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The Autumn Carnival in Melbourne simmers along this Saturday at Caulfield with several blacktype events on the nine race card, headlined by the WJ Adams Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (12:30) Inglis Premier 1100m

Back Me

4 Aristocratic Miss (Bet Now: $4.50) on top. Tony McEvoy trains this filly, who resumed a fortnight back on the Parks track at Morphettville where she was a plain third to Enbihaar but she did plenty wrong in the straight. Once she balanced up, she was pretty good very late. Blinkers on now to sharpen her up and I am confident she can bounce back.

Danger

1 Messerschmitt (Bet Now: $4.80) is am All Too Hard colt for the Anthony Freedman team who was confidently supported when resuming at Geelong and the punters got it right. James Winks had him up on speed, seemingly bolting in the run, before pressing the button, hitting the front and holding on. Should take improvement from that and rates highly.

Long Shot

2 Grand Symphony (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Glass harmony colt on debut for the Robbie Griffiths team. The stable can always throw up a nice youngster leading into the Blue Diamond and this one is no exception. Thought he jumped out superbly recently at cranbourne and the signs are there that he is above average. Keen to see how he goes.

Race 2. (13:05) Ladbrokes Chairman's Stakes 1000m

Back Me

9 Of Importance (Bet Now: $6.00) is a daughter of Not A Single Doubt that is on debut for the Mick Price team. This girl showed tremendous early speed in a jump out last week here and went very nicely to my eye in the way she went about her business, with the trial being run in relatively solid time. Taking the gamble on her.

Danger

Pretty keen to see 5 Sunset Watch (Bet Now: $4.40), a first starter for Goldin Farms and Team Hawkes. The Goldin Farms colours have raced for the stable without much success but I think they can go close here. He blitzed them in a Flemington jump out last Friday, leading all the way and bolting in under Dwayne Dunn in fast time. Good enough for me to suggest he’ll be ultra competitive.

Long Shot

3 Logan River (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Tony McEvoy trained colt who I think will improve big time with the blinkers on first time. This bloke comes throug the Inglis Nursery at Randwick where he got back and stuck on well behind Irish Bet. Draws well, Kah steers and does have solid form surrounding him. Definite chance.

Race 3. (13:40) Ian Miller Handicap (78) 1400m

Back Me

Pretty keen here on 5 Lucky Cat (Bet Now: $6.50). She has that horrible racing pattern of flopping out the back and charging home but with the step up to 1400m, I think she’s well placed. Ran over 1200m here at the midweeks and worked home powerfully late when a close up third to Stylish Missile. Looking for more ground, which she gets, and does get significant weight relief.

Danger

2 Twitchy Frank (Bet Now: $2.50) is a Darren Weir trained daughter of Choisir who is low flying at the moment. Thought Ethan Brown gave her a lovely ride on speed over 1400m at Flemington three weeks back, controlling things beautifully in front and kicking really hard when required. Just starting to creep up in the weights now but hard to knock the way she is going.

Long Shot

4 Earth Angel (Bet Now: $8.00) is a regally bred filly that is first up for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Daughter of Animal Kingdom out of former champion filly Miss Finland who had two runs in the Autumn ti start her career. Won on debut at Ballarat before going to the Fernhill at Randwick and running fourth to Whispered Secret. Been given a really good break and her trials/jump outs have been very good.

Race 4. (14:15) Robert Hunter Handicap 2400m

Back Me

5 Last Week (Bet Now: $2.20) looks a standout to my eye. Thought he was given a pearler last start at Flemington, trucking up beautifully behind the speed before getting the drag up into the straight, peeling out and winning as he pleased. First look at Caulfield, but with these in form Weir runners, can’t ignore them.

Danger

6 Bint El Bedu (Bet Now: $5.00) is a handy staying mare for the Mick Price team who tried very hard to pick up Last Week at Flemington but the winner just packed too many punches and had the turn of foot whereas this girl is a real one batter. She does get back to her home track now and a hard 2400m certainly is up her alley.

Long Shot

7 Dornier (Bet Now: $23.00) could well do something here. The St Leger winner was specked at odds in the Last Week race at Flemington and I thought he was a real eye catcher, warming to the task late to run fourth. Looks an ideal candidate for a race like the Adelaide Cup but that being said, I think he can be quite effective here.

Race 5. (14:50) Ladbrokes Handicap (78) 1100m

Back Me

Bet of the day for mine in 12 Eurack (Bet Now: $2.70). Looks a very talented mare for the Nathan McPherson team who has really taken his time with this girl and he looks set to be rewarded. She is first up here, but gee she looked outstanding in a recent Cranbourne jump out. If she has trained on and is forward enough, she wins.

