A strong eight race card will be run and won at Ladbrokes Park Hillside on Monday. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is out twelve metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:30) : The Grand Hotel Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Haradafull (Best Odds: $11.00) looks the great overs in the race. He is a quality animal for Ciaron Maher who resumes here off the back of a couple of handy trials and jump outs. He will get back but will charge home hard late.
Big Danger: 9 Recalculate (Best Odds: $2.80) is a potential Stakes horse who has been impressive in two outings this time in, starting off on Colac Cup Day before going to Ballarat and repeating the dose. Down on the minimum and Oliver remains on.
Roughie: 2 Star Fortune (Best Odds: $4.60) was given a lovely ride to win last time out at Morphettville, beating home Tycoon Queen, who has been one of the form gallopers in SA. Looks the leader here and leaders have been favoured at this track recently.
Race Two (14:00) : Toronado @ Swettenham Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 3 Motown Lil (Best Odds: $2.50) is a handy youngster for the Smerdon camp who has some really good form behind her without winning. Looked very sharp in a recent jump out and only needs luck from the gate to go close here.
Big Danger: 17 Blue Ocean (Best Odds: $8.50) is a Coolmore filly on debut for the Freedman camp. Looked to go well in a recent Flemington jump out and Melham rides this one, so I’ll respect that fact. Definite threat I think.
Roughie: 7 Ariaz (Best Odds: $10.00) debuts here for the Griffiths stable. No public trials, and drawn wide, but stable doesn’t mind throwing up a handy youngster so I’d watch the market and see if there is any push.
Race Three (14:30) : The Cove Hotel Plate 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Prescience (Best Odds: $1.60) looks the way to go. He ran in a benchmark race at the Valley last time out and closed off hard from near last to run second to Global Assault. Only has to repeat that to beat these.
Roughie: 12 Electric Aura (Best Odds: $6.50) drops in grade after contesting the Tasmanian Oaks last time out when running a close up third to Chabaud. Freshened up and though better suited over further, she should be around the mark.
Roughie: 11 Nakataan (Best Odds: $7.50) resumed at Pakenham a couple of weeks back and closed off nicely behind impressive winner Freedoms. Form prior was very sharp and should relish the step up to the mile.
Race Four (15:00) : Polytrack Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Lily Dazzler (Best Odds: $14.00) looks the wrong odds, perhaps crazy odds at $26. She has contested a couple of stakes races this time in, the latest at Flemington behind Wawail. Purely at the price, im putting her on top.
Big Danger: 9 Solar Burst (Best Odds: $4.60) resumed under the lights at Cranbourne a couple of weeks back and closed off strongly when second to Prussian Vixen. This isn’t a strong race, so natural improvement should see her figure.
Roughie: 11 Claudia Jean (Best Odds: $7.00) ran fourth in that Prussian Vixen race and she was alright in defeat after sitting just off the speed. Wide gate is the issue, but she carries no weight and gets the services of Regan Bayliss.
Race Five (15:30) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (64) 1300m:
Back Me: 1 Hard Call (Best Odds: $4.40) is a talented galloper for the Salanitri yard who resumed at Ballarat and closed off strongly behind Recalculate, who will go around as a serious winning chance in the opener. Draws wide, but the claim for Ben Allen is a big tick and just needs luck to be a major contender.
Big Danger: 9 Iamhere (Best Odds: $7.00) didn’t look comfortable on the wet track last time out under the lights at Cranbourne when finishing down the track behind Prussian Vixen. Weight relief and a firmer track should see her show sharp improvement.
Roughie: 5 Roman Fizz (Best Odds: $17.00) ran over 1400m on the Lakeside track last time out and warmed to the task late when running fifth to the talented Ma Jones. Back to 1300m and a better should see him prove tough to hold out.
Race Six (16:00) : Ladbrokes Cash In Handicap (64) 1500m:
Back Me: 5 Quedoutes (Best Odds: $7.00) hasn’t raced for 60 days since failing badly at Ballarat. Was due to run last Wednesday but was a late scratching behind the barriers. On his best form, he’d beat these, but is hard to trust. Still, I’ll give him a chance.
Big Danger: 2 Surge Ahead (Best Odds: $9.00) attempted to lead all the way last time out at the Valley and gave a really good kick but just felt the pinch late to run third to Global Assault. Only has to repeat that effort here to go close.
Roughie: 11 Swiftly Red (Best Odds: $11.00) ran over 1400m on the Lakeside track last time out and just gave away too much start behind Must Be Mink. If she can overcome that here, she is a definite winning chance.
Race Seven (16:30) : Browns Sawdust & Shavings Handicap (64) 1300m:
Back Me: 9 Turfonic (Best Odds: $9.00) has been given a month freshen up since debuting at Kilmore where he settled last in the run and produced a brilliant turn of foot to get the job done. Harder here, but there is a lot to like about him and just has enormous upside.
Big Danger: 13 Little Indian (Best Odds: $9.00) resumed under the lights at Cranbourne and chased hard when second to Moral Outrage. Fitter here, and we have seen in the past she can perform well at this level and higher.
Roughie: 7 Pearl Star (Best Odds: $9.00) resumed at Ballarat and looked a touch flat footed on the turn but she picked up strongly to run second to Stella The Boss. She had really good form when last in work and strikes a very winnable race.
Race Eight (17:00) : Le Pines Funerals Handicap (70) 1800m:
Back Me: 11 Spur On Gold (Best Odds: $14.00) resumed over 1400m on the Lakeside course first up and worked home well from the back behind Ma Jones. Best form is over further, but he is talented and can charge home if they go silly in front.
Big Danger: I didn’t mind 2 Global Assault (Best Odds: $9.00) at the Valley last time out but I thought my ticket was confetti when he was stuck wide no cover on speed but he just kept finding and kicked on strongly to win. Can only see upside and he looks the one to beat.
Roughie: 5 The Terricks (Best Odds: $10.00) produced a lovely finish to win first up at Pakenham before racing at Ladbrokes Park when running a close up sixth to Transfer Allowance, who has form around Tom Melbourne, so that reads well and I like he has been given a 40 day freshen up.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Hard Call
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 9 Turfonic
VALUE: Race Eight Number 11 Spur On Gold
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 7, 8, 11
Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 13
Leg Four: 2, 5, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13
$50 Investment= 2.48% of the dividend if successful
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