One of the best racedays in Melbourne for the Autumn is here-Blue Diamond Stakes Day. Nine races, including the $1.5 Million Group l Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m) highlight what should be a fabulous day of racing. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:00) : BMW Mornington Cup Prelude 2000m:
Back Me: 11 Koroibete (Best Odds: $6.50) ran over 1800m here last time out and tried hard but just didn’t have the turn of foot behind Falago. He is at his best when he rolls along in front and if that eventuates here, he’ll take some beating I think at a price.
Big Danger: 4 Tashbeeh (Best Odds: $5.00) has been up for a long time but continues to race very well. He ran second to Falago in that race mentioned above and was very good in defeat. Senior rider goes on now, and despite drawing wide, he is a leading contender.
Roughie: 8 Assign (Best Odds: $3.20) was very impressive in winning first up at Ladbrokes Park considering he was first up and had to lump 62kg which isn’t an easy task at all. Has upside and stable is flying at the moment.
Race Two (13:37) : Ladbrokes Zeditave Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Brockhoff (Best Odds: $7.50) was smashed in betting when resuming at the Valley and that support was justified with a narrow but impressive victory. Time compared well with the older horses on the same night. Back on his home track now and he has looked the part at the jump outs, so I am confident he can take the next step here.
Big Danger: 9 Popovich (Best Odds: $7.00) was huge in winning last time out at Ladbrokes Park, sitting on a hot speed and just kept up a strong gallop to comfortably beat his rivals, and his rivals did look pretty good that afternoon. This is his toughest test to date, but he looks very promising and the times he has been running suggest he can measure up.
Roughie: 2 Odyssey Moon (Best Odds: $21.00) is a talented youngster that joins the Smerdon camp after originally being with Rod Northam. His form was alright in the Spring, and he did look sharp in a recent trial at Cranbourne. Watch for market moves.
Race Three (14:12) : Polytrack Angus Armanasco Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Alaskan Rose (Best Odds: $11.00) is on the back up from last Saturday where she ran sixth in the Vanity (1400m). The run for mine was a bit inconclusive given she didn’t get much room in the straight and the pace was very slow. This is D-Day for her IMO. Either she is a top shelf type or is a tier below. This run will determine that.
Big Danger: 1 Pasadena Girl (Best Odds: $4.40) is a classy filly that resumes for Peter Moody. She ran so well during the Spring and on most occasions she had no luck at all. She was given every chance in the Oaks (2500m) but just didn’t run the trip out behind Jameka. Recent Cranbourne trial win was very impressive and she looks a lot sharper for her first up run here compared to first up last time in.
Roughie: 5 Cana (Best Odds: $7.00) ran in the Kevin Hayes (1200m) last time out and tried hard but was no match for a couple of cracking types in Risque and Mossin’ Around. That form is strong and she should improve now that she has had the experience under the belt around here.
Race Four (14:47) : Caulfield Autumn Classic 1800m:
Back Me: There was plenty to like about the win of 11 Charlevoix (Best Odds: $8.00) at Sandown a couple of weeks back. He got a fair way back in the run and despite taking some riding, he really finished the race off powerfully and won very impressively, with seemingly some upside left in the locker. Mick Kent knows when to step them up so I’ll go with him there.
Big Danger: 5 Patch Adams (Best Odds: $7.50) is on the back up from racing in the CS Hayes (1400m) last weekend where he was not suited at all by the slow tempo. Clearly looking for further, which he gets here, draws well and the patient hands of Nick Hall should suit this horse and his racing pattern.
Roughie: 13 Powderworks (Best Odds: $8.00) was well backed in betting when racing over 1800 at Ladbrokes Park where she just got too far back in the run in a race dominated by those near the speed. I doubt she can beat the stablemate Mahuta, but she is talented and does get the 2kg weight pull.
Race Five (15:25) : Crown Golden Ale Peter Young Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: I am not jumping off 12 Rising Romance (Best Odds: $8.50). I was on her in the Orr and she was one of the real sleepers from the race. She got a long way back in the run and worked home very nicely out wide. Extra 400m is perfect for her and second up last time in she went very close to knocking off Fawkner in the Makybe Diva. Keen on her at an each-way price.
Big Danger: 8 Bow Creek (Best Odds: $4.40) was the obvious unlucky runner in the Orr. He arguably should have won the race because he was going for the same run as Lucky Hussler, but that horse got the run and went within a half length. If he gets normal luck here, he should be right there at the finish. Problem is he might start a tad short.
