Nine races will be run and won at Doomben this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:02) Cascade Handicap 1615m
Looks a good race for 5 Capitulate (Bet Now: $3.70 FAT ODDS). Has been pretty good in two runs for the Edmonds camp, winning impressively fresh at Ipswich before racing at this track/distance last Wednesday where he was well backed but just found Alpine Dancer too good. Gets a 3kg weight swing and blinkers back on, confident he wins.
2 Aileach (Bet Now: $7.00 FAT ODDS) looks the main threat. Was 1200-1600 last time here and she tried very hard, working home well late behind Baccarat Baby, who is down to run in the Flight. Has the hard mile run under the belt now, so she should improve off that and go close. Hopefully for her, the pace in front isn’t a crawl.
1 A Man To Match (Bet Now: $3.90 FAT ODDS) looks to be a slight query at the mile but does appear to get some map favours. Ran over 1400m at the Sunny Coast three weeks and fought on pretty strongly to finish a narrow third to the progressive Belle Roc. I think his best chance of winning will be if he finds the front and dictates.
Race 2. (12:37) Pullman Brisbane Airport Plate (Class 6) 1350m
Just has to hold her form and I think 9 Stella Victoria (Bet Now: $1.48 FAT ODDS) will win again. Rob Heathcoate has this mare in career best form at the moment, winning her past two in pretty dominant fashion, the latest coming a fortnight back over the 1350m where Lloyd took her straight to the front and it was game over shortly after. Against the mares now, with upside, keen on her.
8 Splitter (Bet Now: $5.75 FAT ODDS) is a Tony Gollan trained mare who is racing really well at the moment. Dominant win two back at Ipswich before racing at this track/distance where he beat all bar Scallopini. Looks suited back to mares grade. The only query I have with her is a strong 1350m at this level, but she looks to get a great chance here.
4 Our Jamaica (Bet Now: $19.00 FAT ODDS) could be a sleeper at odds. Micahel Lakey trains this mare, who comes through the Scallopini race from three weeks ago where she was a little unlucky not to finish closer, getting slightly held up when appearing to have plenty to offer. Suited back to this level…doubt she wins, but a must for exotics.
Race 3. (13:12) Happy Birthday Clem Hogan Plate (Class 3) 2020m
The horse on the up here is clearly 13 Sofie’s Gold Class (Bet Now: $4.75 FAT ODDS) . 2/2 this time in for Debbie Newham and she’s been quite impressive in both outings, the latest win coming over the mile at the Sunshine Coast. Loved the way she got into her work late, suggesting the extra trip is no issue, and she has more upside than most.
5 Impavido (Bet Now: $2.10 FAT ODDS) is the best horse in the race by many lengths…but could you trust him? After his Gosford win, I would have said yes, but he got back to his old ways at his next two outings, not attacking the line with any purpose. If he’s fair dinkum, he’s got this lot covered. Do I want to back him? No.
2 Polemic (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS) looks to be going well for the Stephen Lee team, itself who is in a purple patch. Polemic was four weeks between runs when racing over the mile here a fortnight back and against the bias, i thought he was okay late behind the low flying Madam Shazam. Has run well up to 2400m before so the 2000m here no issue.
Race 4. (13:47) Simon George Sells Strawberries Handicap 1200m
If 6 Snitz (Bet Now: $3.90 FAT ODDS) is right, I think he wins. Matty Dunn trains this gelding, who will be going to the Kosciuszko via this race and I think class will get him home here. He raced during the early part of the Brisbane Carnival and ran well but after a tough Autumn, he was probably looking for the paddock. Been given a good break and looked very sharp in a recent trial. Suspect he’s ready to go.
1 Fiery Heights (Bet Now: $3.70 FAT ODDS) was at the crossroads at one stage but he looks to have really turned the corner since joining Barry Lockwood, racing much more consistently. Ran over the 1350m here three weeks ago and looked to travel well in speed but had no answers late for Zumbelina, who won last Saturday to frank the form. Back to 1200m a big tick for this gelding.
7 Taillevent (Bet Now: $18.00 FAT ODDS) is flying for Bruce Hill. Dominant win in the Muwillumbah Newmarket two back before racing over this track/distance and you could make a strong case that he should have won, but had no luck at all in the straight in the race won by Freddie Fox Trot. Better luck and he’ll go close.
Race 5. (14:22) Kelso Wood Memorial Handicap (75) 1050m
I can see 13 Cool Drafts (Bet Now: $10.00) being popular here. Ben Currie trains this mare, who has been quite good this time in, her last start seeing her chase them down and get the win in the last stride. Bit of a step up in grade/depth here, but gets gate one, 52.5kg on her back and Taylor Marshall steering. The double figures looks overs.
