27/4/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Eagle Farm, Victory Stakes day

A strong ten race card has been assembled for Eagle Farm this Saturday where it is Victory Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out seven metres for the entire circuit.

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Can 5 Coral Coast (Bet Now: $2.90) finally go on with it? She’s been a real tease for a while now but couldn’t get the job done. David Vandyke had to take her to a midweek Class One at Doomben for a confidence boost and she certainly got that, spanking them in the mud. She’s blacktype class when at her best and I think a win here could see her earn another crack at that level. Taking a chance on her.

8 Allcash (Bet Now: $7.50) could be an improver here for Chris Waller. Thought he was quite good two back at Doomben behind Sir Barnabus before racing here where he just got too far back in the run and never in the hunt behind Winning Ways. Been a while since he has won, but going off the Doomben run, he’s right in this. Just doesn’t want to give away too much head start.

6 Oakfield Monarch (Bet Now: $7.00) has returned in pretty good order I think for the Tony Gollan stable. Didn’t mind his first up run here behind Benfica Princess before going to the Sunny Coast where he loomed to win but just ran out of condition late when second to Bargannon. Yet to be really proven in town, but off his two runs this time in, he’s capable of filling a first four spot.

I’m all over 10 Gold Ambition (Bet Now: $7.00) for Michael Costa. Thought his first up run behind Prince Of Tie was a beauty before going to the this track/distance two weeks ago where he looked the winner 200m out but his condition just gave out late when third to Le Juge, a hard fit/in form galloper. Now with the two runs under the belt, third up, he looks ready to go.

4 The Chairman (Bet Now: $7.00) is a big improver third up I suspect. Was really good first up behind Tonsor before racing over 1400m here where his booked rider fell ill and was replaced with an apprentice and it was a bit of an ugly watch if you were on behind Scallopini. Getting out to an ideal trip now, has upside and back when trained by Mick Price, his form does read well.

2 Morendi (Bet Now: $13.00) could add some value to exotics. He resumed in the Scallopini race from two weeks ago here and I thought his run was full of merit from the back over an unsuitable trip. 1800m is still probably a tad below what he prefers, but is a proven city winner and I thought the resumption was quite good. Not sure he wins, but goes in all multiples.

13 Insensata (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Jason Coyle trained mare who can be quite frustrating to watch but at her best, she’s clearly up to beating these. This mare ran at Gosford (Metro) last time where she looked plain for the most part but balanced up the last 150m and finished off nicely. I think the bigger track will be really to her liking and stable is going great guns at the moment.

Concede 12 Shogun Sun (Bet Now: $2.05) is likeable given the set up for him, but gee he’s short enough. He comes through an open handicap from two weeks ago where he chased hard along the inside when second to Scallopini. The 1600m I have doubts over, but if ever he’s going to run it, it will be against this class of horse. Just think he’s seriously under his true odds.

5 Impasse (Bet Now: $6.50)  should appreciate getting back to firmer footing. Just found the wet track not to his liking four weeks ago at Doomben when near the speed and fading out of the finish behind Secret Mo. The two runs prior to start the prep were quite good and anything like that is produced here, he’ll take some beating. Just a question mark at a strong mile with him.

Landed with 3 Viral (Bet Now: $6.00), a son of Al Maher resuming for the Toby Edmonds. This bloke hasn’t raced since the early part of the Summer Carnival where he ran fourth in the Vo Rogue before pulling up lame behind Magic Fox. Certainly up to beating these if he’s right and the two trials leading in suggest that he’s indeed ready to go. Happy to be with him here.

10 Veranes (Bet Now: $5.50) is a daughter of Not A Single Doubt for the Chris Waller stable who can be hit and miss but lately has been consistent. Had specking when racing at Toowoomba three weeks ago and finished off strongly from the back to run a close up second to Rock Beat. That form reads well for this…just all depends where she gets to in the run from a tricky draw.

7 Dreamreacher (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Snitzel colt for Gillian Heinrich who is putting together a pretty good record, winning two of his three career runs with a second to city winner Racecourse Road in between. That second came first up, with that horse winning here next start. Dreamreacher then raced at the Sunny Coast and he put them away really impressively. Confident he runs well.

Huge fan of 5 Deep Sea (Bet Now: $3.20) and am confident he can measure up and get the job done for Mark Newnham. He was arrogant when debuting with a win on the Kenso track at Randwick, sitting wide no cover for the most part but ambled to them at the top of the straight and put them away really impressively over the concluding stages. He’s got a bright future and like him alot here.

8 Oh Five Glory (Bet Now: $9.50) is a daughter of Unencumbered for the Hulbert stable resuming. This girl hasn’t raced since the Magic Millions at the Gold Coast when well back in the run but finishing off quite well to run a game fifth to Exhilarates. Resumes without a public trial but seeing the stable post on Twitter that the filly has come back really well and is in good order for this prep is all I need to hear to include her given the form she has.

3 Devil’s Temptation (Bet Now: $10.00) is an interesting runner. Tony Sears trains this youngster, who was very well specked when debuting at this track/distance two weeks ago and the bets were landed. He showed dazzling early toe to lead from the wide gate quite comfortably and he never looked like getting beat, with Sears saying post race that this bloke had worked well with the well performed stablemate Rock Beat. Also said the spelling paddock could be on the cards, so how much upside is left?

17 Angel Dane (Bet Now: $7.50) is a few weeks between runs for the Steve Tregea stable after racing at Toowoomba against the mares and she should have won, simple as that. Just an awful steer from Larry Cassidy cost her the win IMO, going for a run that wasn’t there instead of going inside, where there was clear air. Bigger track and 1400m, looks a good set up for her to run well.

