A strong card of racing has been assembled for Rosehill on Saturday, where the feature race is the $150,000 Listed Festival Stakes (1500m), an important lead up to the Villiers. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:40) : International Animal Health Plate 1100m:
Back Me: I’m going with Sinopia (Best Odds: $4.80). This Gerald Ryan first starter by Dream Ahead looked sharp in his barrier trial placing here on November 10, and the time wa sharp. Stable is known for their very good record with their youngsters.
Big Danger: Taj Mahal (Best Odds: $4.50) ran third in that trial Sinopia ran second in, and he went about his business quite nicely. Stable is also going well with their youngsters and this bloke is very well bred, so watch market moves.
Roughie: Attention (Best Odds: $6.00) is a first starter for Team Snowden who has looked pretty good in a couple of barrier trials, the latest coming here on November 10 when second to Bomonti. Stable is going well with their youngsters so watch market moves.
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Race Two (13:20) : Tyreel Stud ATC Cup 2000m:
Back Me: Telepathic (Best Odds: $1.60) just looks the one here. Couldn’t have been ridden better by Rory Hutchings when winning over 1500m here a fortnight back. Up to 2000m is ideal and now she gets much needed weight relief, plus the extra trip will only be beneficial.
Big Danger: Vilanova (Best Odds: $9.00) ran over 1900m here two weeks ago where he plugged away strongly to run third to Bring Luck, beaten five lengths. Firmer track should help, as should McEvoy jumping back on, because he rides the horse well.
Roughie: Lucky Lucky Lucky (Best Odds: $9.00) ran a bad fifth in that 1900m race mentioned above, where he just simply didn’t handle the wet track, so forget he went around. He has upside and is suited at this trip. Knockout chance for sure.
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Race Three (13:55) : Watagan Grange Handicap (73) 1200m:
Back Me: Ghisoni (Best Odds: $2.50) made her long awaited debut a couple of weeks back at Warwick Farm where she sat on speed and proved far too good for her rivals, winning quite easily. Tipping the form out of that race to hold up, and the stable did rate this horse as a Slipper contender before injury and immaturity struck. The one to beat for sure.
Big Danger: Sacred Surfer (Best Odds: $9.00) is a very interesting runner. Chris Waller runner who was formerly with Tony Pike who has had one career start, back on October 21 at Te Rapa where he was dominant in winning. Recent trial here on Tuesday was strong in a hot heat and the fact he has been sent over from New Zealand tells me this horse is well above average.
Roughie: Stoker (Best Odds: $9.50) sat outside a hot speed last start here and kicked on very strongly, and was bloused late by We’re Sure, who ran well without setting the world on fire last weekend. Gate one now so he should get a soft trip behind the tempo.
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Race Four (14:30) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1500m:
Back Me: High Opinion (Best Odds: $4.80) was one of the runs of the day here a fortnight back when making up a stack of ground from near last to run fourth to Dashie de Luxe, beaten just over two lengths. The rise to 1500m is perfect and he looks the one with upside here plus the talent to beat these.
Big Danger: Royal Jackpot (Best Odds: $12.00) finished seventh behind Dashie de Luxe and he just didn’t really let down on the bog track, so he can be forgiven I think. He is only third up here, so there should be upside and he does have form around Artlee, which reads well for a race like this.
Roughie: Bank On Henry (Best Odds: $13.00) loved the bog track on Snake Gully Cup Day at Gundagai and romped clear for a dominant win, albeit against much easier company. Matthew Cahill could have easily had a full book of rides at Wellington today but instead he comes to Rosehill for just one ride- this one, so I am going to respect him.
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Race Five (15:05) : The HQ Of Insurance Starlight Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: That’s A Good Idea (Best Odds: $3.10) looks extremely hard to beat here. Quality galloper for Team Snowden who hasn’t raced since finishing a close second to stablemate Dothraki in the Lightning (1000m) at Randwick. Freshened up, and a recent Randwick trial was fantastic. Just looks so well placed here against this lot.
Big Danger: Dublin Lass (Best Odds: $2.30) is a stablemate of the top tip resumed down the straight on Oaks Day where she looked home but was nabbed in the last couple of strides by Pittsburgh Flyer. Bit harder here, but gate one and is a dead set dry tracker.
