1.75L margin really flattered his rivals because had the track been firmer, he probably wins by double or triple that. He was bolting but didn’t let down like normal due to the surface. Firmer footing this time around and will get to the best part of the track.

Long Shot

Think 9 Golden Mane (Bet Now: $19.00) finds a lovely race to get some confidence back in the system. He has been racing really well at Caulfield in recent times, not being far away but at the same time hasn’t greeted the judge. In saying that, those races have carried far more depth than what he faces this time around. Looks a major threat.

Race 10. (16:30) Scania Australia Handicap (64) 1300m

Back Me

Keen on 6 Fifty Stars (Bet Now: $2.00) for Darren Weir. This Sea The Stars colt hasn’t raced since scoring a fab debut win over 1200m here back on March 29 when showing an electric turn of foot under Brad Rawiller to win, beating Seized, who has franked the form. 1300m no issue, been kept on ice for this…It’ll take a good one to beat him.

Danger

9 Lagerfeldย (Bet Now: $7.50) looks a live threat. Spanked them to break the maiden status two back at Bairnsdale before going to Sale where he looked to have every chance but was beaten by an above average type in Eagle Ridge. Been kept on ice since with this Carnival in mind, and the wide gate, especially last race of the Carnival, should be a blessing.

Long Shot

4 Aurelius Hero (Bet Now: $34.00) isn’t the most reliable galloper going around but I think he can add some value to exotics. He ran last week at Bendigo where he got a mile back in the run in a race dominated by those near the speed, and right out wide, where he was, it was hard to make ground. Has run well here before and don’t be surprised if he pulls out a decent run.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 3 Kiwia

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 17 Furrion

VALUE: Race Eight Number 11 Mr Wonderful

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 7

Leg Two: 6, 7, 11, 13

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 9, 10

$50 Investment= % of the dividend if successful

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