Racing returns to Belmont on Saturday where eight races will be run and won. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:53) : Tabtouch Plate 1300m:
Back Me: 1 Art Series (Bet Now: $1.95) ticks the boxes here to win. Smart filly who has won both starts this time in, the latest coming three weeks back over 1200m at Ascot where she led all the way under Pike and bolted in. 1300m is a different pain barrier, on a new track, but she maps well and gets Pike sticking.
Big Danger: 5 Texas Moon (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Fred Kersley trained gelding that debuted over 1200m at Ascot a fortnight back where he got a fair way back in the run but worked home with purpose late to be only beaten a tick over three lengths by Rubia Miss in a strong juvenile race. Up to 1300m is ideal and he’ll be strong late.
Long Shot: 10 Under The Archers (Bet Now: $11.00) comes through the Rubia Miss race mentioned above and despite starting bolters odds, I thought she ran really well in defeat when finishing fourth, beaten 2.5L. I think there is more upside with Texas Moon, but her run was still more than satisfactory.
Race Two (14:30) : JJ Richards & Sons Handicap 1300m:
Back Me: 5 Top Of The Class (Bet Now: $3.30) came with a brilliant finishing burst to win first up despite being a market drifter, then raced a fortnight back and looked to be a touch flat to my eye when running fourth. Be wary of the third up bounce back and Pike jumps aboard now. Very keen on her here.
Big Danger: 2 Salorsci (Bet Now: $3.00) is three for three for the Noske camp and has to be respected here. Resumed over 1000m three weeks back where he sat near the speed and showed pretty good fight late in the straight to get the win on the board and keep up the picket fence. Dainty Tess bolted in last week, so the form reads well.
Long Shot: 7 Halldora (Bet Now: $15.00) is a handy filly for the Vaughn Sigley yard who comes through the same race Top Of The Class contested two weeks ago. Got near the speed under Pike and the market support suggested she’d run well, but I thought she was a touch disappointing behind The Celt. Third up now, so no excuses for mine.
Race Three (15:10) : Perth Racing Club Membership Handiap (78+) 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Madassa (Bet Now: $2.00) goes on top for me here. Talented sprinter for Lindsey Smith that resumed in the Northam Stakes where he sat on speed and gave a very good kick but was nabbed near the peg by First Among Equals. Significant drop in grade and only has to overcome the tricky draw.
Big Danger: 8 Sweet Ora (Bet Now: $7.00) takes on the older horses due her rating but gee she does look well placed here at the weights. Ran over 1200m at Ascot last time out and did a pretty good job in defeat behind The Celt. Drops big time weight and gets the claim from a good draw.
Long Shot: 9 Woolibar (Bet Now: $10.00) is struggling to get the win on the board but there is no doubt that he is racing well. Was 21 days between runs when racing over 1000m a fortnight back and loomed large to win but had to settle for a narrow third. Should improve fitness wise and is a knockout chance.
Race Four (15:48) : Crown Towers Handicap (72+) 1600m:
Back Me: 3 Astronomite (Bet Now: $3.30) picks himself here. Resumed for Team Williams over 1400m a fortnight back where he looked to have a gut on him and ran accordingly but still did a good job to run second. Will improve big time off that and Pie remains on.
Big Danger: 6 Grey Enigma (Bet Now: $7.00) has indeed been an enigma but he got a much deserved win on the board last time out when ridden a treat near the speed and duly saluting. Rises a fair bit in depth here but now he has the win on the board, he can go on with it.
Long Shot: 1 Military Ruler (Bet Now: $6.00) comes through the same race that Astronomite ran second in. He was second up off a decent break and just lacked the turn of foot to go with them. He’s had two runs now, some should be close to peak fitness, and he gets the claim for young Kersley.
Race Five (16:28) : Heineken 3 Handicap (1MW) 1600m:
Back Me: 10 Queen Bey (Bet Now: $11.00) gets the nod for me here but only just. Ran in a maiden at Ascot over the mile on May 10 where she showed nice change up speed to dash clear in the straight and felt the pinch late late but clung on. Should only improve off that and rates highly.
Big Danger: 4 Rising Sea (Bet Now: $3.00) resumed from a 168 day spell over 1400m at Ascot last Wednesday where he led all the way at a good tempo and kicked strongly in the straight for a decisive win. Only has upside and rates highly.
Long Shot: 3 Rich Red (Bet Now: $10.00) is on the quick back up after racing over the mile at Ascot last Saturday where he got off the pace and tried hard but just looked to need the run under the belt. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and is a knockout chance.
Race Six (17:05) : Yellowglen Handicap (1MW) 2100m:
Back Me: 1 Magic Rocket (Bet Now: $5.50) is on the quick back up for the Kersley stable after resuming last Saturday at Ascot where he got back in the run and was never really likely but closed off with purpose. Stable rarely backs them up, but when they do, they should be followed with confidence.
Big Danger: 5 Hot Bresa (Bet Now: $3.50) had been knocking on the door to win a race for sometime and he got that important win last Wednesday over 2200m when making a long searching run and finished best. Been a while between drinks but now that he has got the win on the board, he can go on with it.
Long Shot: 11 Gauged (Bet Now: $14.00) is a handy stayer for the Wolfe yard who looks a threat here at odds. Raced over 2150m last time out at Ascot where he got held up at various stages in the straight when appearing to have plenty to offer. He just needs normal luck here to go close in an open affair.
Race Seven (17:45) : Sky Racing Provincial Championship Final (62+) 1400m:
Back Me: 7 Rikki Tikki Tavi (Bet Now: $10.00) is a horse who has been excellent in two runs back from a spell for the Peter Fernie yard. Bolted up first up before racing again at his home track at Kalgoorlie where he looked home but just lacked the killer punch. Looking for further I think, so third up at 1400m suits and rates highly.
Big Danger: 13 The Dankster (Bet Now: $9.00) was 24 days between runs when racing over 1000m at Ascot last Wednesday where he was short of his ideal trip but he stuck on very well in defeat behind Bells Tower, running third. On the quick back up and rises to 1400m, plus Pike takes over now, which is a very good lead.
Long Shot: 9 Le Patron (Bet Now: $7.50) is a handy mare for the Ben Pearce yard who has performed well in town so she rates highly here. She ran over 1200m at Pinjarra last time out where she got back and took an eternity to wind up but going late to run a close up third. Very good record at Belmont and draws an okay late.
Race Eight (18:25) : D’Orsogna Handicap (72+) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 State Solicitor (Bet Now: $1.70) looks a standout here but there is a bit of reservation. He ran an absolute blinder in the Winterbottom during the Carnival last year. Trialled brilliantly prior to resuming three weeks back over 1200m at Ascot where he was a big flop after being a $1.60 fav. If he brought his best form, he just wins.
Big Danger: 5 Mr Motown (Bet Now: $13.00) is on the quick back up for the Lindsey Smith stable after winning over 1000m at Ascot last Saturday where he appreciated a very fast tempo in front of him before angling clear and finishing off with real purpose to get the job done. Speed is the issue here, but if they go hard, he’s a key threat.
Long Shot: 6 Lenience (Bet Now: $23.00) resumed last Wednesday in an easier race at Ascot and he just looked in need of the run to my eye sixth to Bells Tower, beaten under six lengths. He does have a pretty good second up record and has okay stats at Belmont. Just has to overcome the sticky draw.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 3 State Solicitor
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Astronomite
VALUE: Race Seven Number 7 Rikki Tikki Tavi
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13
Leg Four: 3
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