3/3/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Doomben, Tattersall’s Members Cup day

A monster eleven race card has been assembled for Doomben this Saturday. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

If 1 Slow Pace (Bet Now: $10.00) can’t perform here, he can’t perform well elsewhere ever again. Without doubt the easiest race he has contested throughout his career. Two runs back have been poor, but they have been in the Summer Cup and Gosford Cup. Looks thrown in after the claim, and anywhere near right, he wins.

4 Exoteric (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Chris Waller trained stayer who was a strong first up winner over 1800m at the Gold Coast before racing at this track/distance on the bog four weeks back and working home okay but never looked likely on the ground behind Perilous Love. Much better horse on top of the ground so hopefully he gets conditions to suit here.

2 Morendi (Bet Now: $5.50) is a beauty for the Darren Graham team. He ran over 2200m here a three weeks back and I thought it was a really good ride from Michael Cahill. He sat back off the reasonable tempo and had last say on those in front, who went far too keen on speed. Back to the 2040m is of some concern, but he’s the class factor.

9 Quiero (Bet Now: $10.00) on top in a pretty thin race. This bloke is two for two this time in for the Tony Sears stable, the latest coming over the mile on his home track at Toowoomba when leading all the way as an odds on pop. I like horses who are rising in trip who have speed in the legs, which this horse has. He’ll be on speed and giving a great sight.

13 Pinch Passion (Bet Now: $3.00) ran a beauty at the Sunny Coast two back before going to that race won by Epic Rant where I thought he was most disappointing given he did run well prior. Never really looked likely this day. He is a real enigma that can turn it up at times, but on his best form, he’s certainly good enough.

11 Godzone Girl (Bet Now: $10.00) is a bit of an enigma but on her day she’s certainly capable of beating these. Hasn’t raced for a month since racing over the 1800m on a bottomless Gold Coast surface when sitting near the speed and dropping out to run last behind Silom Road. Unknown at the trip, but should get a soft run and much better on firmer footing.

7 I’ve Gotta Nel (Bet Now: $2.00) looks the safe play. Toby Edmonds trains this gelding, who attempted to lead all the way over 1200m here a fortnight back but was no match late for Publishing Power. I think back to 1110m suits, looks the leader and gets the claim for leading Sydney apprentice Jean Van Overmiere.

9 Hidden Light (Bet Now: $46.00) is a Bruce Hill trained mare who has come back in career best form. Confidently backed when racing over 900m on a bog on her home track at the Gold Coast and she lapped up the conditions under Jackson Murphy, winning impressively. Just has to stretch it to 1110m but confident she can.

1 My Little Flicka (Bet Now: $27.00) is a handy mare that resumes for the Les Ross team. She only had the one run last prep, which came in December at this track/distance when down the track behind Just Orm, and we know how well that form reads now. Trialled up very nicely, sprints well fresh and draws the paint.

5 Plumaro (Bet Now: $2.60) should be winning. She did an enormous job here three weeks back. Never looked likely. Was scrubbed along throughout, spotted them a huge start yet rattled home and only went down 3/4. A hard run 1200m looks absolutely ideal and the blinkers come off now. Happy to be in her corner.

2 Boomsara (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Chris Munce trained gelding who had very confident market support when debuting over the 900m at the Gold Coast last Wednesday and the bets were landed as he won quite impressively and showed a lovely turn of foot in the process. Wandered late but was always in control. Up to 1200m immediately is an ask, but he looks talented.

11 Miss Sara (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Les Ross trained filly who was hard in the market when resuming at the Sunny Coast where she had a nice run off pace and tried hard but had to settle for third to Erringhi Spring. She is one who will appreciate a hard 1200m and now she has the run under the belt after the resumption.

7 Jadentom (Bet Now: $2.30) is an absolute beauty for the Lindsay Hatch team. This mare scored a sharp win over 1200m here three weeks back before backing up seven days later at this track/distance where she led everywhere bar the last metre when nabbed by Fortensky. Now she has the hard 1350m run under the belt, she should be better off.

8 Sea The Sparkle (Bet Now: $7.50) is a talented mare for the Chris Meagher team who made her Queensland debut over this track/distance three weeks back and I really liked the way she closed off from the late, flashing home to run a close up third to Cornrow, beaten two lengths, running very good late splits relative to the day. Can only see upside, so she rates highly.

10 Dream Kisses (Bet Now: $15.00) is a beauty for the Steve O’Dea team. Doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates but she always tries hard and rarely races without picking up prizemoney. Four weeks between runs since racing on the bog at this track/distance where she battled away strongly behind Susurri. Has go to in the numbers.

4 Capetown Hussey (Bet Now: $3.40) on top in a really tough race to sort out with confidence. Steve O’Dea trains this mare, who resumed over the 1350m here three weeks back and made up really good ground late behind dominant winner Old North. Up to the mile looks ideal, has a stack of upside and give in the track certainly no disadvantage.

2 Brazen Moss (Bet Now: $5.50) had been knocking on the door to win a race for Tony Gollan this prep and he got the win on the board in impressive fashion a fortnight back at this track/distance when sitting off the pace before Jim Byrne presented him clear air on the turn, had the momentum and just lasted. Confident he can go on with it.