Roughie: Fiftyshadesofgrey (Best Odds: $10.00) is on the back up once again, but now she is backing up in winning form after a super win last Saturday over this track/distance. Hardest test to date here, but she is on the minimum and McDonald sticks.
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Race Six (15:45) : Goldners Horse Transport Handicap (85) 1200m:
Back Me: I Am Zelady (Best Odds: $4.80) resumed here over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and just did too much work in front, pulling hard and racing too fresh when fourth to Typhoon Jolie. That should take the edge off her, fitter, and she looks extremely hard to beat.
Big Danger: Slots (Best Odds: $15.00) took care of a small field last start at Canterbury, but it was against the boys and she did show a lovely turn of foot when asked for the effort. Grant Marshall has found a lovely race for here I think now, back to her own sex. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Latin Salsa (Best Odds: $26.00) will appreciate getting some weight relief after running well last time out at Warwick Farm with 60kg. Drops 5kg here, draws well and for mine, she is a definite improver here at odds in what looks a tough race to sort out.
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Race Seven (16:25) : Bedford CA Handicap (85) 1500m:
Back Me: Happy Clapper (Best Odds: $3.80) for me here. He was fantastic when resuming over 1200m at Randwick five weeks back, charging home from off the speed for an outstanding first up win. Has since trialled at Randwick and looked sharp in winning that. He’ll be even better on top of the ground also.
Big Danger: Lofiel (Best Odds: $4.80) was given a lovely ride by Jess Taylor to win here last time out at Canterbury, running along in front and kicking on strongly for a determined win. Has since trialled and went nicely behind Happy Clapper, who I like in the Festival. Tumbles big time in weight and she does look the leader. Will take some beating.
Roughie: Role Model (Best Odds: $8.00) resumed over 1200m here a fortnight back and stuck to the task quite gamely when running third to Typhoon Jolie, beaten a length. Her second up record isn’t too flash, but overall she is a talented mare who will be suited up to 1500m and is definitely a leading contender.
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Race Eight (17:05) : Sky Thoroughbred Central Festival Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: Heart Testa (Best Odds: $21.00) is a very gallant campaigner who is a stablemate of She’s Clean. Ran over 1350m here last start and looked to be absolutely bolting in the run but as soon as the button was pressed, the wheels were spinning and he had to settle for fourth to Zanbagh. Little query on him running 1500m, but the big key here is getting him on a firmer surface.
Big Danger: Frespanol (Best Odds: $4.60) stepped back to the 1350m here from the mile where he tried hard, but was bloused late by the surprise winner Zanbagh, who did have specking in the market. Meets Zanbagh 2kg better off, so I am confident he can turn the tables, especially on top of the ground.
Roughie: Peace Force (Best Odds: $10.00) could be an improver at odds. She ran well first up behind Nayeli before going to a 1400m mares race on Cup Day at Flemington when finishing behind Scarlet Billows. Back on her home track should be ideal, and a recent Warwick Farm trial was quite encouraging.
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Race Nine (17:45) : Ranvet Handicap (85) 1200m:
Back Me: Mohave (Best Odds: $6.50) resumes here for Godolphin. He last ran came in July at Flemington when finishing fifth in the Creswick Final behind Illustrious Lad, who ran well last Saturday at Ballarat. Two trials leading in have been pretty good and he has won a race and placed in another three from five previous first up attempts.
Big Danger: Religify (Best Odds: $3.80) had the right run in transit when resuming here a few weeks back, and duly saluted. He was on the worst part of the track though, so that does add merit to the performance. He is a very good horse at his best, and with the run under the belt now, two things could happen now. He will go on with it or go backwards after a brilliant first up win.
Roughie: Crooked Blaze (Best Odds: $11.00) is a talented galloper for Leon Davies who resumed at Doomben and was close up when fifth to Selfie, beaten less than a length. Much harder here, but he is a Stakes performer from last prep, draws well and in form apprentice takes over.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 8 Mohave
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Happy Clapper
VALUE: Race Four Number 6 Royal Jackpot
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 7, 8, 9, 11, 13
Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 6, 10
Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg Four: 5, 8, 9, 13
$50 Investment= 8.33% of the dividend if successful.
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