28/9/2024 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Golden Rose day

Group l racing returns to Rosehill on Saturday for Golden Rose Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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18 Alabama State (Bet Now: $4.80) looks a nice horse on the up for Jack Pilkington and should take beating. He ran two weeks ago in the Midway and I think you can easily make a case to say he wins if he was within range but he just got too far back. His finale was excellent and up in trip, he looks the one to beat.

3 Victory Lane (Bet Now: $10.00) is one with good upside to come and looks to returned in really good order. He resumed behind Silenstar in the Midway a fortnight back where he got a mile out of his ground but I really liked the way he finished his race off in defeat. If he can settle closer, he takes beating.

11 Treize (Bet Now:  $SP.00) will put herself on speed and take running down, which is what she did two weeks back behind Silenstar but being second up, she couldn’t quite see it through and just felt the pinch late. Hard fit now, good racing style, she takes running down.

Dean Mirfin had a couple nominated for this race but goes with the sole rep with 3 Marenaro (Bet Now: $11.00). He has been excellent in two runs back, first up catching the eye from near last at Dubbo before going to Hawkesbury where he got off speed again but was good late behind Spanish Fox. Maps ideally and will be fine on wet ground, plus gets Nash.

1 Everido (Bet Now: $6.50) looks to have returned in pretty good order for Keith Dryden and can certainly take this out IMO. He did more than enough fresh at Canberra Acton when second before going to a Highway here where he got back and while he was never really a winning threat, he found the line in a good effort. Hard to beat if he can settle closer.

13 Ghost Walker (Bet Now: $17.00) is quirky but he has an engine under the hood for Danielle Seib. He won his maiden last time at Wagga, giving them a start and a beating, producing an excellent finale out wide to win. He comes straight to Highway grade but I do think he has talent and he can measure up IMO.

Throw at the stumps via 6 Waltham (Bet Now: $31.00). Matty Smith trained gelding that resumed behind Matusalem a few weeks back. He was trucking in the run out the back and on the turn, looked like he would loom and threaten, but he plodded and was plain. Poor post race recovery so he had an excuse and he trialled too well prior so I am giving him another look, especially if the rain comes.

1 Changingoftheguard (Bet Now: $5.00) is just about at D-Day I say. He hasn’t quite gone on with it since arriving from overseas but he has class on his side vs this lot. Race shape was against him last time at Randwick but that said, he stayed on and was sound in defeat behind Redstone Well. Bit of juice in the track is fine and is hard to beat.

8 Think N Fly (Bet Now: $12.00) will jump on the bunny and give cheek at odds. He was on speed in the City Tatts Cup last time and although held late by Redstone Well, he stuck on and was pretty good in defeat. He’ll likely lead this field up and if the track plays up/in, he’s dangerous for sure.

8 Unusual Legacy (Bet Now: $3.20) is a very smart animal for Chris Waller and keen to see him here with eyes towards The Metropolitan. He won at Rosehill two weeks ago, giving them a start and a beating and he just got better as the race went on, drawing clear late to spank them. He’s clearly heading in the right direction, good upside to come…I think good luck beating him.

5 Raf Attack (Bet Now: $16.00) is going to be hard to beat here if he can find the lead. He has been a fraction tardy to begin with in his past couple of runs, two back in the Rowley Mile at Hawkesbury before going here where he didn’t disgrace himself in defeat behind Unusual Legacy. If he finds the top and gets some form of control, he takes running down.

17 Forecaster (Bet Now: $17.00) will put himself on speed and look to give his all. He did that two weeks back here and gave a very strong kick from the front but couldn’t quite see it through, tiring late and was run down by a smart horse, Unusual Legacy. If he leads and gets control, he takes running down.

5 Perspiration (Bet Now: $11.00) is a big improver I say. Ciaron Maher trained three year old that resumed three weeks ago in the San Domenico at Rosehill. He tried hard but I don’t think was 100% happy on the firm deck and in the fast run race won by Storm Boy. Wet track, fitter, he can bounce back.

3 Gatsby’s (Bet Now: $1.60) can easily bounce back for Chris Waller. He won like a star when resuming with a bang in The Rosebud before going to the San Domenico where he was plain and weak late, perhaps not handling the firm deck behind Storm Boy. More juice in the ground, gate one, back in depth, he’s clearly hard to beat.

8 Winning Proposal (Bet Now: $8.00) is one to be entertained for exotics. She ran in the Furious from three weeks back. She did a bit of work to be on speed and that early burn just felt the pinch late, so forgive the run behind Manaal. Back in trip, good racing style, not dismissing her.

