29/5/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm, Kingsford Smith Cup day

The Brisbane Winter Carnival continues this Saturday with the next few weeks to have Eagle Farm as the centre stage, starting this weekend with a Group l double header of the Kingsford-Smith (1300m) and Queensland Derby (1300m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Kingsford Smith Cup 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Kingsford Smith Cup

Queensland Derby 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Queensland Derby

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6 Profit (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) can be hit and miss but his best is more than good enough to beat these. Quality four year old for Chris Anderson that resumes, having not raced since Magic Millions Day when down the track over 1800m behind a class mare in Paradee. He can sprint well fresh, loves Eagle Farm, and his recent trial was a nice piece of work.

1600m back to 1400m should be fine for 5 Luvoir (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS), who ran in the Members Handicap at Doomben last time out in what was a real sit/sprint affair. She was never a hope given where she was in the run, but liked the way she finished off. If she’s within range 400m out, she can win.

7 Safado (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is a Kris Lees trained gelding that rises a fair bit in depth but he’s racing well. Was keen on his chances last time out here but was a notable late drifter in betting. Nobody told the horse that as he came with a well timed run out wide to nab them in good style. Harder here, but he can sneak a first four spot.

9 Superium (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) is bursting to win one and I think he gets his chance here. Ran over 1350m at Doomben a fortnight back in an on pace dominated affair. No chance of winning given where he was in the run but loved the way he closed off when third to Axe. 1200m on the big track off a good speed looks ideal and he’s one of the hardest to beat.

8 Kordia (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) is a fascinating runner. James Cummings trained gelding that had one run in the Summer, which came on wet ground at Randwick where he was back in the run but never came on and was a flop behind Big Parade. Has had three trials to get ready for his return, and his best is more than good enough to beat these.

7 Dr Why Not (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) has been up a fair while but continues to race in such good form. That was the case at Doomben last start. He tried hard to wear down Axe but that horse had it too good on speed and was able to kick on. He ran last Saturday and was enormous in the BRC Sprint when third, so the form has been well and truly ticked off.

9 Ayrton (Bet Now: $1.65 TOP ODDS) is the last great hope for the three year olds this season against the older horses. A win here and he assures himself a Stradbroke berth. A defeat, and the balloon well and truly pops. It’s hard to know how good he is because he has been winning, running time and doing it with something in reserve. The times he has been running are good enough to win this but not a Stradbroke so if he is to win that Group l, he needs to make a statement here.

This looks a real target race for 11 Palladas (Bet Now: $51.00 TOP ODDS). Is third up here and he looks set to peak big time. Resumed here in horrendous conditions behind Georgie’s Pride, then went to Doomben and worked to the line strongly behind stablemate Glitter Strip. Track/distance winner and has that sense of timing.

1 Aim (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is hard to catch but his best is better than these I feel. Several weeks ago in the Hawkesbury Guineas, he worked home quite well late in the piece without threatening behind stablemate Exoboom in a good effort I thought. Hard fit now and he has the runs on the board to be dangerous.

8 Laure Me In (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is flying and despite the stable change, he can win again. Was with David Pfieffer and the last run for the stable came in the Scone Cup, where he swept home from the back and produced an electric finale to win nicely. He’ll eat up 1800m and has upside to come.

Can 7 Reloaded (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) go on with it? Took him forever to win another race but it came two weeks back at Doomben, with the ride from J Mac being the difference. He made sure the horse knew he was in the race, taking off 600m out, applying the pressure and sustained the run to win. Off that, 1800m should be fine.

10 The Candy Man (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) looks back on track. They have been racing in events which haven’t really suited him at all. First time he was in a race suited to him came two weeks ago at Doomben in the Chairmans Trophy. Looked the winner when presented but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Warning. Now he has found form, he’ll take beating.

I like 9 Lord Belvedere (Bet Now: $17.00) here. Was pretty keen on him when he raced three weeks ago in the Gold Coast Cup. Was wide no cover for the trip and was pretty brave I thought to stick on like he did when fourth to Alakahan. Gets firmer footing this time around and if he gets the rub of the green, he’ll take beating.

5 Carif (Bet Now: $20.00) is working up to something positive for sure. He ran three weeks back in the Gosford Cup. The tight track probably wasn’t his go, but he stuck to the task pretty well behind the very much in form Polly Grey, who won again last Saturday. 2400m on a big track looks an ideal set up for this guy.

