Eight races will be run and won at The Valley on Friday night. Weather is fine, track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
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Race 1. (17:45) Boozebud Mdn Plate 1200m
3 Mr Charismatic (Bet Now: $4.20) is the way I am leaning in what looks a pretty solid maiden to start the meeting. Team Hayes trained son of Bullbars that is on debut off the back of some pretty strong jumpout work at Flemington where he has seemingly moved like a nice horse and to my eye has had a good grounding for start one. Tricky race, but happy to be in his corner.
9 Elba (Bet Now: $4.40) hasn’t done too much wrong in two career outings for Team Freedman. She was smashed in betting when resuming in an Echuca maiden but she let the punters down when only managing a third to Ravalli after getting every chance. Tricky draw, but gets Blinkers on to sharpen her up and I am respecting the hard SP from first up.
4 Platinum Field (Bet Now: $8.50) should appreciate a rise to 1200m. Maher/Eustace trained gelding that debuted over 1100m at Ballarat and recently, that track has really suited those up/in, so this guy getting back in the run sealed his fate but he made up ground and was good in defeat. If he’s within range on the turn, I think he is good enough to win.
Race 2. (18:15) Poppy Appeal Mdn Plate 1600m
1 Big Jimma (Bet Now: $3.20) on top for me. Robert Hickmott trained son of Dundeel that debuted over 1200m at Ballarat where he got back in the run and was held up at times before eventually getting clear and finding the line pretty well behind impressive winner Scully. He looked like a horse who will eat up more ground, which he gets here, and with enormous upside to come, he rates highly.
3 Linas Reel (Bet Now: $2.60) rates highly as a key threat. Highland Reel gelding that debuted over the mile at Moe where he was well backed late and in a bunched finish, he found the line strongly, just missing out on the win when second to Kingston Of Castille. He maps to get a suck run in transit…staying at the mile is the knock but he looks talented.
2 Boga Legend (Bet Now: $8.00) is bred to appreciate 1600m. Mitch Freedman trained gelding that debuted over 1400m at Echuca where he was wide no cover for the trip and that early burn just told late in the piece behind Palentino Heights. Better for the run under the belt, should appreciate the more ground and gets D Oliver.
Race 3. (18:45) Christmas At The Valley Hcp (C1) 1519m
5 Paris Affair (Bet Now: $8.00) is on top but not really a race I want to get involved in. Danny O’Brien trained gelding that resumed over 1400m at Kyneton where he didn’t seem 100% happy on the tight track but picked up in the straight and was pretty good late in the piece behind Soaring Eagle. Better for the run under the belt, up in trip, Oliver sticking, he has enough in his corner to take this out.
1 Mr Mojo Risin’ (Bet Now: $2.30) is one of the key threats. Andrew Forsman has this guy, who did more than enough fresh at Kyneton before going to Geelong where he got back and wound up strongly when a close up fourth to Boldinho, who got a picnic in front and was too good. Convinced this guy is racing well and with a more positive ride, he’ll be around the mark.
6 Highland Harley (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Liam Howley trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since May 18 at Kyneton when near the speed and battled away well enough despite having every chance behind Prince Of The City. 1500m fresh tells me there is some level of intent and the depth here is on the thin side. He gets respect from me.
Race 4. (19:15) Inglis Digital Sale 3-8 Nov (Bm64) 1200m
I’ll take a chance with 4 Gin O’Clock (Bet Now: $5.50), a former UK galloper that makes his Australian debut for Team Hayes. This guy showed promise when racing over there, winning at start two after a strong debut at York. His trial/jumpout work leading in has been quite strong to the eye and he finds a very winnable race at start one down under. Market will be the guide but he’s the way I am leaning.
1 Prancing Spirit (Bet Now: $1.90) has a tricky gate to overcome but he’s putting together a pretty good record for Phillip Stokes and commands respect. He ran over this trip at Pakenham last time when sitting near the speed throughout before being clicked up by Stackhouse and away he went, drawing clear for a dominant win. Gets in well after the claim, but should press forward and take beating.
3 Grand Crusader (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Team Hawkes trained gelding that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since June 21 when producing an end of prep run at Canterbury when down the track behind Star Spirit. He is a horse who can sprint well on the fresh side but his jumpout work at Flemington has been more than encouraging. Watch the market.
