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A strong card of racing has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday where it is Belgravia Stakes Day. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (15:58) Seacorp Handicap (72+) 2200m

Back Me

7 Sonnen (Bet Now: $3.20) on top in a rather uninspiring race to kick off the meeting. This Stephen Miller trained stayer ran over 2000m at Bunbury a fortnight back where he was given a sweet ride under Brad Parnham and loomed large to win the race but just found the in form Danehills Daughter too tough. Finds an easier race here I feel and looks the safe play.

Danger

8 Trap For Fools (Bet Now: $3.80) also comes through that same Bunbury program. This Lindsey Smith trained galloper ran over the mile where he sat on speed under Tayla Stone and gave a really good kick but was outpointed late by First Affair. Maps really well here and with only 51kg on his back, he’ll take some catching.

Long Shot

3 Outlaw Pete (Bet Now: $21.00) comes through the Danehills Daughter race mentioned above. He had the suck run behind the speed under Kate Whitten and looked to travel well. Had trouble getting clear and by the time he did, those around had full momentum. Kersley takes over now and with the wide gate, he will get every chance.

Race 2. (16:40) Glenroy Chaff Handicap (66+) 1000m

Back Me

I think 2 Floyd (Bet Now: $1.55) is the most intriguing runner on the program. We know how good he is and this prep will tell us just how good. Hasn’t raced for four weeks since giving them windburn over the short course at Belmont. Holds a nom for the Winterbottom so if he is to head that way, he has to be putting this field away.

Danger

7 Celebrity Dream (Bet Now: $4.20) is a quality mare for the Durrant team who resumed in a solid ratings race at Geraldton and under a patient ride Chris Parnham, the mare came with a well timed run out wide and proved too good. She has been a bit costly when coming to town before, but now she’s older and more mature, she should be fine.

Long Shot

6 Pop Hero (Bet Now: $46.00) ran over the Belmont 1000m three weeks back and I thought his effort behind Sallorsci was tidy. Just lacked the turn of foot when they sprinted but he stuck on well to be beaten under three lengths. Should get the suck run from the good draw and is a must for exotics for sure IMHO.

Race 3. (17:25) Tabtouch Plate 1500m

Back Me

She looks very good does 10 Showcase (Bet Now: $1.55). Filly for the Williams camp who ran over 1200m at Belmont a tick over three weeks back where she had a nice sit off the pace but just got left standing when they dashed. The really good sign was that she picked up and surged late to win. Has the makings of a really good one and I’m confident on her here.

Danger

4 Come Play With Me (Bet Now: $8.00) is a very promising gelding for the Durrant team who ran over the mile at Northam last Wednesday where he got back in the run and was off the bit before the turn, but once he got going and got the cutaway, he dashed and put them away in a couple of strides. Has the makings of a Derby horse for the Autumn, and has that look about him that screams class/quality.

Long Shot

9 Crystal Valley (Bet Now: $14.00) is the fresh blood but she’s talented for sure. Ran over 1400m at Belmont a tick over two weeks back and was given a lovely ride off the pace under Troy Turner before peeling on the turn and showing a lovely turn of foot to put them away. On that effort, no dramas with 1500m and she has upside.

Race 4. (18:05) Ambius Indoor Plants Handicap (1MW) 1600m

Back Me

9 Almaster (Bet Now: $4.20) looks the one with upside here to beat them. Debuted a tick under a fortnight back over 1300m at Geraldton where she got a mile back in the run before Chris Parnham presented her to the outside and though she took her time, I loved her final 100m where she really surged and wanted the win. She can measure up here.

Danger

2 Star Value (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Dan O’Connor trained gelding in ripping form at the moment. He is three weeks between runs since racing over the 1400m at Belmont where he sat 1/1 throughout before Newman peeled him to the outside and he really dug in against the seasoned campaigners to win. Draws a touch awkwardly here, but hard to knock the way he is going.

Long Shot

3 Toppa Dawozza (Bet Now: $23.00) is looking for further I suspect but he has been solid in two runs back from a break. Ran over the 1675m at Bunbury two weeks ago and was one paced but stuck on pretty well in defeat behind First Affair. He does tend to save his best for Ascot and I could entertain him as a multiples contender.

