28/7/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Winter Challenge day

A nine race card has been assembled for Rosehill this Saturday where it is Winter Challenge Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Normal luck and 6 Laburnum (Bet Now: $2.70) is the bet of the day at Rosehill. The only niggle I had with her two weeks back was the 1100-1400 second up scenario and in the end, that probably beat her. Loomed very large to win the race but just ran out of puff late. Got the 1400m run under the belt now, so she should be better off and for mine she’s better than these.

2 Inherit (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Chris Waller trained gelding who debuted three weeks back over 1200m at Newcastle where he sat back in the run and seemingly was going nowhere but once presented clear air, gee he finished off with purpose and won like a good horse. 1500m no issue and the tick over trial at Warwick Farm last week was a tick.

4 Salsa Man (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Paul Perry trained youngster who surged hard late to get the maiden win two back at Wyong prior to racing at Warwick farm a couple of Wednesdays back where he was game in defeat behind impressive winner Tarka. Back to 1500m no issue for this colt and I think with luck in running he can fill a first four spot.

4 Huangshan (Bet Now: $9.00) probably doesn’t have the zip compared to some of these but one thing we do know is that a hard 2000m will be no issue at all. Ran over 1900m at Gosford last Thursday where the stablemate Corinth controlled things before quickening 600m out, which originally left Huangshan flat footed, but he picked up and surged to grab the win in the last stride. Think he’ll be better suited at 2000m+ and the speed won’t be a crawl here.

5 The Macallan (Bet Now: $5.00) is a former kiwi who made his Australian debut for Chris Waller over 1800m here two weeks ago where he was left severely flat footed by Bowman on Jolly Honour, who went chips in on the turn in search of the win. The good thing about the The Macallan is that he didn’t spit the dummy out. He chased and kept finding the line. 2000m, off that run, looks no issue and has enormous upside.

3 Falcon Island (Bet Now: $2.90) is a progressive three year old for the WaterBott team who was game in defeat two back at Hawkesbury before going to Wyong where he absolutely bolted in under Rory Hutchings, winning by an ever widening eight lengths and did it without Hutchings fully extending. That will be a much needed confidence boost and 2000m no issue.

If 6 Roman Typhoon (Bet Now: $5.50) can tick the 1500m box, I think he’ll prove much too classy for this lot. Best horse in the race by a mile but is a bit of an unknown at the trip. Should have won two back over 1200m at Randwick when JVO dropped the whip. Horse backed up seven days later over 1100m at Rosehill and attacked the line under Avdulla to win, and the way he ran to the line and through it, 1500m no issue IMO. Still has to do it, but confident he can.

In terms of ability, 11 Nicconita (Bet Now: $2.30) is right up there with Roman Typhoon. I just think she’s well found in the market for a horse who has to be a query at 1500m. This race was an afterthought for the stable, with Blake Shinn saying after last Saturday that if you want to test her beyond 1400m, try it now while’s she fit and in form. Maps super and J Mac steers. Very likeable…just too short.

9 Biodynamic (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Danny Williams trained galloper who was game in defeat two back over the 1650m at Moruya before making the step back to 1200m, which was a huge query, and in the end that beat him as he lacked the zip but his finale was very good. Up to 1500m will really suit and for mine is a definite threat.

1 Carzoff (Bet Now: $7.50) had good mate market support when resuming over 1800m at Randwick three weeks weeks ago and the market got it right as he finished strongly but proved no match for impressive winner Just Shine. Was nominated to run over the mile last week but instead runs over 2000m here, which for mine is a big tick.

3 Just Shine (Bet Now: $5.00) won that race mentioned above and he landed some nice bets at near double figure odds, finishing off strongly on the soft track to win impressively, which followed a confidence boosting trial win at Hawkesbury after a below par resumption. Will be even better off at 2000m and with the added fitness.

13 Screamarr (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Team Cummings trained gelding who comes through the Vaucluse Bay race at this track/distance two weeks ago where he got a fair way back in the run but looked to close off well late when finishing a close up fourth. Doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates, but I reckon a win isn’t far away, whether it be this level or the midweeks.

If this was 1200m, I’d be declaring 4 Tip Top (Bet Now: $6.50). Just suspect 1100m second up, he might need one more run. Still, it was hard to ignore his resumption three weeks ago behind Noble Joey, clocking some really good late splits behind the Nowra galloper to run a close up fourth. Think he might need one more, but he goes on top.

8 Difficult To Get (Bet Now: $9.00) should be forgiven for her failure at this track/distance a few weeks back given she just went way too hard in applying pressure on speed. Had to drop out and did when fourth to Gala Moshea. She’ll be much better with cover IMO, and the two runs prior do read quite well for this assignment.

