3/3/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Challenge Stakes day

An eight race program has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

2 Assetro (Bet Now: $1.95) clearly on top for me. Adam Durrant trains this filly, who scored an electrifying debut win here on New Years Day before being freshened up. Ran here a fortnight back and was unlucky not to win, getting badly held up late when third to Saetta. Back to 1100m is a concern, but should get cover from the draw and Pike is on.

1 Party Night (Bet Now: $7.50) is on the seven day back up for the in form Paul Jordan camp after racing over 1000m here last Saturday where he sat on speed under Craig Staples and despite being challenged, gee she found plenty and on the line was just edging away. 1100m sees her out, but she should be leading and giving a sight.

8 Fairedu (Bet Now: $11.00) is a daughter of Dawn Approach on debut for the Harvey camp. She has looked the part in a couple of trials this time in, the latest seeing her win earlier in the week at Belmont over 400m. Hard to get a read on the 400m trials because they are 400m trials, but from what I saw, she went nicely enough, and does draw the paint.

If you back 5 Saturia (Bet Now: $5.50) each way, you should be collecting. She is an absolute beauty for the Paul Jordan stable who puts herself on speed and makes her own luck, a lovely racing pattern to have. Ran over 1000m here a fortnight back where she did exactly that and fought on well when third to How To Fly. Gets a 4.5kg weight pull and maps super.

1 Salubrious (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t done much for a little while now but mind you this is the easiest race he has contested in some time. Last raced on January 6 down the straight at Pinjarra when racing like a tired horse behind Saturia. Actually meets Saturia 2kg worse off, which seems odd, but back around a bend and fresh, expecting him to run well.

2 Wacked Out (Bet Now: $10.00) is three weeks between runs for the Neville Parnham team after attempting to lead all the way in the Pinjarra 3YO Magic Millions and to his credit, he gave a really good kick, but just didn’t quite finish it off when third to Epic Grey. Looks to get a lovely run from the gate and back to 1100m a big tick.

8 My Grace (Bet Now: $2.80) is becoming a bit costly to follow, but she looks to really get her chance here. She ran over the mile here a fortnight back where I thought Johnston-Porter gave the mare every chance but was just no match for Western Temple, who had the momentum. Pike on, good draw, down in the weights…last chance.

5 Cougar Nights (Bet Now: $4.50) has come back in outstanding order for Michael Lane. He seems to be trained this prep to have speed in the legs and it appears to be working. Resumed with a barnstorming win over 1300m at Pinjarra before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago and producing some outstanding splits late behind Oliver’s Travels. He’ll run a beauty again.

1 Corporate Larrikin (Bet Now: $17.00) is a veteran for the Angela Smith team but this is the sort of race he could easily bob up in. On the quick back up after racing over 1200m here last Saturday where he did a bit of work on speed to lead and just tired late behind Star Glitter. Up to 1400m looks ideal, should lead and give a sight.

4 Sandalwood (Bet Now: $2.35) looks one of the better bets on the card. This bloke is low flying at the moment for the Fred Kersley team. Ran over 2000m at Pinjarra three weeks back where he got back off the pace before Lucy gave him clear and despite doing plenty wrong in the straight, he won with ease. That looks the A1 form for this and I can only see upside with him.

3 At The Ready (Bet Now: $2.70) was a strong winner over 2100m here before stepping back to 2000m at Pinjarra in the race mentioned above. Thought Pike gave the Adam Durrant trained stayer every chance to run Sandalwood down but just no match. Think something similar will happen but he will be suited up to 2200m.

Will be some training effort if Justin Warwick can get 7 Dudemanbro (Bet Now: $23.00) to win first up at 2200m. This bloke hasn’t raced since New Years Day at this track/distance when sitting on speed and tiring late when fifth to Rock Giselle. Form out of the race is suspect, but recent trial win at Pinjarra was very good and is a first up winner.

7 Private Dancer (Bet Now: $3.00) for me. Trevor Andrews trains this filly, who resumed a fortnight back over 1400m here where she was hard in the market and after a nice sit just off the pace, she let down with a powerful finishing burst to win. Has always shown promise throughout her career, and hopefully she can go on with it.

8 Showcase (Bet Now: $2.80) is on the seven day back up for the Williams camp after racing over 1200m here last Saturday where Parnham had the filly in the box seat. For a few strides it looked as if it would be an absolute nightmare, but once she got clear air, gee she produced a lovely turn of foot and won with ease. Up to 1500m the query, but has upside and in the right yard.

1 Paradise Square (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Planet Five gelding who is racing in a real purple patch at the moment for the Pearce yard. He has won his past two outings, the latest coming on Valentines Day over the 1400m here when taking on the older horses and finishing best after getting good cover off the pace. Hard to knock the way he is going and 1500m no issue.

4 Jeraft (Bet Now: $3.60) looks the safe option. Looks a promising type for the Neville Parnham team who is going through his grades quite nicely. He ran over 1400m her a fortnight back in a similar race where Parnham had the gelding off the pace before peeling out on the turn and though taking a stride or two to wind up, he won pretty comfortably in the end, suggesting 1500m is no issue.

2 Golgotha (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Team Pearce trained gelding who was confidently backed when resuming over 1500m at Pinjarra a tick over two weeks back where he got good three wide cover in the run before peeling clear and finishing off best to score. Might need a similar run from the gate in order to win, but he does have a sharp second up record.

6 Hay Magic (Bet Now: $23.00) could be an improver here at huge odds. This mare resumed over 1400m here on Valentines Day where she got well back in a slowly run affair and really had no right to finish as close as she did when a couple of lengths off Paradise Square. Hopefully can sit closer in the run from the soft draw.

Tricky race but just siding with the Simon Miller trained mare 3 Blackline (Bet Now: $2.45). She is first up since racing over the mile at Pinjarra on January 6 when copping a bit of pressure in front and just feeling the pinch late when fifth to Missile Launch. She is a dynamite fresh horse and I think she is best when sticking to sprints.

2 Belter (Bet Now: $5.50) can definitely win this, but he just races way too keen in the run so his racing manners will be vital here. He ran over 1400m here a fortnight back when pulling his head off despite a fast pace and tired late when fifth to Jeraft. Hopefully back to 1100m, the tempo should help him relax, and he gets the claim.

5 Vandemonian (Bet Now: $11.00) is five weeks between runs for the Gangemi team since racing at this track/distance when sitting back with cover before peeling out and winding up with purpose late to run a close up third to Dutch Spy. He is a good fresh horse and again, he should get three wide cover and launch late.

This race is all about 7 Floyd (Bet Now: $2.60). If he is anywhere near right, he should bolt in. If not, it’s a lottery. I’ll be banking on the stable having him somewhere near right. He put together a couple of electric wins on the bounce before failing behind Celebrity Dream and being tipped out. Resumes with no trials, but is a bomb when produced fresh.

13 Snow Lord (Bet Now: $7.00) has had a couple of runs back now for the Williams camp. Resumed with an average effort behind Dutch Spy before a much improved effort at York on Feb 9 when second to Scottish Trader. Considering his form, I think he’s short enough, largely due to the Pike factor, but third up, soft gate, he should run well.

1 Mr Motown (Bet Now: $15.00) is an Oratorio gelding who resumes for the Lindsey Smith team. He is a horse who tends to race best when produced first up, with the gelding winning impressively first up last time in. Interesting he resumes with no trials, but he draws a nice gate and gets the claim for in form apprentice Tayla Stone.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 4 Sandalwood

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Assetro

VALUE: Race Two Number 5 Saturia

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 8

Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 7

Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5, 11

Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 8, 13

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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