The Brisbane Winter Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Victory Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:22) #bneraces Handicap (85) 2030m
1 Estikhraaj (Bet Now: $5.50) could be an improver. He ran over the Toowoomba mile three weeks back and found them a bit sharp I thought but he stuck to the task really well in defeat I thought when fourth to Red Prince. Crying out for ground, which he gets here, draws a good gate and Fradd steers. Well placed to my eye.
6 Stanley (Bet Now: $2.80) is the knockout. He was a drifter in betting when contesting the Backhouse Billy race and he, like most in the race, just couldn’t wind up quick enough behind Jenny Graham’s horse, with that galloper getting an absolute picnic in front under Jeff Lloyd. Stanley will appreciate back to 2030m and is a live chance.
4 Backhouse Billy (Bet Now: $5.00) won the race mentioned above, largely due to a peach of a ride in front from Jeff Lloyd, who walked them in front before dashing at the right time and outstaying them late. Small field so I expect Orman to bring him over and be up near the speed and controlling things once again.
Race 2. (11:57) Become A BRC Member Handicap (Class 6) 1050m
Not much confidence about this race but I’ll have a throw at the stumps each way with 6 Alaskan Wolf (Bet Now: $6.50). Norman Rogers trains this mare at Wyong but she does her best racing in Queensland. Go back three runs and she placed at Ipswich on a Saturday behind the Stakes performed Dream Finnish before two unplaced runs behind Firsthand and Bon Amis. No trials, but goes well fresh and Larry rides her well.
3 Kings Of Leon (Bet Now: $3.50) is the interesting runner. I Am Invincible gelding who is resuming for the Matty Smith team at Warwick Farm. Was one of the real finds of the Sydney Winter last year with the signs there suggesting he could be a blacktype horse. Been given a really good break and has had a couple of solid trials leading in. Market/yard watch.
10 Make Her Own Whey (Bet Now: $15.00) is a talented mare that resumes for the Rob Heathcoate team. This mare was racing really well during the Summer without winning, but she was getting beat by some nice types. Thought her recent trial behind Secret Mo was outstanding, where she could have won it but wasn’t extended. Keen to see what she does.
Race 3. (12:32) Ascot Green Plate (Class 6) 1630m
8 Malmoosa (Bet Now: $17.00) is the knockout. Daniel Bowen has this mare flying. Ran over 1400m at the Sunny Coast two weeks ago where she looked disinterested for the most part but then the last 250m, she picked up the bit and ran to the line and through it with real purpose behind Old Habits. Should eat up the mile and I’ll have something on each way.
Was hard to miss the resumption of 10 Miss Dubois (Bet Now: $3.50) at the Sunny Coast a fortnight back. She was hard in the market but unfortunately for her backers she just got a mile back in the run and had to make her run nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be, behind Mishani Honcho. Have to give her another chance.
3 Old Habits (Bet Now: $9.00) looks to be going really well at the moment for the Rob Heathcoate team. Lovely ride by Sean Cormack got the horse home last time out over 1400m at the Sunny Coast when timing his run to perfection from the back. Poorly weighted, but draws a good gate and can sit handy if need be.
Race 4. (13:07) Powering The Happy Handicap (75) 1200m
9 Rock Spur (Bet Now: $6.00) for me. Gary Duncan trains this gelding, who is on the seven day back up after racing over the 1050m here last Saturday where he got a mile back in the run on a day where it was tough to make significant ground but he worked home well late behind Yarrapower. Up to 1200m a big tick, Lloyd sticks and draws much better.
12 Patronizing (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Stuart Kendrick trained gelding who hasn’t raced for four weeks since attempting to lead all the way here where he looked to travel well and gave a pretty solid kick but just tied late when fourth to Mr Bellagio. That was 1350m, so I think back to 1200m is a big tick and he maps well.
16 Scorcha (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Tony Gollan trained mare who deserves a crack at Saturday grade. Aggressive on speed steer from Vanessa Johnston helped her get the win last time out at Beaudesert, showing good early toe and letting the mare run. Is a winner at this track/distance and has the right racing pattern so she ticks a few boxes.
Race 5. (13:42) Dalrello Stakes 1200m
13 Clockwise (Bet Now: $16.00) gets the nod for me. Mark Webb trains this filly, who was well backed when resuming over 1200m at the Sunny Coast two weeks ago and she just got too far back in the run but you had to like the way she closed off behind Zoom By. can sit much closer in the run and rates highly.
11 Shamurt (Bet Now: $2.15) is a Tony Gollan trained filly who has the runs on the board, winning two for two, the latest coming on Weetwood Day at Toowoomba when proving too good late for boom horse Cuddle Me Tight. Doubts on her running a hard six furlongs, but always respect an unbeaten horse.