I reckon 1 Powerline (Bet Now: $21.00) could be an improver at odds. Kris Lees trains this grey, who has had injury issues throughout his career but he has shown city class ability, so I reckon he can be competitive here. Resumed over 1200m at Randwick in June and didn’t do much on the bog behind Noire. Been freshened up looking for firmer footing, which he gets, and his tick over trial after the resumption was quite good, closing off from the back under a hold.

8 Foreign Territory (Bet Now: $3.60) is a few weeks between runs for the WaterBott team after attempting to lead all the way over 1550m at Canterbury where Hippo rode it a treat in front, gave a good kick on the turn but was just no match late for the above average Godolphin galloper Deft. 1400m looks ideal given he’s a strong on speed type who will make sure this is a truly run contest.

10 Paret (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Chris Waller trained three year old who had his first run as a gelding over 1200m here two weeks ago against the older horses and he got a pass mark for sure, finishing off quite strongly from near last to run third to the much improved gelding Star Of Monsoon. Should improve big time off that and 1400m a big tick.

I reckon 3 Groundbreak (Bet Now: $9.50) is the watch horse. Team Hawkes train this galloper, who is a month between runs since contesting a heat of the Silver Bowl Series where he was well held behind Remember The Name, but the form out of it has been great with Mount Kilcoy, Gaulois and Mr Money Bags all winning since. Tick over trial on Monday here was good and back to 1400m a big tick.

I reckon the each way gamble of the weekend is 17 Salsonic (Bet Now: $21.00), who is resuming for Jason Coyle. First up at 1500m against hard fit, in form horses would seem an ask, but this bloke, even though resuming, has looked great to the eye in a couple of 1200m trials, so fitness won’t be an issue I don’t think, and with a likely genuine tempo in front, he’ll get his chance to run on.

4 Invinzabeel (Bet Now: $4.20) is racing so consistently this time in without winning but gee he gets a great chance to get back into the winners list. He comes through the Winter Stakes a fortnight back here where he tried really hard to wear down Dreamforce but that horse packed too many punches and clung on. Gate one, 1500m, gee he’s likeable.

11 Emperor’s Way (Bet Now: $19.00) had trialled up enormous for Team Snowden prior to resuming in the Winter Stakes two weeks back here where he got too far back in the run but as you’d expect given the way he trialled, he finished off quite well to finish just under four lengths from Dreamforce. Good second up record and likes this track/distance.

10 Eusebio (Bet Now: $7.50) had trialled up really well prior to resuming at the Valley a few weeks weeks ago where I thought Dwayne Dunn rode the gelding an absolute treat, timing his run to perfection to nab Artie Dee Two, who has run okay subsequent. He does go well second up and the form from last prep reads well, plus his tick over trial at Warwick Farm last week looked good to the eye.

6 Albumin (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Gerald Ryan trained three year old who has really turned the corner since being trained specifically as a sprinter, winning his last three starts here in impressive fashion, attacking the line with purpose to get the job done. Starting to creep up in the weights, but hard to knock the way he is going.

12 Drachenfels (Bet Now: $8.50) is a stablemate of Eusebio who resumed in the race won by Albumin and if you were on, your money was probably done and dusted shortly after the start after a tardy beginning. He has a very good second up record and if he can jump more clean and sit near the speed, he’ll be better off.

12 Bella Success (Bet Now: $5.50) is on the seven day back up for the Waller team after racing over 1200m last Saturday at Randwick and if you were on, like me, she should have won but just had no luck in the straight when she needed it. The flip side to that is that she has a horrible racing pattern and needs luck rather than making her own luck. If she gets the former, she’ll take some beating.

3 Istria (Bet Now: $12.00) is a well bred daughter of Reset that resumes for James Cummings. This girl hasn’t raced since November last year over 1500m here when running a gallant third to Dreamforce, and we know what that horse has done since. Has just had the one 900m trial for this prep, but she’s got class/quality to run well fresh.

14 Duchess Pedrille (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Ron Quinton trained mare who should like the step up to the 1200m. Ran over 1100m here a fortnight back where she got back to near last off a fast speed and while she never looked a winning chance, she worked home quite well late in the piece when third to Smart Amelia. Looks better suited at 1200m and should be just about at peak fitness.

BEST BET: Race One Number 6 Laburnum

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 10 Eusebio

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 17 Salsonic

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 8, 10, 13

Leg Two: 1, 4, 11, 16, 17

Leg Three: 10

Leg Four: 2, 3, 12, 14

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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