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The Adelaide Carnival warms up this Saturday at Morphettville where it is Manihi Classic Day, with the 1100m feature an important lead up towards the Sangster and Goodwood. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

Manihi Stakes 💰: View the Field and Odds for the Manihi Stakes

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Race 1. (13:01) Fleurieu Milk Company Hcp 1100m

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Back Me

I like 2 Karacasu (Bet Now: $3.40) as a horse. I think he’ll be winning races for sure. Whether it’s here or not, not sure, but the debut run was definitely encouraging, which came two weeks back on the Parks track when a closing second to Brother’s Shadow. Being by Kermadec, the extra trip will be ideal.

Danger

1 Brother’s Shadow (Bet Now: $2.40) does look the obvious. He won that race mentioned above and did a pretty good job I thought given he was on speed, off the fence and putting pressure on the horse to his inside. There to be run down but found plenty on the line. Harder here, but hard to knock a horse that is 2/2.

Long Shot

4 Maurice Road (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Matty Seyers trained juvenile that is on debut. Thought he looked decent enough in a Murray Bridge jumpout before going to an Oakbank trial where he ran second and looked to go about his business nicely. Draws soft and Paul Gatt does ride the Seyers runners well.

Race 2. (13:41) Terry Howe Printing Mdn Plate 1050m

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Back Me

13 Who Runs The World (Bet Now: $7.50) has the talent to do a number on these. Just hasn’t put it together on race day. You go back through her form, it just reads far superior to anything engaged here, including Instant Celebrity and Smokin Val. Trial win was good and if she’s ready to go, I think she wins.

Danger

5 Sparkup (Bet Now: $3.70) is three weeks between runs for the Jolly camp since resuming on a red hot Parks track, where it was quite difficult to make up ground. He was wide with cover near last and made up good ground behind Virtue, who didn’t perform that great last Saturday, so form is suspect, but the run in isolation was very good.

Long Shot

I’ll take a chance including first starter 11 Parisienne Monde (Bet Now: $7.50), who debuts for Phillip Stokes after formerly being under the care of Matty Seyers. Well bred filly who has looked sharp in a couple of jumpouts with Seyers to get ready for start one. Now with Stokes, keen to see what the market does with her in what looks a winnable maiden.

Race 3. (14:21) Autumn Carnival 1-15 May-bm70 1600m

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Back Me

5 Montepulciano (Bet Now: $11.00) is on track for the Derby. He resumed in the Morphettville Guineas on Adelaide Cup Day. Was never really a winning threat given the race shape, but loved the way he found the line late for a horse that will appreciate 2000m+. Remaining at the mile is the knock but he’s got a touch of class.

Danger

Is 1 Crown Mint (Bet Now: $4.80) back? I had sacked him after a plain first up, but he was good late next start behind Struck By at Murray Bridge, then was good in the Morphettville Guineas behind the same horse after getting back in the run. He’s hard to trust, but best is clearly good enough to win.

Long Shot

9 Morty (Bet Now: $8.00) has done little wrong this time in for Shayne Cahill. He ran two weeks ago on the Parks track over 1400m and was a real eye catcher late from the back when beaten narrowly by a handy one in Casino Seventeen. The mile, bigger track, more genuine tempo…all points to him running well.

Race 4. (15:01) Holdfast Insurance (rs0mw) 1050m

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Back Me

3 Huffington (Bet Now: $7.00) has been up a little while but continues to hold her form nicely I think. Ran on the Parks track two weeks ago when near a genuine speed throughout and seemingly had her chance but battled on pretty well I thought when third. Think she’ll park off a hot speed and prove hard to hold out late.

Danger

6 Centrefield (Bet Now: $4.80) is on the seven day back up after racing last Saturday on the Parks track. Showed good early toe to lead them up from the tricky gate and fought on pretty well I thought after that early burn when third to Larkham. This race, as a whole, looks thin, and she does have the right racing pattern.

Long Shot

1 Mount Mitty (Bet Now: $11.00) is putting together a tidy little record for Heath Chalmers. Has won four of eleven, the latest being a win over 1200m at Echuca when wearing down a handy animal in Frederick The Dane. Has the inside and early toe, so I suspect Jamie Mott will be positive.

Race 5. (15:41) White Marquee (bm76) 2019m

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Back Me

4 Bramfield (Bet Now: $4.20) is just so genuine and in a tricky race, happy to go her way. She got a 12/10 from Pannell to win at Port Lincoln last time, getting the suck run out the back, trucking up behind the right horses before easing wider and she was too sharp for them on the line. Overall, this race isn’t much harder and she is a winner, something that can’t be said about most of these.