9 Bodega Negra (Bet Now: $31.00) had done nothing for a long but his last couple of runs have been quite pleasing. Led and fought hard two back at Ipswich behind Torgersen before racing in the Brazen Moss race where he again attempted to lead all the way and kicked on strongly to run a close up fourth. Doubt he wins, but a must for exotics.

7 Amenzel (Bet Now: $4.80) for me, just. This bloke is in a real purple patch at the moment for the Les Kelly team, winning his past three, all of which have been over 1200m on his home track at the Gold Coast. I guess that is the query. Can he do it away from his home track and at Doomben? I’ll trust the stable to have him right.

4 Break Time (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Ben Currie trained gelding who was heavily backed when resuming over 1000m on his home track at Toowoomba and despite a few nervous moments in the run, you were pretty comfortable in the end as he got the job done before repeating the dose last Saturday. Unbeaten since arriving from Victoria and though he faces his toughest challenge to date, I’d be surprised if he didn’t measure up.

1 Craiglea Deken (Bet Now: $41.00) is an absolute ripper for the Krystle Johnston team. Very rare you’ll see him run a bad race and due to his rating, he is normally asked to carry big weights, like he does here. Not really a first up performer, though placed two from four, but I think no trials and 1200m fresh tells me there is intent to run well.

If he can stretch his brilliance to 1200m, 9 Mr Marbellouz (Bet Now: $1.40) wins. Very exciting prospect for the Kevin Kemp team who ran over 1050m here three weeks ago and he absolutely spanked his rivals, winning by seven lengths and smashing the clock in the process. Just needs to tick the 1200m box to win.

14 Final Zero (Bet Now: $6.00) is a quality mare that resumes for the Michael Lakey team. She has been given a really good break since racing in September at this track/distance when bolting up after getting a soft time of it on speed. Has looked quite sharp in a couple of trials leading in and does sprint well fresh.

4 Rock Spur (Bet Now: $26.00) is another North Queensland raider coming to town, this one trained by Samantha Molino. Ran over 1200m at Townsville last time out and loved the way he finished his race to nab them and grab the win in the shadows. Has to improve a fair bit, but I think he deserves a crack in town.

Can see them going mad in front here, setting it up for a swooper, and I reckon 12 Raido (Bet Now: $13.00) might be that swooper. Good second over 1200m at the Gold Coast behind Mighty Like two back before being given a freshen up and racing in the Malvern Estate race here a fortnight ago over the 1110m where he loomed large to charge and win but just blew out late. Should come on from that and up to 1200m is ideal.

6 Malvern Estate (Bet Now: $4.00) is absolutely flying at the moment for Desleigh Forster team. He is four for four this time in, his latest win coming a fortnight back over 1110m here where he got back off the pace but got the split at the right time and finished best. Hardest test to date, but I think he can handle it.

4 Sir Statham (Bet Now: $26.00) is a very interesting runner here. Quality kiwi who is having his second prep in Australia for Kelly Doughty. He had a three run Winter Carnival prep last year where his best effort came first up over the 1050m here behind The Virginian. Does go well fresh and there looks to be intent to run a good one first up.

Not surprised there has been market support for the one down the bottom, 18 Karakabeel (Bet Now: $6.00), a handy stayer who resumes for the Tony Gollan camp. This bloke hasn’t raced since December 9 over 2000m here when finishing behind Singing, who went on to win a couple of Cups in NSW, so that form reads very well, and he has trialled up nicely.

9 Bergerac (Bet Now: $4.20) is a very promising galloper for the Steve Tregea team who is two for two this time in. Both wins have come at the Sunny Coast, the latest coming a couple of Sundays back where he was wide no cover throughout yet he kept finding under Larry Cassidy and surged hard to get the win. Back to 1350m probably not ideal but loaded with talent.

10 Counter Meal (Bet Now: $16.00) is a veteran for the Paul Butterworth team whose best years are probably behind him but he still retains a healthy level of zest for racing. Ran behind Bergerac in the Sunny Coast race mentioned above where he closed off okay but never looked likely. Giving him respect from the soft draw.

2 Setoga (Bet Now: $3.10) on top. Steve O’Dea trains this promising three year old gelding, who was a notable drifter in betting when resuming over the 1050m here on the bog a fortnight back but he seemed to absolutely lap it up and showed a lovely turn of foot in the process. No qualms up to 1110m and his turn of foot should come to the fore.

7 Basara (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Nicconi filly for the Tony Sears team who was easy in betting three weeks back over 1200m here and while she didn’t win, I thought she ran really well behind a real up and comer in Snitz. I reckon 1200m sees her out, so back to 1110m is a big tick and she has the right form around her.

8 Grey Missile (Bet Now: $26.00) is the x factor. North Queensland three year old for the Roy Chillemi team who has won both starts this time in. Looked in all sorts last time out over the 950m on a bottomless Cairns surface but once he picked up, he put them away rather comfortably. Toughest test to date, but he deserves a crack.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 9 Mr Marbellouz

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 5 Plumaro

VALUE: Race Nine Number 12 Raido

Quaddie Tips (Races Eight Through To Eleven):

Leg One: 9

Leg Two: 4, 6, 8, 12

Leg Three: 9, 10, 17, 18

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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