6 Invincore (Bet Now: $12.00) is an I Am Invincible colt for the Toby Edmonds team who had trialled up enormous prior to his first run at the Ipswich midweeks where he was on speed for the most part and always seemed to look in control of the race but the heavily backed Adoradiva kicked back hard and Invincore only won via the bob of the head. Hopefully that toughens him up for this.
Race 6. (14:22) Makers Mark Plate 1350m
13 Femme Fireball (Bet Now: $15.00) is a daughter of Pierro for Rob Heathcoate who will be savaging the line late if they go hard. She got a mile back first up at the Sunny Coast but you had to like the way she finished off her race behind Mishani Bullitt aftergiving away 10+ lengths in the run. If she is close enough, she’s good enough to win.
1 Snitz (Bet Now: $5.00) is the weights horse. Beautifully placed and should go close. Two wins to kick off the prep were outstanding prior to going to the Country Championship Final where he just had no luck from the barrier and in the end, he did a great job in defeat behind fellow three year old Victorem. Normal luck and he goes close.
8 Cabeirian (Bet Now: $41.00) is a flashy looking gelding for Kelly Doughty who could be an improver. Ran on a bog here fresh behind Return On Equity before going to the Mishani Bullitt race at the Sunny Coast where he raced a touch flat, I suspect because of the heavy track resumption. Be wary of a third up bounce back.
Race 7. (15:02) Gold Coast Bracelet 1630m
Siding with 7 Another Dollar (Bet Now: $12.00). Thought her win last time out at Toowoomba three weeks back was great, mind you largely down to the gem of a ride from Jeff Lloyd, who saved all the ground before getting the splits and dashing late. On breeding, she’ll eat up the mile, has upside and is of course in the right stable.
It’ll be a near impossible ask from the gate, but on class, 1 Torvill (Bet Now: $2.30) has about 10 lengths on these. Just a matter of getting luck. Group l placed this campaign already and comes here off the back of a luckless fourth in the South Pacific at Randwick behind California Turbo where she should have finished much closer. Any luck and she wins. Just too short to back. I’d want $3.50+ before having something on.
13 Coral Coast (Bet Now: $14.00) is a So You Think filly for the Anthony Freedman team who resumed at the Sandown midweeks over 1300m against the mares and found the line well enough I thought for a staying filly behind That Rings A Bell. Has been given a little freshen up and trialled well last week at Deagon. One to watch for sure.
Race 8. (15:42) Victory Stakes 1200m
1 Impending (Bet Now: $1.90) is a high quality animal for Godolphin that is first up here. Had a two run Spring prep and was very good each time, resuming in the Everest Consolation behind In Her Time before a close up third to Redzel in the Darley Classic. Comes here with just one soft trial under the belt but he has the class/quality to win.
4 Monsieur Gustave (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Darryl Hansen trained gelding resuming. He can be a bit hit and miss at times but for the most part, he was quite consistent during the summer, highlighted by wins in the Glasshouse on his home track at the Sunny Coast along with a George Moore win here. Trialled up well on Tuesday and is a very good first up performer.
7 Havasay (Bet Now: $34.00) is certainly capable of beating these but it all depends where he is at fitness wise. This is the easiest race he has contested in some time after a pretty good Summer prep without winning. Impressive trial winner last Tuesday at Deagon, he flies fresh and loves racing at Doomben. Key chance.
Race 9. (16:22) Gunsynd Classic 1630m
5 California Turbo (Bet Now: $7.50) for me. Team Snowden look to have a really good three year old on their hands here. Dominant resumption at Newcastle before going to the South Pacific at Randwick where he half turned it up when bolting to the front and was almost caught by Dark Dream but held on. Think he’ll be much better with a bunny to chase. Happy to stick.
8 Dark Dream (Bet Now: $6.00) ran a beauty in the South Pacific when narrowly beaten by California Turbo. Just had a bit too much to do from the back but his late splits were some of the best for the meeting. Mile looks no issue for him and he has a stack of upside to come, like California Turbo, so this should be a good race.
7 Zofonic Dancer (Bet Now: $9.50) is probably the pick of the locals. Notable drifter in betting last time out in the Toowoomba Guineas as the money came for Hang and the punters got it right as Hang did all the work and proved too good while Zofonic Dancer probably got a bit too far back. I’d like this horse to sit closer in the run because I don’t think he can give them a start and a beating.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Impending
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Estikhraak
VALUE: Race Six Number 13 Femme Fireball
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 13
Leg Two: 1, 7, 12, 13
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 4, 5, 7, 8
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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