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The Belmont Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Strickland Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (14:33) Free Entry To Belmont Plate 1000m

Back Me

1 Money Matters (Bet Now: $3.70)  is a son of Canford Cliffs who was hard in the market when debuting over 1000m here last Wednesday and despite doing a bit of work to get on speed, he was going sweetly under Pike and when asked for the effort he responded and put them away like a nice horse. Looks to be only three genuine winning hope here and I think he’s the main one.

Danger

3 Miss Tycoon (Bet Now: $4.00)  is a Neville Parnham trained filly who is two weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she attempted to lead all the way and gave a good kick but 1000m on the bog track just found her out late when beaten narrowly by No Apology. Hopefully the track won’t be as wet this time around, which should see her stronger at the end.

Long Shot

2 Mia Dolce (Bet Now: $5.00)  is a few weeks between runs after racing over 1300m here last time out and in the form guide, it’ll say he beat two runners home and was beaten six lengths, but just put a pen through the run. Just had no luck in the straight when seemingly bolting for a run and should have finished much closer, the race won by Kelvin. Back to 1000m a little query, but is a talented type and looks one of the main chances.

Race 2. (15:13) Tabtouch Better Your Bet Handicap (1MW) 1600m

Back Me

1 Deimos (Bet Now: $2.05)  looks just about the good thing of the day across Australia. Every Winter in Perth we usually see a horse or two who go through the grades and measure up during the Summer Carnival and I think Deimos can be the 2019 edition. He’s been outstanding in two runs back from a spell, resulting in two dominant wins, the latest coming a fortnight back at this track/distance. I think only bad luck beats him.

Danger

4 Celtic Court (Bet Now: $5.00)  is a Brett Pope trained gelding who was an impressive maiden winner two back over 1300m at Northam before stepping up to the mile there where he got back in the run and finished off nicely to run a close up second to Barbie Will Do. Has the mile run under the belt, which should hold him in good stead for this and confident he can measure up.

Long Shot

5 Rare Coin (Bet Now: $23.00)  trialled up quite well prior to resuming over 1400m at Pinjarra where he got back in a strongly run race and tried to make up ground nearer the inside but he just ran out of puff late behind Scandal Maker in a solid enough resumption. Might need another run or two given he will be better suited at 2000m+, but I think he’s one to include in multiples.

Race 3. (15:53) Nola Schlam 90th Birthday Handicap 1200m

Back Me

7 Showmanship (Bet Now: $2.15)  looks a very exciting prospect for Team Williams so keen to see how he goes. Debuted over 1000m here a couple of Wednesdays back where he sat back in the run and was niggled at a fair way from home but he went through his gears under Pike and once the gaps appeared, he surged and came clear late for a most impressive win. Looks a good one and confident he measures up.

Danger

There is talk that 1 Samizdat (Bet Now: $3.50)  could be a player during the Melbourne Spring so if that’s indeed the case, even with the 62kg impost, he’d want to be winning this to warrant those discussions. In saying that, his win here two weeks ago with the 60kg was outstanding from off the pace despite the race being set up for him. Keen to see how he goes.

Long Shot

5 Vintage Stock (Bet Now: $11.00)  is a talented filly for Alan Matthews that resumes. This filly hasn’t raced since contesting the WA Oaks where she was good in defeat but perhaps a touch outclassed and didn’t run the 2400m out behind Dark Choice. Resumes without a trial, but can sprint well fresh and does have a touch of class/quality about her. Interesting to see what the market does.

Race 4. (16:28) Strickland Stakes 2000m

Back Me

Forgive a good horse for one defeat and I’ll be doing that with 4 Galaxy Star (Bet Now: $1.65) . I just think the bottomless track was the reason she got rolled in the Hyperion two weeks ago at the hands of Gatting, who lapped up the conditions and was safely holding the Railway winner. 2000m will suit both horses well but I’m banking on a firmer track for Galaxy Star to turn the tables.

Danger

If the track was bottomless again, I think you’d have to go with 2 Gatting (Bet Now: $2.30). He handled the conditions best in the Hyperion and despite being one of the first off the bit, he was strongest on the line in a pretty dominant win. He was only second up there and has more upside to come. If the track is firmer, can he still out tough Galaxy Star? That will be the question.

Long Shot

3 Cappo D’Oro (Bet Now: $35.00) will appreciate firmer footing for Fred Kersley. He also comes through the Hyperion where he sat on speed and looked to travel well but as soon as he was asked for the big effort, the wheels were spinning and he couldn’t quite go on with it behind Gatting. Gets the ideal run from the draw and up to 2000m is a big tick for this gelding.