Roughie: 1 Fawkner (Best Odds: $7.50) also resumed in the Orr and while his run probably wasn’t as good as the two mentioned above, it was satisfactory. He is getting on in years, but he did run a close second to Mourinho in the Underwood at this track/distance second up last time in and on his best form, he is the clear horse to beat.
Race Six (16:05) : Italktravel Futurity Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: Going with the kiwi star 3 Turn Me Loose. (Best Odds: $3.40). He was enormous first up in the Orr Stakes (1400m) where he ran along at a strong tempo and kicked on very strongly when fourth to Suavito, beaten just over a length. He will lead again, and if he can somehow relax a bit better, they won’t get past him. The one to beat.
Big Danger: Nigel Blackiston produced one of the great training efforts when he got 10 Suavito (Best Odds: $6.00) up and running to win the Orr, aided by a peach of a ride from Luke Currie. She was very impressive and looked to have a bit in reserve. There is the worry she will race flat second up after a decent layoff, but Orr winners have a really good record in the Futurity.
Roughie: Big, big watch on 9 The United States (Best Odds: $51.00). Out of all the Lloyd Williams runners, he is potentially the one that could be the star of 2016. The talent is there, as we saw at occasions during the Spring, but he does have a few screws loose upstairs. He comes through the Melbourne Cup where he wasn’t suited by the slow tempo. If the speed is on, which it will be, he’ll be charging late.
Race Seven (16:45) : Ladbrokes Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 11 Concealer (Best Odds: $6.00) was the best run IMO from the Preludes. She got back near last in the run and worked home strongly to run second to Samara Dancer. The extra trip is perfect, fast tempo suits and you know she will be very strong at the end of 1200m, plus fillies have dominated recent years of this race, so I am happy to be with her.
Big Danger: 3 Flying Artie (Best Odds: $6.00) produced a huge performance to win the male edition of the Prelude given he was tardy to begin with and sat wide throughout yet just kept surging and finished off like a good horse to nail Star Turn in the last couple of strides. The talk is that the stable thinks this horse has the potential to be a star, but he will need to improve his barrier manners if he is to win. If he misses the kick, your ticket would almost be confetti.
Roughie: 2 Valliano (Best Odds: $26.00) won the Inglis race here on February 6 and that was over 1200m. He was very strong at the end of that so the 1200m will be no issue. Form out of that race looks ordinary, but his form in the Spring does read well, so I am a bit surprised to see $20+ offered for this runner who is in the right stable.
Race Eight (17:22) : Clamms Seafood Oakleigh Plate 1100m:
Back Me: I have said for a while that 7 Bounding (Best Odds: $6.00) will win a Group l under Team Snowden. I thought it’d come in the Spring but she only raced twice, with the last run being a plain third to Catkins. Her trials in Sydney leading in have been as good as you’d want leading into a Group l, she won first up at this track/distance last time in and given her record, gee she looks well weighted.
Big Danger: With the weight, three year old filly 16 Heatherly (Best Odds: $4.40) looks a major, major threat. Her win in the Rubiton (1100m) here a fortnight back was simply awesome and won by a space, and she really could have won by further had Katelyn Mallyon fully pushed the button. Only 50kg on her back so she’ll bounce to the front, run along, look the winner…last bit will be the test.
Roughie: 15 Vezelay (Best Odds: $41.00) is a classy mare that resumes for Team Corstens. She finished her Spring on a high note when winning the Allinghi Stakes over this track/distance on Caulfield Cup Day. Recent Flemington jump outs have been impressive and is another that looks very well weighted given her record.
Race Nine (18:00) : Premier Signs Mannerism Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 10 Azkadellia (Best Odds: $2.00) looks a good thing here. Her effort first up behind Tuscan Sling was very good I thought considering she looked to have a belly on her and loomed to win but couldn’t quite get the past the winner. Should improve now and with normal luck, she is just better than these.
Big Danger: 2 Wawail (Best Odds: $9.00) resumed in that same race mentioned above and carried topweight. Didn’t really set the world on fire I thought, but the effort was a pass mark. She is a very good mare when at her best so don’t sack her.
Roughie: 3 Tuscan Sling (Best Odds: $5.00) was enormous in winning the race given she was rising big time in grade and was wide no cover on speed for the trip so she was there to be beaten but she kicked on very strongly. I doubt she can beat Azkadellia again but she should run well nonetheless.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 10 Azkadellia
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 3 Turn Me Loose
VALUE: Race Four Number 11 Charlevoix
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 10, 11
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 14, 16
Leg Three: 7, 9, 15, 16, 18
Leg Four: 10
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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