An eight race program has been set down for Belmont this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:48) D'Orsogna Handicap (78+) 2200m
Buttering up with 6 Red Army (Bet Now: $1.50). Was keen on him last Saturday at this track/distance where I thought Harvey rode a lovely race on the hot pot and he was there to win. Just making his run nearer the inside wasn’t the spot to be by that stage of the day. Pike on, hopefully firmer footing, he’ll take beating.
1 At The Ready (Bet Now: $4.80) is the class of the field and isn’t badly in at the weights with the 57kg after the 2kg claim for Andrew Castle. He comes through the Swan River Vase where he tried hard to get past Gatting but that horse was just far too classy on the day. Significant drop in depth here and he’s a leading contender.
5 Fontainebleu (Bet Now: $11.00) could be an improver up in trip. Ran over the mile here a fortnight back where she was wide no cover throughout and just weakened out of the finish late behind the in form Tellem We’re Comin. She does have a touch of class on her side and if the track remains to have give, that will help her cause.
Race 2. (15:28) TLC Projects & Shopfitters Plate 1400m
Happy to be with 2 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $2.70). Scintillating debut win over 1300m here before having his next start at the same track/distance where he did a bit wrong in the straight but battled away well when third to Angelic Ruler. Third up now, so he should know what the caper is about and Pateman sticks.
1 Kelly’s Calisto (Bet Now: $3.00) is somewhat of an iron horse for the Adam Durrant team who ran over the 1300m here a fortnight back where Kirby had the youngster rolling along in front and halfway down the straight he looked home but got the staggers late and was gathered in by Angelic Ruler. That leaves me with reservations about a strong 1400m, but he’s hard fit and in form.
5 Convicted Man (Bet Now: $18.00) is a son of Gingerbread Man for Dan Morton who comes here off the back of a closing fourth at this track/distance a couple of Wednesdays back where he got too far back off the pace but I really liked the way he found the line late. Interesting that Pike steers, which could well be a good lead.
Race 3. (16:08) New Dimension Air Con & Mechanical Services Handicap 1300m
7 Electric Light (Bet Now: $2.25) should be winning this barring bad luck. Combo of bad luck and poor choices from Pike cost her the unbeaten run last Wednesday at this track/distance. She was about to burst through and win but Pike decided to go inside where the run wasn’t there, costing her the win. Clear air this time around and I think she’ll be too good.
Have to give 1 Street Fury (Bet Now: $7.00) another chance. This filly should have won first up over 1000m here before stepping up to 1200m where she did a bit too much work in the run and tired late behind Resistance. I think she’s a little query at a strong 1300m, but the big tick for her is that she has gate one and doesn’t have to do too much work.
3 Pearl Trade (Bet Now: $5.50) looks the knockout. Disappointing/flat run two back over 1000m here. Given a four week let up and ran in the Resistance race where she got back and charged home late to run a close up fourth despite wanting to lay in. Got the ability to win and should improve off that last outing.
Race 4. (16:43) Crosby Supply & Fix Handicap (1MW) 1000m
12 Universal Warrior (Bet Now: $4.20) on top but it’s a race that could be a potential trap. This gelding was a hard fav when resuming over 1100m at Northam last Thursday where Pike had him up on speed and he was always in control of things, never really looking like getting beat. Time was significantly slower than the other two 1100m races the same afternoon, but trusting the eye.
Big watch on 2 Mantime (Bet Now: $8.50), who resumes for Lindsey Smith. Son of Denman who is blessed with a stack of talent but has had plenty of issues throughout his career, namely with his feet. Interesting to see in the gear changes that the concussion plates are off, which can only be a good lead. Trial win indicates he’s back. Just needs luck from the barrier.
6 Deep Cover (Bet Now: $14.00) drops a bit in depth for mine. He contested an identical race here a fortnight back where he settled off the speed and despite getting slightly held up, he had his chance to run on to win. He made ground but not enough to be a winning threat. That was his first run in three weeks so hopefully there’s room to improve.