Race 5. (17:03) Ken Dyson 80th Birthday Handicap (1MW) 1300m

Back Me

Been a while since she has won but going the way of 5 Pearl Trade (Bet Now: $11.00). Alan Matthews trains this mare, who was unwanted in betting when resuming over 1200m here two weeks ago but despite having no friends in the market, she came with a very good finale despite wanting to lay in, running third to Distant Trilogy. Up to 1300m looks ideal, has the run under the belt…just hoping she can finally put it all together.

Danger

12 City Circle (Bet Now: $3.80) is a Neville Parnham trained filly who takes on the older horses after racing against the older horses over 1200m here two weeks ago on the bog track where not much went her way and she should have finished closer when fourth to Distant Trilogy. Little query at 1300m but from the good draw, she’ll get an economical run and is down in the weights.

Long Shot

I’m not sure there was any fluke about the win of 2 Distant Trilogy (Bet Now: $8.00) here two weeks ago. He might have started $20+, but his first up run behind State Attorney was good and he improved off that to record a pretty impressive win over 1200m here. Up to 1300m is no issue and it’s clear that his best is saved for tracks with give in it, which is what he gets once again.

Race 6. (17:38) Amelia Park Handicap (70+) 1600m

Back Me

3 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $2.70) to bounce back. He ran over 1300m here three weeks ago where he led but copped pressure and that pretty much put pay to his chances as Great Again was too good, with that horse running well in defeat last Saturday. Little bit of a query at the mile, but looks to lead for fun and if he does get to the front and get a cheap furlong or two, he’ll clearly take some running down.

Danger

There was a bit of a query as to how well 6 Lordhelpmerun (Bet Now: $2.80) was going but he put those fears to bed with a strong win over the 1400m here two weeks ago under a confident steer from Brodie Kirby, who rode him like he was the best horse in the race and that’s how it eventuated. Mile should be fine and now he’s found some form, he can go on with it.

Long Shot

8 Dark Prospect (Bet Now: $31.00) could be the blowout chance. Very good record at Belmont and third up from a spell, he should be ready. Ran over 1400m here last Saturday where he got too far back in the run and was never in the hunt behind stablemate War God. He has a really good stats third up and was an impressive third up winner at this track/distance last prep.

Race 7. (18:13) Doug Gardener Memorial Handicap (64+) 1400m

Back Me

9 Mulga (Bet Now: $31.00) is a son of Vital Equine that resumes. This six year old has only raced 19 times and has had serious injury troubles throughout his career which has held him back somewhat but he has showed enough talent at times to suggest he’s a city class horse. Resumes without a trial but has a touch of class and does have a good fresh record. Certainly one to watch.

Danger

2 Senorita Bonita (Bet Now: $11.00) is two weeks between runs for the Trevor Andrews stable when racing at this track/distance where she got the lovely sit just off the speed under McNaught and tried hard but just lacked the killer finale when fourth to Lordhelpmerun. Don’t think there is a horse of that class here, and she was a few weeks between runs that day so hopefully there’s room for improvement.

Long Shot

For wider multiples, I’d be including 10 Fancy Fox (Bet Now: $51.00). Hasn’t race for over two weeks since racing over 1400m at Pinjarra when just off the speed in the run and despite never being a winning threat she did make ground late. I think 1400m is a bridge too far for her so like her back to 1300m and overall, this doesn’t appear to be the strongest race going around, so a win wouldn’t totally shock.

Race 8. (18:50) Crown Perth Handicap (70+) 1200m

Back Me

16 Free Trade (Bet Now: $3.50) faces his toughest test to date, but is going about it the right way for Michael Lane. This bloke is a few weeks between runs since winning impressively over this track/distance in a race which has produced a couple of winners, including the above average filly Leading Girl. Harder here, but his recent trial here was very good and looks spot on for this.

Danger

8 Pym’s Royale (Bet Now: $7.50) is a very talented son of Husson for Peter Fernie that resumes. This Kalgoorlie based sprinter hasn’t raced since March 30 when pulling up with the thumps at Ascot behind River Dance. This time last year he was quite explosive in a couple of runs at this track and here he is, resuming without a trial. Definite yard and market watch.

Long Shot

1 Nikitas (Bet Now: $12.00) is two weeks between runs for the Williams camp after making his WA debut here where he had to chase a hot speed and not sure he was 100% happy on the bog track when fifth to Multiverse. Like him back on firmer footing, gets in well at the weights after the claim and draws to sit handy one again. Knockout chance at odds if the track is firmer.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Two Number 1 Deimos

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 Showmanship

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 9 Mulga

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 5, 10, 12

Leg Two: 1, 3, 6, 8

Leg Three: 2, 7, 9, 10, 12

Leg Four: 1, 5, 6, 8, 16

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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