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Eight races will be run and won at Ascot on Saturday where it is Sires Produce Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (14:18) Mumm Champagne Handicap (72+) 1800m

Back Me

9 Middle Earth (Bet Now: $4.00) clearly on top for me. Vaugh Sigley trains this gelding, who ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and was a hard luck tale to the eye, getting not much room in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer behind Elegant Blast. clear air here and he should take some beating.

Danger

2 Taxagano (Bet Now: $5.00) is an absolute beauty for the Lindsey Smith team and despite a few negatives here, I think he can go close again. Looked in a bit of trouble last time out over 1400m here but when Staeck asked him for the big effort, he found plenty and was really strong to the line in winning. Just has to stretch it to 1800m.

Long Shot

5 One Short (Bet Now: $5.00) comes through the race won by Taxagano mentioned above and gee his effort was enormous in defeat. Did a power of work in the run, sitting four wide throughout yet still finding the line to run a game third. Draws barrier one now so he’ll get a much more economical sit. Just hopefully that hasn’t busted him.

Race 2. (14:58) James Boags Premium Handicap 1100m

Back Me

6 Alpha Sky (Bet Now: $3.60) looks a near standout to my eye. Very promising gelding for Simon Miller who debuted here a couple of Wednesdays back and gee he was very impressive, letting down hard from the back to win despite doing plenty wrong in the straight. Should get a sweet run from the draw and rates highly.

Danger

5 Stageman (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Written Tycoon gelding that resumes for the Williams camp. He won two for two to start the career in the Spring, with his second win coming at this track/distance. Been given a good break and to my eye trialled up enormous a few weeks back at Lark Hill. Definite threat with luck in running.

Long Shot

1 Arrum Boy (Bet Now: $13.00) is a talented son of Demerit that resumes for the Steve Wolfe yard. This bloke had a pretty solid Spring/Summer campaign, contesting some good races during the Carnival and did win on a couple of occasions. Trialled up really well a couple of weeks back at Albany and stable is flying.

Race 3. (15:38) Amelia Park Handicap 1500m

Back Me

Third up, I think 5 Gifted Warrior (Bet Now: $8.50) can get the job done here. Ran over 1200m here a fortnight back and to my eye just found it a tad short but he finished off well enough behind In Love With Paris. He’s crying out for further, which he gets immediately, and hopefully he can get a sweet sit just off the pace.

Danger

1 In Love With Paris (Bet Now: $2.60) has the runs on the board and should take some beating despite the awkward draw. Lot to like about his win last time out over 1200m here when Harvey had him on speed outside the leader before putting it away and drawing clear late. If he can overcome the gate, he’ll look the winner at some stage.

Long Shot

2 Three Secrets (Bet Now: $5.50) probably can’t turn the tables on In Love With Paris but I think he can more than hold his own again. He ran second to the Kersley gelding last time out in the race mentioned above where he had every chance. Winner was too good. Nasty gate, so he might to have to do work, but happy to include.

Race 4. (16:18) D'Orsogna Handicap (1MW) 1400m

Back Me

11 Seaside Serenade (Bet Now: $3.00) on top for me. This mare is absolutely flying at the moment. Heavily backed when racing at this track/distance a couple of Wednesdays back where she got a fair way off them in the run before Lucy Warwick got her some clear and gee she let down hard to win despite wanting to do a bit wrong late. Pike on now, and this race is thin.

Danger

1 Run Liam Run (Bet Now: $10.00) is an absolute beauty. On the quick back up after racing in the last here on Saturday where he got into a lovely spot behind the speed before angling clear and chasing hard all the way to just miss out on picking up Grey Enigma. On that run, he should have no issue with the 1400m assignment again.

Long Shot

2 Avidus (Bet Now: $15.00) could well represent some value into exotics. He is five weeks between runs since leading all the way to win over the 1675m at Bunbury under Johnston-Porter, who remains on here. I think whatever he does here, he will improve on, but he has the right racing pattern and will be in it for a long way.