15 Francisca (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Steve O’Dea trained mare who is racing quite consistently at the moment but just can’t crack it for a win at the moment. Ran over the mile at Toowoomba last time where she had a good run in transit and loomed to win the race, but couldn’t quite get there when a narrow third to Ruby Guru, pulling up with mild heat stress. She can win…could I back her to win? No.

16 Canberra (Bet Now: $21.00) is a daughter of Sepoy for Matty Dunn who was just fair when resuming at Doomben behind Happy Hooves before going to Grafton where she got back and worked home well to run second to impressive winner Dantga. She is a third up winner and does seem to like racing on the bigger tracks. Not sure she wins, but could be one for multiples at decent odds.

Waddle the finger and hope for the best here. But I think the safe option is 7 All From Scrap (Bet Now: $8.00) for David Atkins, who ran over 1300m on Toowoomba Cup Day when chasing hard from off the pace and surged late to just miss out on picking up All From Scrap. Like him up to 1400m and the bigger track, plus Orman sticks from a good draw. He looks the safe way to go.

12 New Horizons (Bet Now: $4.20) looks to have returned in pretty good order for the Chris Meagher stable. He ran over 1200m here two weeks ago where I thought Harrison gave the gelding every chance from off the pace, looking the winner for a few strides but the class of Spin kicked in late and he couldn’t hold off the Snowden 3YO. Up to 1400m, third up, he should be ready.

13 Pressway (Bet Now: $10.00) probably isn’t going as well as what he has in previous preparations, but concede with fresh legs here, he can win. Thought his run behind Want To Bolt at Toowoomba was full of merit, getting well back in an on pace dominated affair and got close when fourth, beaten a length. Tends to save his best for Doomben, but fresh legs at Eagle Farm, at his best, he can win.

Think the Derby winner is running here and I have eyes on two. The main one is 2 Trusty Lad (Bet Now: $17.00) for Matt Kropp. Been a big fan of this horse since his 2YO days and he’s had Derby written all over him. His first up run here two weeks ago was outstanding, charging home off a moderate tempo to run second to the speedy customer Racecourse Road. Up to the mile looks perfect, he’s got speed in the legs, upside…plenty to like. Not saying Gem Song can’t win but $1.60/thereabouts is poison odds IMO.

The other horse I like from a Derby perspective is 4 Napoleon Solo (Bet Now: $4.80) for Team Snowden. Showed really good promise in the Summer before being spelled. Resumed in the South Pacific Classic at Randwick and was good in an unsuitable race won by Fasika, but loved the way he ran to the line and through it. 1600m is still too short for him, but he’s got class/quality.

12 Belle Roc (Bet Now: $15.00) is a daughter of Rip Van Winklle for the Brian Smith stable who had been bursting to win a race but had to drop back to the Doomben midweeks to get it done, though it wasn’t a pretty watch. Got a mile back in the run nearer the inside and looked in an impossible spot on the turn but picked up late and got the job done. Hard mile looks right up her alley and is back to her own age.

I think firmer footing and a significant drop in class should see 1 Redzel (Bet Now: $1.60) bounce back into the winners list. If not…then jury is out on whether he should continue or not. He’s been a wonderful sprinter for the Snowden camp, winning both editions of the Everest to date. Resumed with a narrow second in the Challenge behind Ball Of Muscle before two below par runs, with the wet track being against him I think both times. He might be better on top of the ground these days, and that’s what he’ll get here. Jump, run, lead and win I think.

5 I Am Excited (Bet Now: $9.50) can give the champ some sort of race. Thought she was quite good in the Galaxy two back before going to the Sapphire where she was no hope given the race was run, but still made ground behind White Moss. She’s proven to be quite effective when on the road and outside Redzel, this isn’t the strongest race going around, so if he’s off his game, this girl can win.

2 I’m A Rippa (Bet Now: $17.00) probably holds the key to the winning chances of a few here. Bear in mind this horse isn’t a known wet tracker so the forecast for fine weather will be music to his ears, which is why he was scratched from last Saturday on the bog at Doomben. Good fresh performer and liked the way he trialled behind Stella Victoria, and is a tough, tough customer.

Something each way on 14 The Fire Trap (Bet Now: $19.00) in the last. Matty Dunn trains this three year old, who didn’t really fire a shot during the Summer Carnival but contested the best 3YO races up here, including the Magic Millions Guineas where he was outclassed behind Boomsara. Was three lengths off star animal Zoustyle first up last prep and really liked the way he looked in his Gold Coast trial. 1×3 at $20+ seems fine by me.

1 Cadogan (Bet Now: $20.00) is the class of the field and class will carry him a long way here I’m sure despite his GF being a couple of months away. Resumes for Toby Edmonds after an outstanding Spring/Summer prep, which saw him win three on the bounce before running a game fourth in the Magic Millions Cup. Has trialled well leading in and with the claim, he gets in really well.

12 Prince Of Tie (Bet Now: $21.00) is racing in a real purple patch at the moment for the Kelly Schweida stable, winning his past two at the Doomben 1350m, the latest coming four weeks back when getting a soft run on speed and fighting hard late under Lloyd to win. Back to the Eagle Farm 1200m looks no issue for this galloper, he’s in form and likely lands on speed without doing too much work.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Redzel

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 10 Gold Ambition

LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 14 The Fire Trap

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 6, 7, 9, 12, 13

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 12

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 1, 11, 12, 14

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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