A strong card of racing will be run and won at Moonee Valley on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:00) : John Paraskevas Plate 1000m:
Back Me: Key Evidence (Best Odds: $8.00) debuts here for Robert Smerdon after a smart trial win recently at Cranbourne where she sat back in the four horse field before rounding up her three rivals and winning with ease. Smerdon also nominated Instant Action but elects to stick with Key Evidence here, so I think that’s the lead.
Big Danger: Vegas Strip (Best Odds: $6.00) is a first starter for Mick Price who has also shown some promise at the Caulfield jump outs. Bred to be handy early, and based on the jump outs, she is showing those signs.
Roughie: Gold Emblem (Best Odds: $8.00) is a first starter for Gai who didn’t look too bad when working at this track on Tuesday morning and looked to handle it well. Jump outs have also been encouraging, so he should prove hard to beat.
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Race Two (13:35) : McMahon’s Dairy Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: Faatinah (Best Odds: $3.80) was given a month freshen up before running down the Flemington straight on Cup Day where he ran well but just died on the run late when fourth to Invincible Heart. Should take good improvement from that and though she is a month between runs here also, the step up to 1200m is perfect and the sire is one of the in form sires at the moment.
Roughie: Niccoco (Best Odds: $10.00) resumed over this distance at Morphettville and looked quite impressive in getting the job done there. His three runs in New South Wales prior were very good, and the first up run justified the thought he is above average, and I like the fact the stable has sent him to Melbourne.
Big Danger: Les Darci (Best Odds: $11.00) scored a strong win against the bias at this track/distance two back before racing over 1400m on Stakes Day at Flemington where he found the class a bit rich when seventh to Palentino, who looks a potential Group l winner. Back to 1200m and down in grade suits. This is his first prep though so there is a query on what’s left in the locker.
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Race Three (14:10) : WeDrive.com.au Your Car Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Liten Prinsessa (Best Odds: $3.10) is on the quick back up from last Saturday at Ballarat where she ran a beauty against the pattern when fourth to A Lotta Love. She won brilliantly at this track/distance start prior, and Dwayne Dunn takes the ride.
Big Danger: Sino Eagle (Best Odds: $7.00) is a talented mare that resumes for Peter Moody. She hasn’t missed a place in five first up runs, including three wins, and her recent jump outs have been quite encouraging.
Roughie: Whistle Baby (Best Odds: $6.50) is a talented mare that resumes for the Ellerton/Zahra team. Hasn’t raced since June when racing behind Jessy Belle, and that mare has run well at the highest level this Spring, so the form reads well. Jump outs have been encouraging and she can run well fresh.
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Race Four (14:45) : Slickpix Handicap (90) 2500m:
Back Me: Spur On Gold (Best Odds: $19.00) ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and didn’t quite handle the track it seemed when third to Master Zephyr. He looked lost around the turns, but he balanced up in the straight and worked home well. Now that he has got the run under the belt around the track, he should be better off and prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Master Zephyr (Best Odds: $2.50) was given a 12/10 from Rawiller to win over this track/distance, beating home Spur On Gold in the race mentioned above. He has a stack of upside left in him and the stable is near unbeatable at the moment.
Roughie: Red Fella (Best Odds: $14.00) drops big time in grade after running in the Bart Cummings Tribute (2800m) on Cup Day at Flemington where he found the line nicely late when running sixth to De Little Engine, who ran well without luck in the Sandown Cup (3200m). His record at the track is suspect, but it’s hard to ignore his last start effort.
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Race Five (15:25) : Strathmore FC 2005 Premiers Handicap (70) 1600m:
Back Me: Going with Mihalic (Best Odds: $3.00). She was excellent when running in the Twilight Glow (1400m) a fortnight back where she finished off her race very strongly to run second to Indarra. She is a talented filly who finds a very thin race. Just has to hold her form and she’ll go very close here.
Big Danger: Unbreakable (Best Odds: $6.00) took on the older horses over 1400m at Kilmore three weeks back where he sat off the speed before peeling out and he just pounced, winning with ridiculous ease. Harder here, but I always like three year olds that beat the older horses, and do it emphatically. Should be noted that it was the fastest time of the three 1400m races run on that program.