Danger

3 Analytica (Bet Now: $4.80) is a beauty for Travis Doudle that should always be respected in these kind of races. Ran over this trip last time out in the Kimba Cup at Port Lincoln where he lumped the 60kg and ran a super race, getting run down late by an in form Bramfield. Knocking on the door to win one and gets his chance.

Long Shot

9 Enbarr (Bet Now: $11.00) is an interesting runner. He looked a good thing on Sunday at Bordertown but the track was upgraded to a Firm2 and he was scratched. He led throughout to win at Edenhope last start and was dominant, winning by over five lengths. Keen to see how he goes at metro level.

Race 6. (16:21) Furphy Ht 3 Autumn Series-bm60 1200m

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Back Me

14 Lope De Wolf (Bet Now: $13.00) is several weeks between runs for the Francis/Kent camp since finishing powerfully to win at this track/distance, beating Midnight Storm, who won last Saturday, so the form does read well enough and he is a horse who does like to race when he has freshness in the legs so like the break between runs.

Danger

3 Like A Heartbeat (Bet Now: $8.50) looks to have returned well. Market didn’t want him when resuming at Balaklava and while it was right, he didn’t win, the run was still good from the back without a whole lot of luck in running second. His two previous second up runs were poor, and usually bounces back hard third up, so market will be interesting.

Long Shot

16 Narrative Star (Bet Now: $23.00) should be okay at 1200m for the McEvoy team. She ran over 1000m three weeks ago on the Parks track and worked to the line pretty well without threatening when fourth to impressive winner Appalachian. This isn’t a strong race, so she doesn’t need to improve much to be around the mark.

Race 7. (17:01) Manihi Classic 1100m

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Back Me

5 Humma Humma (Bet Now: $4.20) is an absolute beauty for John McArdle that looks really hard to beat in a race like this. Resumed several weeks ago down the Flemington straight and closed off strongly late when a close up third to Fabergino, beaten a length. Fresh is best for her and a truly run 1100m is her sweet spot. The one to beat.

Danger

7 Elderflower (Bet Now: $7.00) is a speed demon that will make sure this is a proper 1100m contest. Ran two weeks ago over 1000m here on the Parks track. Opperman just went too slow on her. Her best asset is speed and Opperman put the handbrakes on, which allowed eventual winner Propelle to get the suck run behind and dash better. Jump and run, she’ll take running down.

Long Shot

4 Shamino (Bet Now: $14.00) returns to SA and I think he can be dangerous. Had a good stint in Melbourne, highlighted by a win in the Doveton at Sandown. Probably hasn’t gone on with it since, but he has contested some strong races. If he brings anywhere near his best, a win wouldn’t shock at all.

Race 8. (17:37) Clare Lindop Stakes 1600m

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Back Me

5 Scream Dream (Bet Now: $4.20) is heading in the right direction to my eye. Lloyd Kennewell trained filly that has raced over 1400m at Pakenham her past couple. Certainty beaten two back before making amends last start, bolting up and landing big bets in the process. Racing as if she will lap up the mile, hard fit, in form…she’ll do me.

Danger

1 Victoria Quay (Bet Now: $4.40) deserves another chance. Notable betting drift first up in the Morphettville Guineas and it was spot on. She had to chase a strong speed from around the 800m mark and couldn’t sustain it, finishing a tiring sixth. Has the runs on the board from the Spring to give her another chance.

Long Shot

8 Biarchi (Bet Now: $27.00) looks to be back on track towards the SA Oaks. Thought she was plain fresh behind subsequent Morphettville Guineas winner Struck By. She then raced over 1400m on the Parks track and warmed to the task late in a good effort behind Casino Seventeen. If she can progress off that, she’s in the mix.

Race 9. (18:15) Tab (bm68) 1600m

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Back Me

14 Crown Harmonium (Bet Now: $5.00) is in career best form for John Hickmott and I think he can continue that here. Ran three weeks ago over 1550m on the Parks track where he was off the speed, not the spot to be, but kept finding the line in making up ground, running second to Heir Of Tavistock. Think he only runs well against these.

Danger

16 Rose Tiara (Bet Now: $13.00) has done a good job this time in for Phillip Stokes. The distance is the query with her, but she’s racing well and rarely putting in a bad one. Loomed to win two weeks ago on the Parks track over 1250m, but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to a handy one in Skilled Bunch. Hard to beat against these.

Long Shot

15 Echo Boomer (Bet Now: $9.00) can bounce back here. Forget she went around on the Parks track last time behind Heir Of Tavistock. Was back near last in the run and it was a day where if you weren’t in the first few, you had no chance, so forgive and forget the run. Prior efforts suggested she could run well in a race like this.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Two Number 13 Who Runs The World

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 5 Montepulciano

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 14 Crown Harmonium

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 9, 14, 16, 17

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7

Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 8

Leg Four: 2, 14, 15, 16

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