12 Willaidow (Bet Now: $3.60) has to be given another look for Marc Conners. He ran several weeks back at Rosehill where he got into a dream spot behind the hot speed but when asked for the effort, he found nothing and was very plain late. Tick over trial was quite good and off prior efforts, he can take this out.

8 Rhapsody Chic (Bet Now: $11.00) swims and commands respect. Team Freedman trained gelding that is five weeks between runs since racing at The Valley where he seemingly had his chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Rolls. Tick over trial was good and despite a tricky gate, commands respect.

14 Cadetship (Bet Now: $11.00) has been up a little while but is holding his form pretty well. Chris Waller trained gelding that ran behind Firestorm two weeks back. He got into a decent spot and presented to win but I just think 1500m found him out late in the piece. More patient ride and back to 1400m, he’s hard to beat I say.

6 Makarena (Bet Now: $4.50) is a mare with good talent for Team Hawkes. This mare resumed in the Sheraco a fortnight back where she looked to be trucking in the run but when asked for the effort, being first up and chasing the speed, she just felt the pinch late. If that hasn’t busted her, she’ll take beating against this lot.

2 Amelia’s Jewel (Bet Now: $2.80) is the class runner and that class will carry her a long way towards victory. She resumed in the Tramway where the race shape/pattern wasn’t in her corner but she kept on and kept finding the line in a pretty good return behind Royal Patronage. Fitter, back to Mares grade, she rates highly.

3 Lekvarte (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Joe Pride trained mare that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since the Tatts Tiara when having a shot at the title for a Group l and she didn’t measure up when down the track behind Bella Nipotina. She is a mare who can sprint well fresh and has trialled up nicely for the return.

Trials and work are one thing, but how can you watch what 1 Broadsiding (Bet Now: $2.30) has done leading into this and say he’s not come back in beast mode? He has savaged the line in the trials, his recent piece of work between races was sparkling, he looks to have returned bigger and better and towards the end of last season, he was dominant…the knock being he was dominant against not much vs what he faces here, but potentially, what he faces here, outside Traffic Warden and Linebacker, hasn’t improved too much. He looks the one to beat, clearly.

2 Traffic Warden (Bet Now: $6.00) is the only horse from The Run To The Rose I have interest in. His win was spectacular and yes, the race was set up for him, but keep in mind he was first up, so he does have upside/improvement to come and up to 1400m, I think he’ll only run well and be the Godolphin runner for The Everest.

9 Tropicus (Bet Now: $26.00) has the engine under the hood to run top four. He was a real eye catcher fresh in the San Domenico before going behind Traffic Warden where he got back to near last and while he was never a winning threat, he kept finding the line in a really good effort. Can run top four for sure.

1 Celestial Legend (Bet Now: $4.20) has eyes on better races still but I do think he’s here to rumble. He resumed in the Theo Marks where he got back in the run and made up decent headway without threatening behind Encap. Fitter and up in trip, juice in the ground, I think he’ll run a beauty.

8 Bases Loaded (Bet Now: $4.20) will put himself on speed and take beating. This guy was near the front in the Theo Marks a fortnight back and he tried his guts out but first up, condition just gave out late when a narrow second to Encap. Fitter, good racing style, upside, he clearly appeals.

14 Amor Victorious (Bet Now: $8.50) looks the leader and he does like wet ground. He comes through a race at this track/distance won by Ceowulf when leading and I thought had his chance but was run down late by a good horse. If he finds the front and gets control, he’ll take running down.

11 Pharari (Bet Now: $2.00) is a very, very interesting runner. Ciaron Maher trained mare that went like a rocket when winning over 1000m at Sandown, leading throughout and she gave the course record a look with how dominant she was. She looks the ideal Rosehill 1100m horse and will take beating.

17 Tanglewood (Bet Now: $7.00) swims and is here to tune up for The Kosciuszko. He resumed with a bang on the Kenso, giving them a start and a beating, finishing over the top for an impressive win. Good test here against some likely types but think he can measure up and run well.

16 Kreon (Bet Now: $16.00) has got himself into The Kosciuszko and I dare say will use this as a tune up, but it’s not to say he can’t win given his last start at Goulburn, where he led throughout and gapped them by over five lengths, running fast time. Good test here in a strong race but off last time, has to be respected.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Broadsiding

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 18 Alabama State

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 6 Waltham

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 1

Leg Three: 1, 4, 8, 14

Leg Four: 10, 11, 15, 16, 17

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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