The BMW Sydney Carnival continues at Rosehill this Saturday, where the feature race is the $500,000 Rosehill Guineas (2000m). All eyes will be on the kiwi stayer and recent New Zealand Derby winner Puccini, who dominated the classics in his homeland and is now after the Australian classics. Doncaster preparations conclude for some in the George Ryder Stakes (1500m), with Boban and Red Tracer the leading duo to beat, but they’ll have stiff company from the likes of El Roca and Sacred Falls.
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Race One (12:15) : Manion Cup 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: Opinion (Best Odds: $2.80) comfortably beat Junoob two back in the Parramatta Cup on a bottomless surface, then on a firm track, he was well held by that horse in the Randwick City Stakes. With the soft ground, I’ll back Opinion.
Big Danger: If there is going to be an upset, it could come at the hands of The Offer (Best Odds: $4.00), who was very good in the Randwick City Stakes given he was wide all the way and loves the mud. They look the clear two.
Roughie: Gondokoro (Best Odds: $26.00) was outclassed last week in the Ranvet behind Silent Achiever. Her previous run in the Kilmore Cup was quite good and she is the QLD Oaks winner on a wet track, so she has to rate as a chance.
Race Two (12:50) : Pago Pago Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: There was plenty to like about the debut win of Kuro (Best Odds: $7.00) at Hawkesbury a couple of weeks back, sitting on the speed before just dashing clear and winning by a margin despite doing plenty wrong. The time was very good, he is well bred and looks to be a good horse of the future.
Big Danger: Modoc (Best Odds: $9.00) loomed big time in the Skyline, ambling up to the leaders at the top of the Randwick straight, but just didn’t quite finish the race off and battled on for third. He is a rock hard fit youngster with plenty of race experience, and that will be his advantage.
Roughie: Mr Cha Cha (Best Odds: $4.00) did everything right in the Black Opal, and did indeed look the winner a furlong out, but was bloused out wide by Lucky Raquie, who ran a cracker behind Earthquake last week, so the form reads well here.
Race Three (13:30) : Birthday Card Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Aerobatics (Best Odds: $9.00) ran okay first up at Randwick behind A Time For Julia, who franked the form last Saturday with a gallant performance in the Coolmore Classic. Races very well second up and at Rosehill.
Big Danger: If you backed Avoid Lightning (Best Odds: $4.80) first up at Randwick, it was tough to watch given she was badly held up behind horses and never really got a decent crack at them. Bred to swim and is a lethal horse second up.
Roughie: Shahad (Best Odds: $9.50) finally broke her maiden tag first up at Canterbury in soft style. The margin of a neck doesn’t really reflect the ease in which he did it. She has come back really well and remember, when last in work, she raced behind Guelph and was far from disgraced.
Race Four (14:10) : Magic Night Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on Lady Sharapova (Best Odds: $6.00), who was the subject of a decent betting plunge on debut at Flemington last month, and she simply didn’t handle the straight course. Back to Sydney and trialled sensationally last Friday, and if she brings that here, I think she wins and continues the Team Hawkes juggernaut.
Big Danger: Clifton Red (Best Odds: $11.00) was a most impressive debut winner down the Flemington straight, then ran here last week in the Reisling and was far from disgraced in seventh, making ground late. She is a Sires/Champagne horse for mine, but if they go hard in front, she’ll launch late.
Roughie: Puzzle (Best Odds: $41.00) has looked like a star at the trials, but is yet to show it on race day. The penny will drop eventually, and it could be in this race without shocking me.
Race Five (14:45) : Darby Munro Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Sidestep (Best Odds: $3.40) on top, but there is a question mark on how genuine he is I think, because he looked as if he was going to go straight past them in the Fireball, but couldn’t get past Shamalia. Still, he’ll be fitter now and races quite well on rain affected ground.
Big Danger: Putting in Flight Academy (Best Odds: $5.50) as the danger. Loved the way she closed off in the Fireball, getting a long way back, getting into traffic then balancing up and finding the line late for fourth. Ran a very good race first up on a wet track here, so she’ll handle it and is on the minimum. Massive threat.
Roughie: Cosmic Endeavour (Best Odds: $5.50) was caught in the early speed battle in the Fireball, and tired late for sixth. Win first up was quite dominant, and a repeat of that will see her be right in the mix.