Race 5. (17:20) Ashworth Office Furniture Handicap (1MW) 1400m
Giving the nod to 5 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $3.80) in a bit of a nightmare race. Michael Lane trains this four year old, who produced a brilliant effort to win first up over 1400m at Pinjarra. Not easy to win fresh at that trip on a soft track but gee he was dominant and ran really good late splits relative to the day. Want him probably over 1600m+, but happy to be with him.
3 Midnight Sky (Bet Now: $2.90) is the very interesting runner. Adam Durrant has this mare going quite well at the moment. She ran over 2200m at this track two weeks ago where Pike looked to give her every chance but for mine she just didn’t run the trip out. Right back to 1400m is an ask, but hard to disagree with the methods of Durrant.
9 Jenabel (Bet Now: $8.50) is absolutely flying at the moment for the Ashley Maley team and I think she has earned a crack at Saturday grade. Impressive win over the mile here three back, went to Kalgoorlie and won before racing over this track/distance last Wednesday and producing a lovely turn of foot late to get the job done. I think she can run well.
Race 6. (17:55) Tabtouch Handicap (72+) 1600m
Hard to get away from 2 Abdicator. (Bet Now: $1.90). On the quick back up after winning impressively last Saturday over 1400m here where Pike gave the gelding an absolute pearler, putting him to sleep on the rail before shoving into the clear when it was time to go and the horse dashed right away late. He’ll eat up the mile, clearly on top.
4 Atlanta Blue (Bet Now: $6.00) had been bursting to win a race for some time for Jason Pateman and that win finally came on the board a fortnight back over 1400m here when sitting off the tempo before Pike peeled him out on the turn and though taking a little while to wind up, he finished best and won well. Just needs to tick the 1600m box.
11 Cougar Nights (Bet Now: $31.00) looks a definite knockout chance at odds. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago and got just too far back but you had to like his finale when taking ground off impressive winner Tellem We’re Comin. Prefer him at 2000m, but if they go keen in front, he’ll be one of the strongest late.
Race 7. (18:30) Budget Car & Truck Rental Handicap (78+) 1300m
4 Tellem We’re Comin (Bet Now: $1.80) should be taking care of this field. Highly promising gelding for Team Williams who produced a huge effort to win over the mile here a fortnight ago. It was vintage Pike that got him home. There was hardly a run between runners but somehow Pike got it and the horse burst through to win. The mile is probably a stretch for him so back to 1300m is ideal.
11 Seeker (Bet Now: $7.00) is a son of Oratorio for Lou Luciani who rarely runs a bad race and I think he’ll repeat that here. Well deserved win at this track/distance two back before stepping back to 1200m where he tried hard but just lacked the zip when third to Swift Sis. Back up to 1300m helps and draws to stalk the fav.
If they go silly in front, looked for an improved showing from 7 Mad Brad (Bet Now: $31.00), who resumed three weeks back over 1000m where he was back and wide but couldn’t come on behind the low flying Ambiente. Has placed several times from seven second up runs and doesn’t mind a track with give in it.
Race 8. (19:05) Pretl & Williams Master Painters Handicap (66+) 1300m
Takes on the older horses, but I do like 14 Kiss The Breeze (Bet Now: $3.60) in the get out. On the seven day back up for Adam Durrant after racing over the 1200m here last Saturday where she eased back to near last from the wide gate and in the end that worked against her as she got too far back and then held up when looking to build momentum. Think she can roll forward here and with the minimum weight, she’ll prove hard to hold out.
12 Bold Success (Bet Now: $5.50) is a talented gelding that resumes for Adam Durrant. In terms of ability, he’s the best horse in this race IMO but whatever he has between the airs. Either there is nothing or whatever is there, it’s not intelligent. Stack of gear changes for his resumption and looked to trial well last Monday.
Look for 1 Helms Gate (Bet Now: $19.00) to get back and run on at the end. Four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he attempted to lead all the way but found nothing in the straight behind seeker. Prefer him ridden cold and coming with one run. If that eventuates, he’s right in the game.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Tellem We’re Comin
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 7 Electric Light
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 12 Universal Warrior
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 9, 10
Leg Two: 2, 4, 10, 11
Leg Three: 4
Leg Four: 1, 11, 12, 14
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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