Race 5. (19:45) Ladbrokes Racing Club (Bm70) 1200m
5 Corner Off (Bet Now: $3.10) seems the straight bat option. Archie Alexander has this mare going really well at the moment. Resumed with a big win at Seymour before going to this track/distance where she was on speed and tried her guts out but couldn’t quite get past Etienne. Third up, so she should be hard fit and with an on speed racing pattern, she rates highly.
7 Ferlazzo (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Price/Kent trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since June 14 at the midweeks at Sandown when on speed and she was there to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Born Hustler. Couple of very encouraging jumpouts to get ready for the return, she maps perfect and can sprint well fresh.
4 Funzelle (Bet Now: $6.00) should be around the mark for Moody/Coleman. This mare was a drifter in betting on Moe Cup Day when wide no cover for the trip but credit to her, she stuck on really well and was only nabbed late when second to A Little Deep. Maps to get a much better run in transit and if that hasn’t busted her, she’ll take beating.
Race 6. (20:15) Ladbrokes 55 Second Challenge Heat 4 (Bm70) 955m
3 Kaygeebee (Bet Now: $2.70) is the danger. Resumes for Price/Kent, having not raced since May 13 down the straight at Flemington when on speed and tired late behind Airman. That form reads very well for this and he maps to stalk Midnight Charm. If he’s ready to go, he has the quality to take this out for sure, but watch the market.
11 Scuderia (Bet Now: $2.45) is the likely leader and will take running down if the track is playing towards those on speed. She bolted up at this track/distance last time, producing sustained speed from the front and giving nothing else a look in. The depth has thinned out after scratchings and she looks the leader, so she’ll take running down.
1 Mamaragan (Bet Now: $10.00) is a talented animal when right and should be entertained for wider multiples. He ran in a strong 78 at Caulfield last time when back near last in the run and failed to make up any real headway behind in form mare Dancing Alone. He is suited in a race like this I feel and his best is clearly good enough to be around the mark.
Race 7. (20:45) Musk Creek Farm (Bm70) 2040m
3 Cadmus (Bet Now: $2.90) is the way I am going. Team Freedman trained gelding that has been solid in two runs down under, creating an impression when winning first up at Sale when giving them a start and a beating in an impressive display, producing a sustained finale. if the inside gate isn’t a negative, I think it is all upside with him and he’s the one to beat.
6 Sea Speedwell (Bet Now: $3.00) is third up from a spell and should just about be at peak fitness. This mare was second up in the Pinker Pinker at Cranbourne where she was near a strong speed and being near that tempo saw her just tire late in the piece behind Flash Mary. Back to a pretty moderate 70, I think she’ll be around the mark and is a key chance.
2 Russian Dancer (Bet Now: $13.00) hasn’t set the world on fire this time in but he won’t know himself in a race as weak as this. He ran in a strong 80 at Caulfield last time when back in the run and failed to make up any real headway behind Maktoob, who came out and won the Sale Cup last weekend, so the form reads very well and fourth up, he should be hard fit.
Race 8. (21:15) Sharp Eit Solutions (Bm70) 1600m
4 Vivacious Award (Bet Now: $3.60) is flying for Paul Preusker. She comes to town in winning form after leading throughout to win over 1700m at Warrnambool where she produced sustained speed from the front and gave them a belting in such an impressive display. Good test here in town, but with her racing style, off a win, she appeals.
8 Toyz On Fire (Bet Now: $3.10) commands respect. This mare was a notable drifter in betting last time out at Ballarat but she defied those flucs and ran a strong race from on speed, just failing to get the win when a narrow second to Great Taste. Gets down in the weights after the claim, lands near the front and is a key threat.
7 Sweet Bella (Bet Now: $13.00) is in with a shout. She was big odds when resuming at Albury but gee she was impressive I thought, giving them a start and a beating from near last on the turn in a very sharp return to the track. Stable can get them to fire in town on occasion and the depth is very much on the thin side.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 3 Kaygeebee
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Big Jimma
LONG SHOT: Race One Number 3 Mr Charismatic
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 7, 10
Leg Two: 3, 11
Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 8
Leg Four: 4, 6, 7, 8
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
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