13 Avion Fury (Bet Now: $61.00) can run a cheeky race here at odds. He had been bursting to win a race all prep and it finally came three weeks ago at Gosford. Lovely ride from McEvoy saw the gelding come with a well timed run out wide and prove too strong for Parry Sound, who went close in the Lord Mayors last Saturday, so the form reads well, and the rise to 2400m should be fine.

7 Ranch Hand (Bet Now: $8.00) looks the Waller horse for the JJ Atkins. Resumed a few weeks ago at the Gold Coast in the Ken Russell. Not sure he was entirely happy on the wet track at the Gold Coast but that said, when he burst through he looked the winner. Just nabbed on the peg. Dry track, bigger track, 1400m, he’ll take beating.

3 Prince Of Boom… (Bet Now: $3.90) just how good is he? The trainer has stated he could be his next Buffering…mind you he did say that about Rothfire before he got injured so that comparison might need to be taken with a grain of salt. But, he is a really nice horse. Debuted with a win at the Sunny Coast, then backed up six days later in the Spirit Of Boom and he spanked them. Off that, 1400m should be fine and he’s got the runs on the board compared to most of these.

5 Glenagles (Bet Now: $11.00) is progressing quite nicely for David Payne. 2/2 this time in, the latest win coming four weeks ago at Hawkesbury in the Clarendon when finishing best off the speed and defied a race shape. That race traditionally is a strong form reference for Brisbane and David Payne knows a thing or two.

A fourth Derby win here for 1 Explosive Jack (Bet Now: $2.60) and you could make a case for him being horse of the year. It’s been a remarkable six months for this horse and the way he spanked them in the SA Derby was just so impressive despite sitting three wide. He’s a rising star and I think he’ll win again.

9 Senor Toba (Bet Now: $5.50) is the only horse from the Rough Habit I want. He was outstanding in defeat I thought after getting a mile back in the run on a track where you can’t come from as far back as he did and win. He’ll eat up the Eagle Farm 2400m and the stable know a thing or two about getting them to fire for a major.

14 Fortified (Bet Now: $20.00) is a horse I’m wary of. He’s a progressive stayer for Chris Waller that has staying prowess and change up speed, which is such an ideal combo for these staying races. He looked in trouble at Ipswich last time but once he got the split, away he went and he was dominant. A win wouldn’t entirely shock with him.

$41+ for 7 So Si Bon (Bet Now: $21.00) I find crazy. I might be crazy putting him on top, but I think you just have to judge him on life with the Hayes/Dabernig team, and to be fair, he has been pretty good, and been far from disgraced for the most part at WFA. He runs well for Mark Zahra, he lands in a plum spot from the draw, he’ll be strong late…I just think he’s a great each way gamble.

A rock hard track looks absolutely perfect for 1 Trekking (Bet Now: $8.00). There have been some potting his two runs back. The two runs have come on wet tracks and the figures are there to say he doesn’t go anywhere near as good on wet ground compared to on top of it. He gets conditions to suit now for the first time this prep and is one of the hardest to beat.

16 Dame Giselle (Bet Now: $17.00) is a pure dry tracker so with conditions to suit, gee I think she can be dangerous here for Team Snowden. Freshened up since failing in the Arrowfield in what was an afterthought following the Coolmore Classic. Sprinting is her go, trial was good and she gets conditions to showcase her best.

It’s a dry track, so how can you go past 3 Sweet Deal (Bet Now: $4.50). She is just a different horse on dry ground and I think also, she is much more effective when trained as a 1200m-1400m horse. John Thompson has tried to stretch her brilliance, but if she is going to win a Group l, the Tatts Tiara will be that major, and I am confident she can get there via a win here.

18 Shaik (Bet Now: $17.00) is a quality filly for Team Hawkes that resumes. Hasn’t raced since Jan 30 when winning here and I do give a big tick to horses that go for a spell on a winning note. It is difficult to gauge the Poly trials at Warwick Farm but she looked to move quite well and should have won fresh last prep. Hard to beat.

11 Socialising (Bet Now: $31.00) is a knockout chance. Race shape was against her fresh in the Bright Shadow and while she was never really a winning threat, I liked the way she found the line late in the piece. Good second up record, fitter, and if she can sit closer in the run, I think she’ll be dangerous.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 9 Ayrton

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 3 Sweet Deal

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 So Si Bon

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 5, 7, 8

Leg Two: 1, 9

Leg Three: 1, 5, 7, 8, 16

Leg Four: 3

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