Night racing continues at the Valley on Friday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (18:15) Front Runner Membership (bm64) 1200m
I’m with 7 Sistine Explorer (Bet Now: $4.00) in the opener. Andrew Noblet trained filly that was an impressive maiden winner fresh at Ballarat. Then raced over 1000m here and tried hard but was no match for impressive winner Brownie. Like her up to 1200m and John Allen back on, she’ll take beating.
Back to 1200m I find interesting with 3 Lempicka (Bet Now: $2.90). Was with her last start over 1300m at Sandown and though held up for a few strides, I thought she was there to win. Does she want 1400m or back to 1200m will suit her better? Have to wait and see but she has the talent to win.
6 Luna Cat (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Team Hayes trained filly that comes to town off the back of a maiden win at Bendigo over 1300m. She was on speed and had to dig in to get the win, which she did, and was impressive. Harder here, but I think she can measure up here.
Race 2. (18:45) The Rokon Civil Mdn Plate 1200m
10 Indy Rose Warrior (Bet Now: $3.60) on top. Busuttin/Young trained filly that resumed here where she did a bit of early work to find the front but despite that, she fought hard and was only run down late. If she gets across without spending too many petrol tickets, she’ll take beating.
6 Endlessly (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Team Hawkes trained filly that is second up here. Resumed over 1300m at Bendigo where she had a suck run behind the speed but just lacked the turn of foot to put them away. Back to 1200m I find interesting and draws wide but should be strong at the end.
9 De Long Star (Bet Now: $12.00) should appreciate the rise to 1200m. Latest outing came over 1100m at Bendigo when back near last in the run and made up good ground late when a narrow second. If she gets a decent drag into the race, she’ll be dangerous.
Race 3. (19:15) Ladbroke It (bm70) 1600m
9 Big Angel (Bet Now: $5.00) is running out of chances but I think drawn wide, she’ll get clear air and launch at these late I feel. Ran over this track/distance last time out and if you were on, like I was, it was ugly viewing. She isn’t a sit/sprint type so getting badly held up didn’t help her at all. Drawn out, Olly can get going whenever he wants and is hard to beat.
1 Riotus Mischief (Bet Now: $3.50) comes here with fresh legs and I think has to be respected. Over a month between runs since being heavily backed at Morphettville and under a confident steer from Vorster, she was able to get there, just. Fresh legs into this but she’s a winner.
6 Just Stellar (Bet Now: $31.00) can be an improver at odds. Proven performer at the track and on the quick back up after racing here last Friday night. She was back near last in the run and couldn’t get involved. Drawn much better, and with the claim, she’s in with a shout.
Race 4. (19:45) Tote Bar & Dining (bm78) 1200m
Perfect race for 4 Housay (Bet Now: $5.50) and he’s one of the better bets on the card IMO. Resumed in the Subzero on Cup Day at 1400m and a truly run 1400m just found him out fresh. Back to 1200m, gate one, fitter…I just think it all points to him taking this out.
1 Exeter (Bet Now: $5.00) is hit and miss but he clearly brings the best form. Strong winner here fresh before going to Cup Day at Flemington and was far from disgraced in defeat behind a future Group l horse IMO in Quantico. Back to this level, he’ll take beating here.
Up to 1200m I find with 8 The Last Napoleon (Bet Now: $12.00). He usually saves his best for the 955m here and that was last start where he ran a narrow second to a pretty talented mare in Lady Siolly, who goes around as a key chance at Pakenham. I doubt he wins here, but a must for multiples.
Race 5. (20:15) Ladbrokes 55sec Challenge-bm70 955m
3 Brownie (Bet Now: $1.80) is a progressive mare for the Maher/Eustace camp. Not sure she beat much at the Valley last time over 1000m but it was just sustained speed from the front on testing ground is what was impressive about the spank job. Back to 955m I find interesting but she has the right racing style for it.
10 Mutinous (Bet Now: $7.50) is one to watch from a market perspective. He’s had a few homes throughout his career and is now with Enver Jusufovic. This horse is blessed with great early toe so the 955m set up here looks ideal for his racing pattern and with only 54kg on his back, it’ll be handle bars down and look to run them ragged.
1 China Affair (Bet Now: $6.50) is an interesting runner. Formerly with Jason Warren, he now finds himself with Clayton Douglas and has Jamie Kah, so has a bit going for him. He threatened to be a city class horse last time in but just couldn’t quite put it together. Has worked well at this track to get ready, and Blinkers on first time fresh tells me there is intent.
Race 6. (20:45) Orbit Logistics (bm64) 1500m
3 Paint Me Red (Bet Now: $9.00) each way for me. If this track is playing on speed, then I think he becomes the one to beat. Josh Richards rode him a treat on Kilmore Cup Day. It’s a tricky track, but he rode it perfectly on this guy, getting the kick down the hill and getting a winning break. Should lead and take running down.
6 Stay Gold (Bet Now: $3.50) is hit and miss but her best is clearly good enough to take this out. Ran over 1400m at Sandown last time out and was good from off the speed when second to a progressive animal, Starlight Scope. If she can get luck from the draw, she’s in the mix for sure.
Once upon a time, 4 One Man Band (Bet Now: $11.00) was a bludger who would get easily scared of the winning post. But now he’s won three of his past five and comes to town as a winning chance. Lumped 63.5kg at Mornington last time and just gave them a spanking from the front in sustained speed. Harder here, but I think he has to be respected the way he’s racing.
Race 7. (21:15) Seppelt Wines (bm64) 1200m
9 Savannah Cloud (Bet Now: $2.40) is getting towards last chance territory but he does look to have the A1 form. That A1 form being a first up second at Ballarat behind a Group l horse of the future in Marabi. Placed in both runs at the track, upside, stable/jock in form, draw…all points to him.
10 Bold Manner (Bet Now: $6.50) has done little wrong in her five start career. Wide no cover at Sandown last time out but fought on really well in defeat when a close up fourth to surprise winner Thorondor. That was her first run in five weeks so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.
5 La Caresse (Bet Now: $19.00) is definitely worth a ticket each way at odds. Matt Laurie trained gelding that has had two runs back from a break. Resumed with a win on testing ground at Moe. Then went to a strong 70 at Horsham and was far from disgraced behind Lowanna Magic, a proven metro performer. Hard to beat from the suck draw.
Race 8. (21:45) Big Swing Golf (bm64) 2040m
Fitter and on firmer footing, I want to give 4 Oceans Of Stanima (Bet Now: $8.00) chance. Australian debut came on Cranbourne Cup Day where in the run, he looked to be absolutely bolting but as soon as pressure was applied, he went backwards. Fitter, firmer deck, he can bounce back.
10 My Delight (Bet Now: $2.50) is getting towards last chance territory but she has the right stable/jock combo to get into the winners list. Ran over the mile here last time out where she had to make a sustained run and that just told on her finale late, tiring. She does seem a bit one paced so up to 2040m I do like.
3 Ocean Heart (Bet Now: $11.00) should be suited back in trip. 2400m was a bridge too far for the mare at Bendigo last time out, finishing down the track behind Coup De Tonnerre. Back to 2040m looks a positive for her, she maps well, hard fit and is in the best 2000m+ camp in the business.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 Savannah Cloud
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 4 Housay
LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 4 Oceans Of Stanima
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 6, 11
Leg Three: 9
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 10
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