8 Progression (Bet Now: $6.50) can certainly win this if she brings her best form. Loved the way she knuckled down to win two back over 900m at Newcastle before going to the 1000m at Randwick where the bias that day suited those on speed and she couldn’t finish off behind Prince Mayted. Drops a fair bit in depth and the trip away could spark her back into action.
6 Dam Wonderful (Bet Now: $21.00) is a daughter of Wonderful World resuming for the Garnett Taylor team. This girl hasn’t raced since January 11 at Rocky over 1050m when on speed and just getting pipped. Has a lovely first up record, placing 6/7 and a recent trial at the Sunny Coast looked pretty good to the eye.
Race 6. (14:57) Canadian Club Melbourne Cup Day Handicap (75) 1050m
I’ll take a chance on 13 I’ve Gotta Nel (Bet Now: $4.40), formerly with Toby Edmonds but is now with Barry Lockwood and we’ve seen via Fiery Heights that Lockwood can improve these tried horses. This horse is certainly good enough to beat these fresh and to my eye, I thought he went very nicely in a recent Doomben trial won by Mehmeto. Good fresh record, I’ll lean his way.
Just how good is 11 Beau Arrow (Bet Now: $3.10)? I’m not sure, but he’s 3/3 and we don’t know how good they are til they are beaten. He produced a ripping finale to win over this track/distance three weeks ago, producing a brilliant finale to nab the well backed Hi Fiver on the peg. He’ll likely give them a start but will be strong at the end.
15 Barnsley (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Gary Duncan trained gelding who resumed over 1000m at the Sunny Coast a couple of Wednesdays ago where he looked to travel well in the run but his condition just gave out late when fifth to Another Slipper. Really good second up record and he should only improve off the resumption.
Race 7. (15:37) Moet & Chandon Chairman's Club Handicap (70) 1615m
I think 12 Galtero (Bet Now: $3.70) can only run well here. Visually, his wins this prep haven’t screamed out of brilliance but it’s the way he has put them away and savaged the line that has really impressed me, both coming at Ipswich. Bigger track will be ideal for him and up to the mile third up looks a big tick for this Tony Gollan runner.
4 Road To Heaven (Bet Now: $3.90) is a Kris Lees trained gelding who is going really well this time in. Was six weeks between runs when racing over the 1350m here three weeks ago and tried hard but was no match late for the hard fit Scallopini. Just a little query at a strong mile, but ability wise, he has to be respected.
3 Cedarwood (Bet Now: $5.00) is a bit of a bludger for Chris Waller but at his best, he can definitely win this. Tardy away two back at the Sunny Coast and pretty much took no part. Backed up a week later at this track/distance and stuck on well behind Balius. Gets a lovely gate and D Browne steers, so he’s likeable.
Race 8. (16:17) Sky Racing Plate (Class 6) 1350m
10 Most Exalted (Bet Now: $6.00) for me. This bloke was somewhat unwanted in betting when resuming at this track/distance a fortnight ago but he was one of the runs of the day, closing off hard from the back to run a narrow third to Nothing Box. Provided there is no second up syndrome, I think he’s a great bet from the draw.
11 Reach For Heaven (Bet Now: $3.20) had his first run for Toby Edmonds at this track/distance a fortnight ago and I thought Maloney gave the horse every chance but was bloused on the peg by Nothing Box. Was a month between runs leading in, so I think he can only improve off that and is a definite threat for mine.
12 Good Time Charlie (Bet Now: $11.00) is a ripper and he’s flying for Michael Lakey. Just needs to put a win on the board but keeps finding one or two better, which was the case here a fortnight back when beaten narrowly by Freddie Fox Trot, but he did have his chance. Gets the favours from gate one and should run well again.
Race 9. (16:57) Mount Franklin Handicap 2020m
8 Exoteric (Bet Now: $4.60) is going well for Chris Waller but just can’t quite crack it for a win at the moment. Thought he had his chance over 2200m here two weeks ago but Kubis had the bias in his favour and just proved too good. Back to 2000m the little query, but hard to knock the way he’s going. Just needs to win.
The bit of give in the track will certainly help 3 My Giuliano (Bet Now: $8.50), a Chris Waller trained gelding who was given a lovely steer by McNab to win over 2200m here three weeks ago, getting the run along the rail and dashing clear late. Bit of rain will only help his chances and the double figures appears a touch of overs.
6 Outraged (Bet Now: $14.00) is getting on in years but he’s the sort of horse who could easily bob up and win here without surprising. He comes through the Kubis race from a fortnight back and the bias was against him, so a total forgive for mine, but I thought his effort was quite good in defeat when running fourth. If the track plays fair, he’ll go close.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 6 Snitz
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Capitulate
LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 13 Cool Drafts
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 11, 13, 14, 15
Leg Two: 3, 4, 12
Leg Three: 2, 10, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6, 8
$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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