Roughie: Kerauno (Best Odds: $21.00) scored a strong debut win at Donald before going to Morphettville Parks where he wasn’t suited by the on pace bias when fourth to the above average Yoenis. Should be better off here, and there is no doubting his ability.
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Race Six (16:05) : Ranvet Handicap (78) 1600m:
Back Me: Finding it hard to tip against Club Star (Best Odds: $2.40) here. He is unbeaten in two runs this time in, the latest coming on Kyneton Cup Day over 1400m where he just spanked his rivals and won with ridiculous ease. Should have no trouble with the mile and looks the clear horse to beat. Looks one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Golden Mane (Best Odds: $5.50) resumed on Cup Day over 1400m and wasn’t too bad I thought behind Malaguerra, who franked the form by winning again on Stakes Day. Golden Mane has a terrible second up record, but he has been well supported in betting and should get every chance from gate one.
Roughie: Vintage Lad (Best Odds: $26.00) resumed under the Cranbourne lights a tick over three weeks back and worked home strongly late behind Just Magical, beaten just under three lengths. That was his first run since February, so there is a stack of upside and he has won second up previously.
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Race Seven (16:45) : City Jeep Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: I really like Straturbo (Best Odds: $5.50) here. He is a talented horse for Gary Portelli who comes to Melbourne off the back of a very sharp trial win at Rosehill where he showed great early toe and bolted up, beating home several handy types. He has run well here before and flies fresh, so I am tipping him to be wound up big time for a first up win.
Big Danger: Grane (Best Odds: $8.50) has contested a couple of 955m races here at his last two starts, the latest resulting in a fourth to Trevinder, beaten just under two lengths after getting slightly held up on the turn. I think up to 1000m is perfect and he will be suited by the hot tempo.
Roughie: Celeritas (Best Odds: $18.00) is another that will be suited by the fast speed. She resumed against the mares at this track/distance a couple of weeks back and worked home strongly late when third to It’s Poets Day. Takes on the big boys now, but gets serious weight relief and that first up run was just too good to dismiss.
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Race Eight (17:25) : 1Print Handicap (90) 1500m:
Back Me: Sea Spray (Best Odds: $3.50) worked home well a couple of weeks back at Bendigo when back in the run before running fourth to Dan Zephyr, beaten just under two lengths. Big lead here for mine is that D Oliver takes the ride.
Big Danger: Ample On Offa (Best Odds: $7.50) is a visitor from Adelaide who scored a strong win last time out on the Parks track, aided by a brilliant steer from Emily Finnegan, who retains the ride in what is likely her Melbourne debut in the saddle. Draws well and is beautifully weighted.
Roughie: Winston Drive (Best Odds: $9.50) had no impact at all from the back last time out under the lights at Cranbourne when finishing last to Just Magical. She is much better than that, and the little break between runs could spark her, and who am I to doubt Darren Weir.
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Race Nine (18:00) : William Hill Handicap (90) 1200m:
Back Me: I’ll give Tudor (Best Odds: $8.50) another chance here. Just forget he went around on Oaks Day behind The Quarterback given it was a heavy track and he just didn’t look comfortable at all on the surface. His run here prior behind Reldas was excellent and that horse franked the form during Cup Week. Looks a great each-way chance.
Big Danger: Mandla (Best Odds: $8.50) was scratched from Ballarat on Saturday where he looked a leading chance. Instead runs here and his form looks pretty good, with his last start effort being over this distance on Cup Day at Flemington where he ran well behind Sea Lord. Good record at the track an Oliver jumps on.
Roughie: Taddei Tondo (Best Odds: $12.00) scored a big win with a big weight two back at Bendigo before going to the Kevin Heffernan (1300m) where he was just not suited by the slow tempo at all behind Famous Seamus. Should be a more genuine tempo here, and he does have a booming finish on him under the right circumstances.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 7 Straturbo
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 7 Sea Spray
VALUE: Race Six Number 6 Vintage Lad
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6, 9, 11, 14
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 12
Leg Three: 3, 6, 7, 8
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10
$50 Investment= 4.96% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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