Race 5. (18:45) Mumm Champagne Handicap (72+) 1200m

Back Me

11 Gunnago (Bet Now: $2.20) is a promising four year old that resumes for Jason Pateman after an outstanding Winter, which was plagued by wet tracks, which is something this horse doesn’t like. Resumes with no trials, but on the minimum and the stable finds Pike fresh, which is a very good lead for mine to suggest he’s ready to go.

Danger

8 Blitzem Sunday (Bet Now: $9.50) is a gelding that is absolutely flying at the moment for the Gavin Foster team. He is three weeks between runs since bolting up over the 1000m at Belmont under a lovely ride off the pace from Andrew Castle. He remains on, right down in the weights, draws sweetly…ticks a few boxes.

Long Shot

4 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $17.00) could be the big improver here. I thought he ran really well here last Saturday when working home strongly from the back to run fourth to a serious Winterbottom contender in State Solicitor. He does save his best for Ascot, he’s hard fit now and he will be very strong. A must include.

Race 6. (19:20) Iron Jack Belgravia Stakes 1200m

Back Me

She rises in depth on her last start but I am quite keen here on 9 Perfect Jewel (Bet Now: $3.40). She resumed over 1200m at York where she was midfield, wide with no cover for the trip, yet ambled to the front under Pike and won with plenty in reserve, and ran slashing time. Looks highly promising and I’ll be shocked if she doesn’t measure up.

Danger

2 Epic Grey (Bet Now: $6.00) had six weeks off prior to racing in the Bunbury Classic a fortnight ago where he had a lovely sit off the pace and loomed large to win but just found the talented mare Ocean Jewel too good. I think he will be much better suited at 1200m and now he has had the hard run under the belt, he’ll be better off.

Long Shot

10 Truly Belong (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Showcasing filly for the Adam Durrant team who made her Australian debut over 1000m at Belmont a tick over three weeks back and she made quite the impression. Got back, looked disinterested, but once she put her mind to it, gee she was impressive. Pike chooses Perfect Jewel, but this girl is right in it for mine.

Race 7. (19:55) My Rentokil Handicap (1MW) 1200m

Back Me

14 La Mouline (Bet Now: $2.50) has had three runs in Australia and has been quite impressive every time she has stepped out. First run was back in February when winning a maiden over 1400m here. Tipped out and resumed over 1200m at Belmont where she ran a narrow second to stablemate Showcase before going to Geraldton where she looked a good thing on paper and won accordingly. She can measure up here.

Danger

10 Vital Dancer (Bet Now: $5.00) is an above average gelding for the Brett Pope stable who resumed at Bunbury a fortnight back and defied a betting drift to score a sharp win in a race which had good depth to it. Taking on the older horses here which isn’t easy, but he showed fresh that he can handle it successfully.

Long Shot

11 Bold Success (Bet Now: $6.50) is a gelding that resumes for Team Williams. This bloke raced twice and he let the punters down both times at relatively short quotes. Saves his best for when produced fresh and his Lark Hill trial last Monday was very good, plus the addition of Blinkers for the first time looks a big tick.

Race 8. (20:30) Guinness Handicap (72) 1400m

Back Me

7 Final Salute (Bet Now: $3.90) is a talented son of Not A Single Doubt for the Durrant team who ran over 1400m at Bunbury a fortnight back and I thought his effort was super in defeat behind Miki Two Toes. Just lacked that final finishing burst required. That run should bring him given that was his first outing in three weeks.

Danger

3 Key To Fame (Bet Now: $8.00) also comes through that Bunbury race on by Miki Two Toes. He attempted to lead all the way under Aaron Mitchell and did give a good kick but was outgunned late and ran a close up sixth. I think the claim for Fiona Bell is a big tick and if he can get on speed without spending too many petrol tickets, he’ll take some catching.

Long Shot

12 Chasing Chaos (Bet Now: $11.00) is three weeks between runs for the Steve Wolfe team after racing over the 1400m at Belmont where he sat on a hot speed before taking the lead and showing good fight but was outgunned late by Star Value. Record at Ascot is awful, but while he is fit/in form, he’s worth a look.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Five Number 11 Gunnago

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 10 Showcase

VALUE: Race One Number 7 Sonnen

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 11

Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 9, 10

Leg Three: 10, 11, 14

Leg Four: 3, 4, 6, 11, 12

$50 Investment= 66.66% of the dividend if successful

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