Danger

1 Handsome Thief (Bet Now: $3.90) was a good thing beat to most peoples eyes when resuming over 1100m at Caulfield several weeks back. Like a majority of the meeting, it was a race dominated by those near the speed and Lane wanted to get out and make his run but he couldn’t, and by the time he did, the race was all over yet still charged home to be beaten under a length. Keen to play here.

Long Shot

14 If Not Now When (Bet Now: $12.00) a key threat for mine for the Henry Dwyer camp. This mare was really good in defeat last time out at Caulfield when working home strongly from the back to run a close up second to Mamzelle Tess. Does tend to save her best for Caulfield and I think a fast run 1100m will really suit her racing pattern. Happy to include her.

Race 6. (15:25) WJ Adams Stakes 1000m

Back Me

5 Nasdex (Bet Now: $6.50) is a nippy gelding for the in form Ellerton/Zahra team who hasn’t raced since sitting on speed and fighting hard to win over the 1100m here under Steph Thornton. Been given a little freshen up and did look outstanding in a Flemington jump out last week. Looks ready to go to my eye and beautifully weighted.

Danger

1 Crystal Dreamer (Bet Now: $6.00) is an Ellerton/Zahra trained sprinter who hasn’t raced since December 16 when proving far too good for his rivals, beating Danuki, who franked the form with a spank job win at Gawler (Metro). Flemington jump out last week was excellent to the eye and he does have the class/race fitness factor.

Long Shot

If they overdo on speed, then a horse like 4 Palazzo Publico (Bet Now: $8.00) could surprise. Talented mare for Matty Smith who was a month between runs when racing over 1000m at Randwick a fortnight back when just running out of puff late when third to Memes. Fast run 1000m will suit and she has won here before.

Race 7. (16:05) Mal Seccull Handicap (84) 2000m

Back Me

9 Bedford (Bet Now: $2.20) is an Anthony Freedman trained horse on the rise and I think he can measure up here for sure. Loved his effort two back at Flemington and he confirmed that with a dominant win at the midweeks here when ridden an absolute treat by Mark Zahra. Up to 2000m looks ideal, he has upside…one of the hardest to beat for mine.

Danger

2 Willi Willi (Bet Now: $3.30) is a Craig Widdison trained galloper who got a well deserved win on the board last time out at Flemington, but I will say he was pretty much gifted the race, aided by a peach from Williams as well as a lack of initiative from other riders. Doubt he’ll get it as easy here, but he’s in winning form and has scope.

Long Shot

7 Lips Areios (Bet Now: $46.00) might well be one for the jumping caper but he is very capable on the flat if he brings his best form. He ran over the mile at Ballarat first up and was in need of the run behind Domino Vitale. He has an outstanding second up record, and his quality is good enough to beat these. Just depends if he is fit enough.

Race 8. (16:45) Ladbrokes Manfred Stakes 1200m

Back Me

5 Muraaqeb (Bet Now: $7.50) is the big watch here. Hayes/Dabernig trained colt that is first up after a mixed Spring campaign. Won well in a strong 3YO race at the Valley which was in between okay efforts in quality events. Does tend to go well on the fresh side and his jump out last Friday at Flemignton was superb.

Danger

10 Bravo Tango (Bet Now: $3.40) is a high class son of Congrats for the Mitchell Freedman team who showed us just how good he was when resuming down the straight in the Inglis Dash. He was the real eye catcher late, flashing home to run third to boom horse Nature Strip, beaten just under two lengths. With natural progression, he should take some beating.

Long Shot

8 Crystal Spirit (Bet Now: $9.50) is a real gutsy 3YO for the Ellerton/Zahra team who is three weeks between runs since racing over 1400m at Flemington when sitting on speed and fighting hard but just feeling the pinch late when second to Mr Money Bags. Back to 1200m looks ideal, he’s hard fit, in form and draws a sweet gate.

Race 9. (17:25) John Moule Handicap (84) 1400m

Back Me

5 Malaise (Bet Now: $4.80) for me to continue the picket fence. This horse had produced solid efforts in Sydney before racing at Flemington a fortnight back where he was given a sweet steer from Lane, trucking up behind the speed before peeling out and letting down strongly to get the job done. No reason to jump off, especially with the stable finally firing in Victoria.

Danger

13 Trogir (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Phillip Stokes trained gelding who is racing in career best form at the moment. Tick under four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he did the work on speed and fought hard but in the process gave the perfect drag up to the eventual winner, The Avenger, and he couldn’t hold that horse out. Draws to get a sweet run and senior jock takes over.

Long Shot

7 This Kid Rocks (Bet Now: $14.00) had been going just fairly in town to start the prep but perhaps was down on confidence so the stable sent him to Penola last time out where he found a thin race and got the confidence boost with a tough win after taking off a fair way from home. Confident he can go close here.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Five Number 12 Eurack

NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 5 Last Week

VALUE: Race Eight Number 5 Muraaqeb

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 8, 9

Leg Three: 1, 5, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 5, 7, 10, 13

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