Race 5. (17:00) City Of Belmont Community Trophy 1400m

Back Me

2 Pinzu (Bet Now: $3.10) should be winning this. Ran a mighty race a fortnight back in the Old Comrade when up on speed and looking to be going easily but when push came to shove, Falcon Crest just packed too many punches. Back to the 1400m is the negative, but if they go hard in front, he’ll be the one finishing hard.

Danger

5 The Celt (Bet Now: $4.60) is racing really well at the moment for the Anne King yard. Was a fair way off a hot speed two weeks ago over 1200m here but when balanced up, he hit the line with real purpose to run second to in form galloper Belter. If he can stretch his brilliance to 1400m, he’s right in the game.

Long Shot

10 See Me Sizzle (Bet Now: $8.00) is a son of Snitzel who is first up for Team Williams. Spring/Summer prep was pretty good, highlighted by a York Cup win, but consistency was his downfall. He was a bit hit and miss at times. Given a quiet trial ion Monday behind Gatting, but it’s interesting he races the same week he trials.

Race 6. (17:40) WA Sires Produce Stakes 1400m

Back Me

Keen to see how 5 Global Reset (Bet Now: $13.00) measures up. He debuted here a couple of Wednesdays back over 1100m and produced one of the wins of the meeting when letting down with a beautiful finishing burst to win, drawing clear despite doing plenty wrong in the straight. Draws a sweet gate and 1400m should be no issue.

Danger

1 Valour Road (Bet Now: $2.70) was a good thing in the Karrakatta if you listened to both Simon Miller and Aaron Mitchell. They were beaming with confidence about this horse winning the big one first up and their faith was rewarded when he led throughout. Barrier ten will make things tricky, but he has the runs on the board.

Long Shot

3 Platoon (Bet Now: $31.00) is still a maiden for the Neville Parnham team but he has been racing really well against the best two year olds WA has to offer. Far from disgraced in the Karrakatta behind Valour Road but he didn’t have a turn of foot and was racing as if he wanted further so 1400m looks ideal and he draws well.

Race 7. (18:20) Belmont City Of Opportunity Handicap (1MW) 1000m

Back Me

If 13 Enticing Star (Bet Now: $1.55) is anywhere near right and forward in condition, she should be winning this. Very promising mare for the Williams camp who hasn’t raced for around nine months since bolting up over 1400m at Belmont and showing us how good she is. Hasn’t raced since but did trial well recently at Lark Hill in readiness.

Danger

9 Don’t Fuss (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Team Pearce trained gelding who was confidently backed when resuming last Wednesday over 1100m here where he looked to have the run of the race but he pulled a fraction too keen in the run and had nothing left for the finale. Firmer footing and back to 1000m are two big ticks.

Long Shot

1 Tirreno (Bet Now: $34.00) is a very interesting runner. Has won 10 of 37 starts, most of which have come at non tab meets in country WA, but he has run time most wins with big weights. How he’ll handle this class is an unknown but he trialled up nicely at Lark Hill recently, beating an above average type in Stageman.

Race 8. (19:00) #celebratebelmont Handicap (72+) 1200m

Back Me

6 Max Almighty (Bet Now: $15.00) each way in the get out. Isn’t the most reliable galloper going around but I think he maps superbly behind a hot tempo and he’ll be strong late. Got too far back last time at Geraldton but made up good ground late behind Lockroy. Draws much better this time around and has a good record here.

Danger

2 Belter (Bet Now: $3.80) will be leading this field up. Just a matter of whether or not he can hold on. He has been brilliant since the stable took up the tactic of letting him free wheel in front, and more often than not he has been breaking their hearts. He’ll look to do something similar here, but there are some good types engaged.

Long Shot

12 Cash On Call (Bet Now: $4.40) is a progressive gelding for Team Williams that resumes. Very enigmatic horse who can be lethal when on song but he does need things to fall into place for him. He’s a tricky horse to ride and more often than not he’ll get bad luck over good luck, but the talent is definitely there and he has trialled well leading in.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 13 Enticing Star

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 9 Middle Earth

VALUE: Race Six Number 5 Global Reset

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 4, 5, 10

Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 8

Leg Three: 13

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12

$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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