Race Six (15:20) : The Galaxy 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Normally this race is run at a frantic pace, and that should be the case again, but I can’t see many speed runners apart from Rain Affair and Kencella (Best Odds: $7.00), who is making the quantum leap from the Maurice McCarten to The Galaxy, but given the horse absolutely flies at the Rosehill 1100m, and is in form, why not have a throw at the stumps? On the minimum, will press forward and give a great sight at odds.
Big Danger: Famous Seamus (Best Odds: $10.00) was excellent first up in the Challenge Stakes, making up a stack of ground late near the inside, which wasn’t the place to be, and run third. He is a lethal second up horse, and if he is close enough on the turn, he is going well enough to win it.
Roughie: The class runner is the 2013 Galaxy winner Bel Sprinter (Best Odds: $17.00), and he appears on target given he flashed home late for an eye catching fourth in the Challenge. I don’t think he’ll produce his stunning performance of 12 months ago, but this race isn’t as strong as 2013, so he must rate as a chance.
Race Seven (16:00) : George Ryder Stakes 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Have to respect the gun mare Red Tracer (Best Odds: $3.30), who was unbelievable in the Canterbury Stakes given she missed the kick, then got onto heels and almost fell, losing a couple of lengths, then pick herself up in the straight and savage the line for third. The rain will hit, so that enhances her chances even more.
Big Danger: It’s amazing what a jockey can do. I’m not sure how, or why, but for some reason, Boban (Best Odds: $8.00) only responds to Schofield and nobody else. That was clearly evident in the Chipping Norton where he just exploded, and on a shifty rain affected track, which he hates, so that tells me is back on track, and comes back to his home track, where he has been explosive in the past.
Roughie: Really keen to see El Roca (Best Odds: $11.00) against the older horses here. You couldn’t put enough on him at the 300m mark in the Randwick Guineas. He just looked as if he was going to do a space job, but bumped into Dissident and got worried about it. Wide barrier should ensure he is outside runners, clear of trouble and his most dominant win has been on wet ground, at this track.
Race Eight (16:40) : Rosehill Guineas 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Really excited to see what Puccini (Best Odds: $5.00) does here. His win in the New Zealand Derby was quite simply unbelievable given he missed the start and was asked to make a couple of runs during the race, then kick clear in the straight to win comfortably. The stable are relatively unknown in Australia hence why I think his price will be greater than what it should be. He is a star for mine, and if everything is 100% with him, he’ll just about take care of these.
Big Danger: Dissident (Best Odds: $5.50) wasn’t going to win the Randwick Guineas, but El Roca bumped into him, and it almost seemed like El Roca nudged some sort of button which sparks the fighting qualities Dissident has. I’d love to see him ridden with cover, because he’ll be even better when he has something chase.
Roughie: Don’t think he’ll win, but look for Teronado (Best Odds: $7.00) to hit the line again as he heads towards winning the Derby in a couple of weeks time. He was fantastic in the Randwick Guineas, coming from well back again. I’m confident he’ll win the Derby, but if he wins this, it’ll be a bonus.
Race Nine (17:20) : Percy Sykes Tribue (Epona) Stakes 1900m Form Guide
Back Me: Really good edition of this race. Epingle (Best Odds: $7.50) was fantastic during the Tassie Carnival, winning both the Hobart and Launceston Cups in dominant fashion. With residual fitness, and class, she should take some beating here.
Big Danger: Lucky Lago (Best Odds: $6.00) worked to the line okay late when fifth in the Aspiration behind Diamond Drille. Crying out for further, which she gets here, and gets a wet track, which she excels on. Getting close to D-Day for her.
Roughie: Backed Danesiri (Best Odds: $18.00) at her past couple at massive odds, and she has nearly got the bikkies for me, but just can’t quite find the winning post. She’ll appreciate the step up to 1900m, and is in really good form.
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Best Bet: Race Four Number 11 Lady Sharapova (Best Odds: $6.00)
Next Best: Race Nine Number 1 Epingle (Best Odds: $7.50)
Best Roughie: Race Three Number 2 Aerobatics (Best Odds: $9.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 7, 12
Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 12, 13, 14, 15
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 9
Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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