The Oakbank Carnival wraps up on Monday with a cracking program, highlighted by the Great Eastern (4950m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit
Race One (13:25) : Triple M Country Cup (82) 1900m:
Back Me: 4 Pretty Blonde (Best Odds: $8.00) is a handy stayer that is heading towards a possible trip to Alice Springs/Darwin. She ran in the Broken Hill Cup last Saturday and ran a tidy fifth. Looks better placed here and will take some beating with luck.
Big Danger: 5 Saturday Sorcerer (Best Odds: $2.00) ran third over 1800m at Morphettville a tick over three weeks back and tried hard behind the handy Victorian stayed Adirondack. Significantly easier here and should just about take care of this lot.
Roughie: 10 Umaluka (Best Odds: $14.00) ran over the mile at Strathalbyn last time out and did a power of work on speed so his effort to finish fourth was pretty good I thought. If he can get a softer trip here he will take some holding out.
Race Two (14:04) : Coca Cola Handicap (64) 1050m:
Back Me: 4 Viddora (Best Odds: $2.30) resumed in a strong race at the Valley behind Stellar Collision before racing at Morphettville on Adelaide Cup Day and was wide no cover throughout. Just need better luck to be ultra competitive here.
Big Danger: 3 Moral Outrage (Best Odds: $5.50) is a Hayes/Dabernig galloper that jumps the border after stringing together two wins, the latest at Cranbourne. Harder here, but previous is strong enough to go close here.
Roughie: 2 Brooklyn (Best Odds: $6.50) had his first run for the Balfour camp on the Parks track and closed off nicely behind Shaf. With natural improvement here, he can figure in the finish for sure and stable is going very well.
Race Three (14:39) : Somerled Hurdle 3600m:
Back Me: 2 Now And Zen (Best Odds: $1.60) has the Weir polish on him and enormous upside. He ran over 3000m at Ladbrokes Park where he sat on speed and fought on very well. He has a really good record over the sticks and gets the services of John Allen.
Big Danger: 1 Urban Explorer (Best Odds: $8.50) is the class factor given he is a feature race winner over the sticks. He ran over 2900m here over the jumps a couple of weeks back behind stablemate About The Journey, who was game in defeat on the weekend. Pateman rides and his class will carry him a long way.
Roughie: 4 Agreement (Best Odds: $10.00) is a stablemate of About The Journey who makes the trip over after winning a jumps race at the Bool last time out, and though he wasn’t as impressive as his stablemate, he won nonetheless. He can figure here.
Race Four (15:14) : Sidewood Handicap (70) 2150m:
Back Me: 1 Banksters Bonus (Best Odds: $3.20) had his first run for Tony McEvoy on the Parks track and was very impressive in winning. I can only see upside and despite the lofty impost, he is the one to beat.
Big Danger: 5 Spanish Halo (Best Odds: $6.00) ran second to Banksters Bonus in that same race mentioned above and he tried very hard in defeat. He meets the winner 5.5kg better off here, so it wouldn’t shock me if he turned the tables.
Roughie: 7 Whincup (Best Odds: $21.00) resumed over 1700m at Geelong and worked home alright late behind Canna. He has looked sharp in several jumps trials, so I suspect he will need this, but his flat form is good enough to be competitive here.
Race Five (15:50) : Harcourt Adelaide Hills Handicap (64) 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Orange River (Best Odds: $4.80) hasn’t raced for nearly a month since running a game second to the above average Cocklebiddy at Pakenham, beaten narrowly. That horse has since gone on to run well in town and now Orange Rivers gets the services of Michelle Payne.
Big Danger: 8 Flask (Best Odds: $5.50) comes right into the mix after spanking her rivals last time out over 1350m at Strathalbyn, winning by five lengths. Harder here, but there was a lot to like about that win and she has been well found in the market.
Roughie: 5 Tunisia Traveller (Best Odds: $11.00) had a good stint in Victoria before coming back home, where she ran fourth before backing up seven days later on the Parks track where she recorded a pretty decent win. No reason why she can’t repeat the dose here.
Race Six (16:34) : The Advertiser Handicap (64) 1050m:
Back Me: 11 Lockdown Jack (Best Odds: $5.50) looks a good price at around the $8 mark. He hasn’t raced for 40 days since being completely luckless behind Shelby Apples, who has run well since so the form reads well. Draws wide, bug should get back anyway and charge late.
Big Roughie: 14 Chondra (Best Odds: $6.00) resumes here for the Barry a Brook yard. Hasn’t done a great deal in some time, but this is the easiest race it has contested in a long time and gets the services of Paul Gatt.
Roughie: 13 Royal Mint (Best Odds: $6.00) ran here a couple of weeks back and closed off strongly from the back to record quite an impressive win. Stable/jockey combination are lethal when paired up and don’t be worried by the wide gate because the gelding will get back anyway.
Race Seven (17:14) : Thomas Foods International Great Eastern Steeplechase 4950m:
Back Me: 1 Lord Of The Song (Best Odds: $2.80) was really solid in defeat I thought on Saturday. He looked to have enormous upside after that and he is a horse who will just eat up the extra trip. Very keen on him.
Big Danger: 2 Thubiaan (Best Odds: $3.20) pulled his head off on Saturday as the short priced elect and that cost him dearly at the end as he really had nothing left for the straight behind Nishiazabu. With better racing manners, I am confident he can turn the tables and be a strong threat.
Roughie: 6 Mannertone (Best Odds: $13.00) is a ripper for Anne McGrath. He ran well on the flat two back before coming here a couple of weeks back when running a distant third but pulled up with heat stress, so there were excuses. He can measure up for sure here and is a knockout hope.
Race Eight (17:52) : MAC Drink Driving? GROW UP Handicap (70) 1400m:
Back Me: I thought 2 Mihany (Best Odds: $2.80) was a good thing last time out on the Parks track but he let me down badly when he could only manage fourth to Ferrari Star. Blinkers go on now and Neilson rides, so he gets another chance…but only one more.
Big Danger: 9 Loqueteux (Best Odds: $9.00) has a really poor winning strike rate and that probably undersells his potential. He ran over 1550m on the Parks track last time out and closed off strongly from the back when running a close up sixth to Moss Go Now. Back to 1400m is no issue and is a definite winning threat.
Roughie: 10 Edit (Best Odds: $15.00) was a strong winner first up at Strathalbyn before racing there again and running second to Flask, who goes around earlier in the program as a live chance. Draws terribly, but has ability and if any rain comes, he comes right into calculations.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Lord Of The Song
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Orange River
VALUE: Race One Number 4 Pretty Blonde
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8
Leg Two: 3, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Leg Three: Field
Leg Four: 2, 3, 9, 10
$50 Investment= 4.96% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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